Deep Learning and Radiomics predict complete response after neo-adjuvant chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer

Abstract Treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer involves chemoradiation, followed by total mesorectum excision. Complete response after chemoradiation is an accurate surrogate for long-term local control. Predicting complete response from pre-treatment features could represent a major step towards conservative treatment. Patients with a T2-4 N0-1 rectal adenocarcinoma treated between June 2010 and October 2016 with neo-adjuvant chemoradiation from three academic institutions were included. All clinical and treatment data was integrated in our clinical data warehouse, from which we extracted the features. Radiomics features were extracted from the tumor volume from the treatment planning CT Scan. A Deep Neural Network (DNN) was created to predict complete response, as a methodological proof-of-principle. The results were compared to a baseline Linear Regression model using only the TNM stage as a predictor and a second model created with Support Vector Machine on the same features used in the DNN. Ninety-five patients were included in the final analysis. There were 49 males (52%) and 46 females (48%). Median tumour size was 48 mm (15–130). Twenty-two patients (23%) had pathologic complete response after chemoradiation. One thousand six hundred eighty-three radiomics features were extracted. The DNN predicted complete response with an 80% accuracy, which was better than the Linear Regression model (69.5%) and the SVM model (71.58%). Our model correctly predicted complete response after neo-adjuvant rectal chemoradiotherapy in 80% of the patients of this multicenter cohort. Our results may help to identify patients who would benefit from a conservative treatment, rather than a radical resection.