Thor Aspelund

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and ∼ 2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 × 10⁻⁸), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.

A genome-wide association (GWA) study of more than 180,000 individuals has identified hundreds of genetic variants in at least 180 loci associated with adult human height. The loci are not clustered randomly but are enriched for genes involved in growth-related processes that influence adult height. This demonstrates that GWA studies of common human traits, and therefore of many diseases, can identify large numbers of loci that implicate potential causal genes. This very large genome-wide association study identifies hundreds of new genetic variants influencing adult height in at least 180 loci enriched for genes involved in skeletal growth defects. The results show that the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant, that many loci have multiple independently associated variants and that associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes. Most common human traits and diseases have a polygenic pattern of inheritance: DNA sequence variants at many genetic loci influence the phenotype. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified more than 600 variants associated with human traits1, but these typically explain small fractions of phenotypic variation, raising questions about the use of further studies. Here, using 183,727 individuals, we show that hundreds of genetic variants, in at least 180 loci, influence adult height, a highly heritable and classic polygenic trait2,3. The large number of loci reveals patterns with important implications for genetic studies of common human diseases and traits. First, the 180 loci are not random, but instead are enriched for genes that are connected in biological pathways (P = 0.016) and that underlie skeletal growth defects (P < 0.001). Second, the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant: in 13 of 21 loci containing a known skeletal growth gene, that gene was closest to the associated variant. Third, at least 19 loci have multiple independently associated variants, suggesting that allelic heterogeneity is a frequent feature of polygenic traits, that comprehensive explorations of already-discovered loci should discover additional variants and that an appreciable fraction of associated loci may have been identified. Fourth, associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes, being over-represented among variants that alter amino-acid structure of proteins and expression levels of nearby genes. Our data explain approximately 10% of the phenotypic variation in height, and we estimate that unidentified common variants of similar effect sizes would increase this figure to approximately 16% of phenotypic variation (approximately 20% of heritable variation). Although additional approaches are needed to dissect the genetic architecture of polygenic human traits fully, our findings indicate that GWA studies can identify large numbers of loci that implicate biologically relevant genes and pathways.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalenceand progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)*

Blood pressure is a major cardiovascular disease risk factor. To date, few variants associated with interindividual blood pressure variation have been identified and replicated. Here we report results of a genome-wide association study of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure and hypertension in the CHARGE Consortium (n = 29,136), identifying 13 SNPs for SBP, 20 for DBP and 10 for hypertension at P < 4 × 10(-7). The top ten loci for SBP and DBP were incorporated into a risk score; mean BP and prevalence of hypertension increased in relation to the number of risk alleles carried. When ten CHARGE SNPs for each trait were included in a joint meta-analysis with the Global BPgen Consortium (n = 34,433), four CHARGE loci attained genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for SBP (ATP2B1, CYP17A1, PLEKHA7, SH2B3), six for DBP (ATP2B1, CACNB2, CSK-ULK3, SH2B3, TBX3-TBX5, ULK4) and one for hypertension (ATP2B1). Identifying genes associated with blood pressure advances our understanding of blood pressure regulation and highlights potential drug targets for the prevention or treatment of hypertension.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have recently identified CLU, PICALM, and CR1 as novel genes for late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD).To identify and strengthen additional loci associated with AD and confirm these in an independent sample and to examine the contribution of recently identified genes to AD risk prediction in a 3-stage analysis of new and previously published GWAS on more than 35,000 persons (8371 AD cases).In stage 1, we identified strong genetic associations (P < 10(-3)) in a sample of 3006 AD cases and 14,642 controls by combining new data from the population-based Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (1367 AD cases [973 incident]) with previously reported results from the Translational Genomics Research Institute and the Mayo AD GWAS. We identified 2708 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P < 10(-3). In stage 2, we pooled results for these SNPs with the European AD Initiative (2032 cases and 5328 controls) to identify 38 SNPs (10 loci) with P < 10(-5). In stage 3, we combined data for these 10 loci with data from the Genetic and Environmental Risk in AD consortium (3333 cases and 6995 controls) to identify 4 SNPs with P < 1.7x10(-8). These 4 SNPs were replicated in an independent Spanish sample (1140 AD cases and 1209 controls). Genome-wide association analyses were completed in 2007-2008 and the meta-analyses and replication in 2009.Presence of Alzheimer disease.Two loci were identified to have genome-wide significance for the first time: rs744373 near BIN1 (odds ratio [OR],1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.06-1.21 per copy of the minor allele; P = 1.59x10(-11)) and rs597668 near EXOC3L2/BLOC1S3/MARK4 (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29; P = 6.45x10(-9)). Associations of these 2 loci plus the previously identified loci CLU and PICALM with AD were confirmed in the Spanish sample (P < .05). However, although CLU and PICALM were confirmed to be associated with AD in this independent sample, they did not improve the ability of a model that included age, sex, and APOE to predict incident AD (improvement in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.847 to 0.849 in the Rotterdam Study and 0.702 to 0.705 in the Cardiovascular Health Study).Two genetic loci for AD were found for the first time to reach genome-wide statistical significance. These findings were replicated in an independent population. Two recently reported associations were also confirmed. These loci did not improve AD risk prediction. While not clinically useful, they may implicate biological pathways useful for future research.

Fernando Rivadeneira and colleagues in the Genetic Factors for Osteoporosis Consortium report a large-scale meta-analysis identifying new loci associated with bone mineral density (BMD) and risk of fracture. Thirty-two new loci are found to be associated with BMD, and 6 loci confer higher risk for low-trauma bone fracture. Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻¹³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Recent genome-wide association studies have described many loci implicated in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology and β-cell dysfunction but have contributed little to the understanding of the genetic basis of insulin resistance. We hypothesized that genes implicated in insulin resistance pathways might be uncovered by accounting for differences in body mass index (BMI) and potential interactions between BMI and genetic variants. We applied a joint meta-analysis approach to test associations with fasting insulin and glucose on a genome-wide scale. We present six previously unknown loci associated with fasting insulin at P < 5 × 10(-8) in combined discovery and follow-up analyses of 52 studies comprising up to 96,496 non-diabetic individuals. Risk variants were associated with higher triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, suggesting a role for these loci in insulin resistance pathways. The discovery of these loci will aid further characterization of the role of insulin resistance in T2D pathophysiology.

Limited information is available regarding genetic contributions to valvular calcification, which is an important precursor of clinical valve disease.We determined genomewide associations with the presence of aortic-valve calcification (among 6942 participants) and mitral annular calcification (among 3795 participants), as detected by computed tomographic (CT) scanning; the study population for this analysis included persons of white European ancestry from three cohorts participating in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (discovery population). Findings were replicated in independent cohorts of persons with either CT-detected valvular calcification or clinical aortic stenosis.One SNP in the lipoprotein(a) (LPA) locus (rs10455872) reached genomewide significance for the presence of aortic-valve calcification (odds ratio per allele, 2.05; P=9.0×10(-10)), a finding that was replicated in additional white European, African-American, and Hispanic-American cohorts (P<0.05 for all comparisons). Genetically determined Lp(a) levels, as predicted by LPA genotype, were also associated with aortic-valve calcification, supporting a causal role for Lp(a). In prospective analyses, LPA genotype was associated with incident aortic stenosis (hazard ratio per allele, 1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32 to 2.15) and aortic-valve replacement (hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.27) in a large Swedish cohort; the association with incident aortic stenosis was also replicated in an independent Danish cohort. Two SNPs (rs17659543 and rs13415097) near the proinflammatory gene IL1F9 achieved genomewide significance for mitral annular calcification (P=1.5×10(-8) and P=1.8×10(-8), respectively), but the findings were not replicated consistently.Genetic variation in the LPA locus, mediated by Lp(a) levels, is associated with aortic-valve calcification across multiple ethnic groups and with incident clinical aortic stenosis. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others.).

Aortic stiffness increases with age and vascular risk factor exposure and is associated with increased risk for structural and functional abnormalities in the brain. High ambient flow and low impedance are thought to sensitize the cerebral microcirculation to harmful effects of excessive pressure and flow pulsatility. However, haemodynamic mechanisms contributing to structural brain lesions and cognitive impairment in the presence of high aortic stiffness remain unclear. We hypothesized that disproportionate stiffening of the proximal aorta as compared with the carotid arteries reduces wave reflection at this important interface and thereby facilitates transmission of excessive pulsatile energy into the cerebral microcirculation, leading to microvascular damage and impaired function. To assess this hypothesis, we evaluated carotid pressure and flow, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, brain magnetic resonance images and cognitive scores in participants in the community-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility--Reykjavik study who had no history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack or dementia (n = 668, 378 females, 69-93 years of age). Aortic characteristic impedance was assessed in a random subset (n = 422) and the reflection coefficient at the aorta-carotid interface was computed. Carotid flow pulsatility index was negatively related to the aorta-carotid reflection coefficient (R = -0.66, P<0.001). Carotid pulse pressure, pulsatility index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity were each associated with increased risk for silent subcortical infarcts (hazard ratios of 1.62-1.71 per standard deviation, P<0.002). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was associated with higher white matter hyperintensity volume (0.108 ± 0.045 SD/SD, P = 0.018). Pulsatility index was associated with lower whole brain (-0.127 ± 0.037 SD/SD, P<0.001), grey matter (-0.079 ± 0.038 SD/SD, P = 0.038) and white matter (-0.128 ± 0.039 SD/SD, P<0.001) volumes. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (-0.095 ± 0.043 SD/SD, P = 0.028) and carotid pulse pressure (-0.114 ± 0.045 SD/SD, P = 0.013) were associated with lower memory scores. Pulsatility index was associated with lower memory scores (-0.165 ± 0.039 SD/SD, P<0.001), slower processing speed (-0.118 ± 0.033 SD/SD, P<0.001) and worse performance on tests assessing executive function (-0.155 ± 0.041 SD/SD, P<0.001). When magnetic resonance imaging measures (grey and white matter volumes, white matter hyperintensity volumes and prevalent subcortical infarcts) were included in cognitive models, haemodynamic associations were attenuated or no longer significant, consistent with the hypothesis that increased aortic stiffness and excessive flow pulsatility damage the microcirculation, leading to quantifiable tissue damage and reduced cognitive performance. Marked stiffening of the aorta is associated with reduced wave reflection at the interface between carotid and aorta, transmission of excessive flow pulsatility into the brain, microvascular structural brain damage and lower scores in various cognitive domains.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem, and recent genetic studies have identified common CKD susceptibility variants. The CKDGen consortium performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 67,093 individuals of European ancestry from 20 predominantly population-based studies in order to identify new susceptibility loci for reduced renal function as estimated by serum creatinine (eGFRcrea), serum cystatin c (eGFRcys) and CKD (eGFRcrea < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2); n = 5,807 individuals with CKD (cases)). Follow-up of the 23 new genome-wide-significant loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)) in 22,982 replication samples identified 13 new loci affecting renal function and CKD (in or near LASS2, GCKR, ALMS1, TFDP2, DAB2, SLC34A1, VEGFA, PRKAG2, PIP5K1B, ATXN2, DACH1, UBE2Q2 and SLC7A9) and 7 loci suspected to affect creatinine production and secretion (CPS1, SLC22A2, TMEM60, WDR37, SLC6A13, WDR72 and BCAS3). These results further our understanding of the biologic mechanisms of kidney function by identifying loci that potentially influence nephrogenesis, podocyte function, angiogenesis, solute transport and metabolic functions of the kidney.

Background Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation ( AF ) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors. Methods and Results Individual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the U nited S tates (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ ARIC ] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [ CHS ], and the Framingham Heart Study [ FHS ]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% A frican A mericans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study ( AGES ) and the Rotterdam Study ( RS ). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI , 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI , 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI , −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable ( AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI , 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI , 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate. Conclusion A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the U nited S tates and E urope.

Changes over time in epigenetic marks, which are modifications of DNA such as by DNA methylation, may help explain the late onset of common human diseases. However, changes in methylation or other epigenetic marks over time in a given individual have not yet been investigated.To determine whether there are longitudinal changes in global DNA methylation in individuals and to evaluate whether methylation maintenance demonstrates familial clustering.We measured global DNA methylation by luminometric methylation assay, a quantitative measurement of genome-wide DNA methylation, on DNA sampled at 2 visits on average 11 years apart in 111 individuals from an Icelandic cohort (1991 and 2002-2005) and on average 16 years apart in 126 individuals from a Utah sample (1982-1985 and 1997-2005).Global methylation changes over time.Twenty-nine percent of Icelandic individuals showed greater than 10% methylation change over time (P < .001). The family-based Utah sample also showed intra-individual changes over time, and further demonstrated familial clustering of methylation change (P = .003). The family showing the greatest global methylation loss also demonstrated the greatest loss of gene-specific methylation by a separate methylation assay.These data indicate that methylation changes over time and suggest that methylation maintenance may be under genetic control.

In anticipation of the sequencing of the human genome and description of the human proteome, the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study (AGES–Reykjavik) was initiated in 2002. AGES–Reykjavik was designed to examine risk factors, including genetic susceptibility and gene/environment interaction, in relation to disease and disability in old age. The study is multidisciplinary, providing detailed phenotypes related to the cardiovascular, neurocognitive (including sensory), and musculoskeletal systems, and to body composition and metabolic regulation. Relevant quantitative traits, subclinical indicators of disease, and medical diagnoses are identified by using biomarkers, imaging, and other physiologic indicators. The AGES–Reykjavik sample is drawn from an established population-based cohort, the Reykjavik Study. This cohort of men and women born between 1907 and 1935 has been followed in Iceland since 1967 by the Icelandic Heart Association. The AGES–Reykjavik cohort, with cardiovascular risk factor assessments earlier in life and detailed late-life phenotypes of quantitative traits, will create a comprehensive study of aging nested in a relatively genetically homogeneous older population. This approach should facilitate identification of genetic factors that contribute to healthy aging as well as the chronic conditions common in old age.

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a heritable marker of chronic inflammation that is strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. We sought to identify genetic variants that are associated with CRP levels.We performed a genome-wide association analysis of CRP in 66 185 participants from 15 population-based studies. We sought replication for the genome-wide significant and suggestive loci in a replication panel comprising 16 540 individuals from 10 independent studies. We found 18 genome-wide significant loci, and we provided evidence of replication for 8 of them. Our results confirm 7 previously known loci and introduce 11 novel loci that are implicated in pathways related to the metabolic syndrome (APOC1, HNF1A, LEPR, GCKR, HNF4A, and PTPN2) or the immune system (CRP, IL6R, NLRP3, IL1F10, and IRF1) or that reside in regions previously not known to play a role in chronic inflammation (PPP1R3B, SALL1, PABPC4, ASCL1, RORA, and BCL7B). We found a significant interaction of body mass index with LEPR (P<2.9×10(-6)). A weighted genetic risk score that was developed to summarize the effect of risk alleles was strongly associated with CRP levels and explained ≈5% of the trait variance; however, there was no evidence for these genetic variants explaining the association of CRP with coronary heart disease.We identified 18 loci that were associated with CRP levels. Our study highlights immune response and metabolic regulatory pathways involved in the regulation of chronic inflammation.

To identify loci for age at menarche, we performed a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies in 87,802 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,731 women. In addition to the known loci at LIN28B (P = 5.4 × 10⁻⁶⁰) and 9q31.2 (P = 2.2 × 10⁻³³), we identified 30 new menarche loci (all P < 5 × 10⁻⁸) and found suggestive evidence for a further 10 loci (P < 1.9 × 10⁻⁶). The new loci included four previously associated with body mass index (in or near FTO, SEC16B, TRA2B and TMEM18), three in or near other genes implicated in energy homeostasis (BSX, CRTC1 and MCHR2) and three in or near genes implicated in hormonal regulation (INHBA, PCSK2 and RXRG). Ingenuity and gene-set enrichment pathway analyses identified coenzyme A and fatty acid biosynthesis as biological processes related to menarche timing.

Proteins circulating in the blood are critical for age-related disease processes; however, the serum proteome has remained largely unexplored. To this end, 4137 proteins covering most predicted extracellular proteins were measured in the serum of 5457 Icelanders over 65 years of age. Pairwise correlation between proteins as they varied across individuals revealed 27 different network modules of serum proteins, many of which were associated with cardiovascular and metabolic disease states, as well as overall survival. The protein modules were controlled by cis- and trans-acting genetic variants, which in many cases were also associated with complex disease. This revealed co-regulated groups of circulating proteins that incorporated regulatory control between tissues and demonstrated close relationships to past, current, and future disease states.

The electrocardiographic PR interval (or PQ interval) reflects atrial and atrioventricular nodal conduction, disturbances of which increase risk of atrial fibrillation. We report a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for PR interval from seven population-based European studies in the CHARGE Consortium: AGES, ARIC, CHS, FHS, KORA, Rotterdam Study, and SardiNIA (N = 28,517). We identified nine loci associated with PR interval at P < 5 x 10(-8). At the 3p22.2 locus, we observed two independent associations in voltage-gated sodium channel genes, SCN10A and SCN5A. Six of the loci were near cardiac developmental genes, including CAV1-CAV2, NKX2-5 (CSX1), SOX5, WNT11, MEIS1, and TBX5-TBX3, providing pathophysiologically interesting candidate genes. Five of the loci, SCN5A, SCN10A, NKX2-5, CAV1-CAV2, and SOX5, were also associated with atrial fibrillation (N = 5,741 cases, P < 0.0056). This suggests a role for common variation in ion channel and developmental genes in atrial and atrioventricular conduction as well as in susceptibility to atrial fibrillation.

Numerous genetic loci have been associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in Europeans. We now report genome-wide association studies of pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). In discovery (N = 74,064) and follow-up studies (N = 48,607), we identified at genome-wide significance (P = 2.7 × 10(-8) to P = 2.3 × 10(-13)) four new PP loci (at 4q12 near CHIC2, 7q22.3 near PIK3CG, 8q24.12 in NOV and 11q24.3 near ADAMTS8), two new MAP loci (3p21.31 in MAP4 and 10q25.3 near ADRB1) and one locus associated with both of these traits (2q24.3 near FIGN) that has also recently been associated with SBP in east Asians. For three of the new PP loci, the estimated effect for SBP was opposite of that for DBP, in contrast to the majority of common SBP- and DBP-associated variants, which show concordant effects on both traits. These findings suggest new genetic pathways underlying blood pressure variation, some of which may differentially influence SBP and DBP.

Pulmonary function measures reflect respiratory health and are used in the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We tested genome-wide association with forced expiratory volume in 1 second and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity in 48,201 individuals of European ancestry with follow up of the top associations in up to an additional 46,411 individuals. We identified new regions showing association (combined P < 5 × 10(-8)) with pulmonary function in or near MFAP2, TGFB2, HDAC4, RARB, MECOM (also known as EVI1), SPATA9, ARMC2, NCR3, ZKSCAN3, CDC123, C10orf11, LRP1, CCDC38, MMP15, CFDP1 and KCNE2. Identification of these 16 new loci may provide insight into the molecular mechanisms regulating pulmonary function and into molecular targets for future therapy to alleviate reduced lung function.

We conducted meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for atrial fibrillation (AF) in participants from five community-based cohorts. Meta-analyses of 896 prevalent (15,768 referents) and 2,517 incident (21,337 referents) AF cases identified a new locus for AF (ZFHX3, rs2106261, risk ratio RR = 1.19; P = 2.3 x 10(-7)). We replicated this association in an independent cohort from the German AF Network (odds ratio = 1.44; P = 1.6 x 10(-11); combined RR = 1.25; combined P = 1.8 x 10(-15)).

<h3>Importance</h3> Interstitial lung abnormalities have been associated with lower 6-minute walk distance, diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, and total lung capacity. However, to our knowledge, an association with mortality has not been previously investigated. <h3>Objective</h3> To investigate whether interstitial lung abnormalities are associated with increased mortality. <h3>Design, Setting, and Population</h3> Prospective cohort studies of 2633 participants from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; computed tomographic [CT] scans obtained September 2008-March 2011), 5320 from the AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility; recruited January 2002-February 2006), 2068 from the COPDGene Study (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; recruited November 2007-April 2010), and 1670 from ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; between December 2005-December 2006). <h3>Exposures</h3> Interstitial lung abnormality status as determined by chest CT evaluation. <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> All-cause mortality over an approximate 3- to 9-year median follow-up time. Cause-of-death information was also examined in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort. <h3>Results</h3> Interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%) of the 2633 participants from FHS, 378 (7%) of 5320 from AGES-Reykjavik, 156 (8%) of 2068 from COPDGene, and in 157 (9%) of 1670 from ECLIPSE. Over median follow-up times of approximately 3 to 9 years, there were more deaths (and a greater absolute rate of mortality) among participants with interstitial lung abnormalities when compared with those who did not have interstitial lung abnormalities in the following cohorts: 7% vs 1% in FHS (6% difference [95% CI, 2% to 10%]), 56% vs 33% in AGES-Reykjavik (23% difference [95% CI, 18% to 28%]), and 11% vs 5% in ECLIPSE (6% difference [95% CI, 1% to 11%]). After adjustment for covariates, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a higher risk of death in the FHS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7 [95% CI, 1.1 to 6.5];<i>P</i> = .03), AGES-Reykjavik (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4];<i>P</i> &lt; .001), COPDGene (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8];<i>P</i> = .01), and ECLIPSE (HR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0];<i>P</i> = .02) cohorts. In the AGES-Reykjavik cohort, the higher rate of mortality could be explained by a higher rate of death due to respiratory disease, specifically pulmonary fibrosis. <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> In 4 separate research cohorts, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality. The clinical implications of this association require further investigation.

Measurements of erythrocytes within the blood are important clinical traits and can indicate various hematological disorders. We report here genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for six erythrocyte traits, including hemoglobin concentration (Hb), hematocrit (Hct), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) and red blood cell count (RBC). We performed an initial GWAS in cohorts of the CHARGE Consortium totaling 24,167 individuals of European ancestry and replication in additional independent cohorts of the HaemGen Consortium totaling 9,456 individuals. We identified 23 loci significantly associated with these traits in a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts (combined P values ranging from 5 x 10(-8) to 7 x 10(-86)). Our findings include loci previously associated with these traits (HBS1L-MYB, HFE, TMPRSS6, TFR2, SPTA1) as well as new associations (EPO, TFRC, SH2B3 and 15 other loci). This study has identified new determinants of erythrocyte traits, offering insight into common variants underlying variation in erythrocyte measures.

The QRS interval, from the beginning of the Q wave to the end of the S wave on an electrocardiogram, reflects ventricular depolarization and conduction time and is a risk factor for mortality, sudden death and heart failure. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis in 40,407 individuals of European descent from 14 studies, with further genotyping in 7,170 additional Europeans, and we identified 22 loci associated with QRS duration (P < 5 × 10(-8)). These loci map in or near genes in pathways with established roles in ventricular conduction such as sodium channels, transcription factors and calcium-handling proteins, but also point to previously unidentified biologic processes, such as kinase inhibitors and genes related to tumorigenesis. We demonstrate that SCN10A, a candidate gene at the most significantly associated locus in this study, is expressed in the mouse ventricular conduction system, and treatment with a selective SCN10A blocker prolongs QRS duration. These findings extend our current knowledge of ventricular depolarization and conduction.

To newly identify loci for age at natural menopause, we carried out a meta-analysis of 22 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 38,968 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,435 women. In addition to four known loci, we identified 13 loci newly associated with age at natural menopause (at P < 5 × 10(-8)). Candidate genes located at these newly associated loci include genes implicated in DNA repair (EXO1, HELQ, UIMC1, FAM175A, FANCI, TLK1, POLG and PRIM1) and immune function (IL11, NLRP11 and PRRC2A (also known as BAT2)). Gene-set enrichment pathway analyses using the full GWAS data set identified exoDNase, NF-κB signaling and mitochondrial dysfunction as biological processes related to timing of menopause.

A genome-scale, gene-specific analysis of DNA methylation in the same individuals over a decade apart identifies a personalized epigenomic signature that may correlate with a common genetic trait.

Diabetes is an independent risk factor for heart failure, whereas the relation between heart failure and abnormal glucose regulation (AGR) needs further evaluation. We studied this combination in the Reykjavik Study.The Reykjavik Study, a population-based cohort study during 1967-1997, recruited 19,381 participants aged 33-84 years who were followed until 2002. Oral glucose tolerance tests and chest X-rays were obtained from all participants. Cases were defined in accordance with World Health Organization criteria for type 2 diabetes or AGR (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose) and European Society of Cardiology guidelines for heart failure.The overall prevalence of type 2 diabetes and heart failure was 0.5% in men and 0.4% in women, while AGR and heart failure were found in 0.7% of men and 0.6% of women. Among participants with normal glucose regulation, heart failure was diagnosed in 3.2% compared with 6.0 and 11.8% among those with AGR and type 2 diabetes, respectively. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the age-group 45-65 years increased in both sexes during the period (P for trend = 0.007). The odds ratio was 2.8 (95% CI 2.2-3.6) for the association between type 2 diabetes and heart failure and 1.7 (1.4-2.1) between AGR and heart failure.There is a strong association between any form of glucometabolic perturbation and heart failure. Future studies in this field should focus on all types of glucose abnormalities rather than previously diagnosed diabetes only.

Background— Elevated serum urate levels can lead to gout and are associated with cardiovascular risk factors. We performed a genome-wide association study to search for genetic susceptibility loci for serum urate and gout and investigated the causal nature of the associations of serum urate with gout and selected cardiovascular risk factors and coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods and Results— Meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed in 5 population-based cohorts of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genome Epidemiology consortium for serum urate and gout in 28 283 white participants. The effect of the most significant single-nucleotide polymorphism at all genome-wide significant loci on serum urate was added to create a genetic urate score. Findings were replicated in the Women's Genome Health Study (n=22 054). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms at 8 genetic loci achieved genome-wide significance with serum urate levels ( P =4×10 −8 to 2×10 −242 in SLC22A11, GCKR, R3HDM2-INHBC region, RREB1, PDZK1 , SLC2A9, ABCG2 , and SLC17A1 ). Only 2 loci ( SLC2A9, ABCG2 ) showed genome-wide significant association with gout. The genetic urate score was strongly associated with serum urate and gout (odds ratio, 12.4 per 100 μmol/L; P =3×10 −39 ) but not with blood pressure, glucose, estimated glomerular filtration rate, chronic kidney disease, or CHD. The lack of association between the genetic score and the latter phenotypes also was observed in the Women's Genome Health Study. Conclusions— The genetic urate score analysis suggested a causal relationship between serum urate and gout but did not provide evidence for one between serum urate and cardiovascular risk factors and CHD.

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) detected by computed tomography is a noninvasive measure of coronary atherosclerosis, which underlies most cases of myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to identify common genetic variants associated with CAC and further investigate their associations with MI.Computed tomography was used to assess quantity of CAC. A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for CAC was performed in 9961 men and women from 5 independent community-based cohorts, with replication in 3 additional independent cohorts (n=6032). We examined the top single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CAC quantity for association with MI in multiple large genome-wide association studies of MI. Genome-wide significant associations with CAC for SNPs on chromosome 9p21 near CDKN2A and CDKN2B (top SNP: rs1333049; P=7.58×10(-19)) and 6p24 (top SNP: rs9349379, within the PHACTR1 gene; P=2.65×10(-11)) replicated for CAC and for MI. Additionally, there is evidence for concordance of SNP associations with both CAC and MI at a number of other loci, including 3q22 (MRAS gene), 13q34 (COL4A1/COL4A2 genes), and 1p13 (SORT1 gene).SNPs in the 9p21 and PHACTR1 gene loci were strongly associated with CAC and MI, and there are suggestive associations with both CAC and MI of SNPs in additional loci. Multiple genetic loci are associated with development of both underlying coronary atherosclerosis and clinical events.

André Uitterlinden and colleagues report loci at 9q31.2 and LIN28B associated with age at menarche from a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies including 17,510 females from eight different population-based cohorts. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data to detect genes influencing age at menarche in 17,510 women. The strongest signal was at 9q31.2 (P = 1.7 × 10−9), where the nearest genes include TMEM38B, FKTN, FSD1L, TAL2 and ZNF462. The next best signal was near the LIN28B gene (rs7759938; P = 7.0 × 10−9), which also influences adult height. We provide the first evidence for common genetic variants influencing female sexual maturation.

Central abdominal fat is a strong risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. To identify common variants influencing central abdominal fat, we conducted a two-stage genome-wide association analysis for waist circumference (WC). In total, three loci reached genome-wide significance. In stage 1, 31,373 individuals of Caucasian descent from eight cohort studies confirmed the role of FTO and MC4R and identified one novel locus associated with WC in the neurexin 3 gene [NRXN3 (rs10146997, p = 6.4x10(-7))]. The association with NRXN3 was confirmed in stage 2 by combining stage 1 results with those from 38,641 participants in the GIANT consortium (p = 0.009 in GIANT only, p = 5.3x10(-8) for combined analysis, n = 70,014). Mean WC increase per copy of the G allele was 0.0498 z-score units (0.65 cm). This SNP was also associated with body mass index (BMI) [p = 7.4x10(-6), 0.024 z-score units (0.10 kg/m(2)) per copy of the G allele] and the risk of obesity (odds ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19; p = 3.2x10(-5) per copy of the G allele). The NRXN3 gene has been previously implicated in addiction and reward behavior, lending further evidence that common forms of obesity may be a central nervous system-mediated disorder. Our findings establish that common variants in NRXN3 are associated with WC, BMI, and obesity.

The genetic contribution to longevity in humans has been estimated to range from 15% to 25%. Only two genes, APOE and FOXO3, have shown association with longevity in multiple independent studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies including 6,036 longevity cases, age ≥90 years, and 3,757 controls that died between ages 55 and 80 years. We additionally attempted to replicate earlier identified single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with longevity. In our meta-analysis, we found suggestive evidence for the association of SNPs near CADM2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.81; p value = 9.66 × 10−7) and GRIK2 (odds ratio = 1.24; p value = 5.09 × 10−8) with longevity. When attempting to replicate findings earlier identified in genome-wide association studies, only the APOE locus consistently replicated. In an additional look-up of the candidate gene FOXO3, we found that an earlier identified variant shows a highly significant association with longevity when including published data with our meta-analysis (odds ratio = 1.17; p value = 1.85×10−10). We did not identify new genome-wide significant associations with longevity and did not replicate earlier findings except for APOE and FOXO3. Our inability to find new associations with survival to ages ≥90 years because longevity represents multiple complex traits with heterogeneous genetic underpinnings, or alternatively, that longevity may be regulated by rare variants that are not captured by standard genome-wide genotyping and imputation of common variants.

<h3>Context</h3>Unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) is prognostically important. Electrocardiography (ECG) has limited sensitivity for detecting unrecognized MI (UMI).<h3>Objective</h3>Determine prevalence and mortality risk for UMI detected by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging or ECG among older individuals.<h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3>ICELAND MI is a cohort substudy of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study (enrollment January 2004-January 2007) using ECG or CMR to detect UMI. From a community-dwelling cohort of older individuals in Iceland, data for 936 participants aged 67 to 93 years were analyzed, including 670 who were randomly selected and 266 with diabetes.<h3>Main Outcome Measures</h3>Prevalence and mortality of MI through September 1, 2011. Results reported with 95% confidence limits and net reclassification improvement (NRI).<h3>Results</h3>Of 936 participants, 91 had recognized MI (RMI) (9.7%; 95% CI, 8% to 12%), and 157 had UMI detected by CMR (17%; 95% CI, 14% to 19%), which was more prevalent than the 46 UMI detected by ECG (5%; 95% CI, 4% to 6%; P &lt; .001). Participants with diabetes (n = 337) had more UMI detected by CMR than by ECG (n = 72; 21%; 95% CI, 17% to 26%, vs n = 15; 4%; 95% CI, 2% to 7%; P &lt; .001). Unrecognized MI by CMR was associated with atherosclerosis risk factors, coronary calcium, coronary revascularization, and peripheral vascular disease. Over a median of 6.4 years, 30 of 91 participants (33%; 95% CI, 23% to 43%) with RMI died, and 44 of 157 participants (28%; 95% CI, 21% to 35%) with UMI died, both higher rates than the 119 of 688 participants (17%; 95% CI, 15% to 20%) with no MI who died. Unrecognized MI by CMR improved risk stratification for mortality over RMI (NRI, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.16 to 0.53). Adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, and RMI, UMI by CMR remained associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.06, absolute risk increase [ARI], 8%) and significantly improved risk stratification for mortality (NRI, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.31), but UMI by ECG did not (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.73; ARI, −2%; NRI, −0.05; 95% CI, −0.17 to 0.05). Compared with those with RMI, participants with UMI by CMR used cardiac medications such as statins less often (36%; 95% CI, 28% to 43%, or 56/157, vs 73%; 95% CI, 63% to 82%, or 66/91; P &lt; .001).<h3>Conclusions</h3>In a community-based cohort of older individuals, the prevalence of UMI by CMR was higher than the prevalence of RMI and was associated with increased mortality risk. In contrast, UMI by ECG prevalence was lower than that of RMI and was not associated with increased mortality risk.<h3>Trial Registration</h3>clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01322568

BackgroundComparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.MethodsFor this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.FindingsWe pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.InterpretationThe height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.FundingWellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

To quantify associations of chronic kidney disease stages with major cardiovascular disease and non-vascular mortality in the general adult population.Prospective population based cohort study.Reykjavik, Iceland.16 958 people aged 33-81 years without manifest vascular disease and with available information on stage of chronic kidney disease (defined by both estimated glomerular filtration rate and urinary protein) at study entry.Hazard ratios for time to major coronary heart disease outcomes and mortality.1210 (7%) of participants had chronic kidney disease at entry. During a median follow-up of 24 years, 4010 coronary heart disease outcomes, 559 deaths from stroke, and 3875 deaths from non-vascular causes were recorded. Compared with the reference group (estimated glomerular filtration rate 75-89 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and no proteinuria), people with lower renal function within the normal range of glomerular filtration rate did not have significantly higher risk of coronary heart disease. By contrast, in 1210 (7%) participants with chronic kidney disease at entry, hazard ratios for coronary heart disease, adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, were 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.35) for stage 1, 1.72 (1.30 to 2.24) for stage 2, 1.39 (1.22 to 1.58) for stage 3a, 1.90 (1.22 to 2.96) for stage 3b, and 4.29 (1.78 to 10.32) for stage 4. Information on chronic kidney disease increased discrimination and reclassification indices for coronary heart disease when added to conventional risk factors (P<0.01). The incremental gain provided by chronic kidney disease was lower than that provided by diabetes or smoking (C index increases of 0.0015, 0.0024, and 0.0124 respectively). Hazard ratios with chronic kidney disease were 0.97 (0.82 to 1.15) for cancer mortality and 1.26 (1.07 to 1.50) for other non-vascular mortality.In people without manifest vascular disease, even the earliest stages of chronic kidney disease are associated with excess risk of subsequent coronary heart disease. Assessment of chronic kidney disease in addition to conventional risk factors modestly improves prediction of risk for coronary heart disease in this population. Further studies are needed to investigate associations between chronic kidney disease and non-vascular mortality from causes other than cancer.

ABSTRACT Finite element analysis of computed tomography (CT) scans provides noninvasive estimates of bone strength at the spine and hip. To further validate such estimates clinically, we performed a 5-year case-control study of 1110 women and men over age 65 years from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort (case = incident spine or hip fracture; control = no incident spine or hip fracture). From the baseline CT scans, we measured femoral and vertebral strength, as well as bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip (areal BMD only) and lumbar spine (trabecular volumetric BMD only). We found that for incident radiographically confirmed spine fractures (n = 167), the age-adjusted odds ratio for vertebral strength was significant for women (2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 4.3) and men (2.2, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.2) and for men remained significant (p = 0.01) independent of vertebral trabecular volumetric BMD. For incident hip fractures (n = 171), the age-adjusted odds ratio for femoral strength was significant for women (4.2, 95% CI 2.6 to 6.9) and men (3.5, 95% CI 2.3 to 5.3) and remained significant after adjusting for femoral neck areal BMD in women and for total hip areal BMD in both sexes; fracture classification improved for women by combining femoral strength with femoral neck areal BMD (p = 0.002). For both sexes, the probabilities of spine and hip fractures were similarly high at the BMD-based interventional thresholds for osteoporosis and at corresponding preestablished thresholds for “fragile bone strength” (spine: women ≤ 4500 N, men ≤ 6500 N; hip: women ≤ 3000 N, men ≤ 3500 N). Because it is well established that individuals over age 65 years who have osteoporosis at the hip or spine by BMD criteria should be considered at high risk of fracture, these results indicate that individuals who have fragile bone strength at the hip or spine should also be considered at high risk of fracture. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality.In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488.We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and <30 nmol/L were 1.15 (1.00-1.29), 1.33 (1.16-1.51), and 1.67 (1.44-1.89), respectively. We observed similar results for cardiovascular mortality, but there was no significant linear association between 25(OH)D and cancer mortality. There was also no significantly increased mortality risk at high 25(OH)D levels up to 125 nmol/L.In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths.

Identification of genetic risk factors for albuminuria may alter strategies for early prevention of CKD progression, particularly among patients with diabetes. Little is known about the influence of common genetic variants on albuminuria in both general and diabetic populations. We performed a meta-analysis of data from 63,153 individuals of European ancestry with genotype information from genome-wide association studies (CKDGen Consortium) and from a large candidate gene study (CARe Consortium) to identify susceptibility loci for the quantitative trait urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and the clinical diagnosis microalbuminuria. We identified an association between a missense variant (I2984V) in the <i>CUBN</i> gene, which encodes cubilin, and both UACR (<i>P</i> = 1.1 × 10⁻¹¹) and microalbuminuria (<i>P</i> = 0.001). We observed similar associations among 6981 African Americans in the CARe Consortium. The associations between this variant and both UACR and microalbuminuria were significant in individuals of European ancestry regardless of diabetes status. Finally, this variant associated with a 41% increased risk for the development of persistent microalbuminuria during 20 years of follow-up among 1304 participants with type 1 diabetes in the prospective DCCT/EDIC Study. In summary, we identified a missense <i>CUBN</i> variant that associates with levels of albuminuria in both the general population and in individuals with diabetes.

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10(-8)). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events.

Epigenetic studies are commonly conducted on DNA from tissue samples. However, tissues are ensembles of cells that may each have their own epigenetic profile, and therefore inter-individual cellular heterogeneity may compromise these studies. Here, we explore the potential for such confounding on DNA methylation measurement outcomes when using DNA from whole blood. DNA methylation was measured using pyrosequencing-based methodology in whole blood (n = 50–179) and in two white blood cell fractions (n = 20), isolated using density gradient centrifugation, in four CGIs (CpG Islands) located in genes HHEX (10 CpG sites assayed), KCNJ11 (8 CpGs), KCNQ1 (4 CpGs) and PM20D1 (7 CpGs). Cellular heterogeneity (variation in proportional white blood cell counts of neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils and basophils, counted by an automated cell counter) explained up to 40% (p<0.0001) of the inter-individual variation in whole blood DNA methylation levels in the HHEX CGI, but not a significant proportion of the variation in the other three CGIs tested. DNA methylation levels in the two cell fractions, polymorphonuclear and mononuclear cells, differed significantly in the HHEX CGI; specifically the average absolute difference ranged between 3.4–15.7 percentage points per CpG site. In the other three CGIs tested, methylation levels in the two fractions did not differ significantly, and/or the difference was more moderate. In the examined CGIs, methylation levels were highly correlated between cell fractions. In summary, our analysis detects region-specific differential DNA methylation between white blood cell subtypes, which can confound the outcome of whole blood DNA methylation measurements. Finally, by demonstrating the high correlation between methylation levels in cell fractions, our results suggest a possibility to use a proportional number of a single white blood cell type to correct for this confounding effect in analyses.

Abstract High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Recently, quantitative metabolomics identified a panel of 10 plasma lipids that were highly predictive of conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in cognitively normal older individuals (n = 28, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.92, sensitivity/specificity of 90%/90%).Quantitative targeted metabolomics in serum using an identical method as in the index study.We failed to replicate these findings in a substantially larger study from two independent cohorts-the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging ([BLSA], n = 93, AUC = 0.642, sensitivity/specificity of 51.6%/65.7%) and the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study ([AGES-RS], n = 100, AUC = 0.395, sensitivity/specificity of 47.0%/36.0%). In analyses applying machine learning methods to all 187 metabolite concentrations assayed, we find a modest signal in the BLSA with distinct metabolites associated with the preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD, whereas the same methods gave poor classification accuracies in the AGES-RS samples.We believe that ours is the largest blood biomarker study of preclinical AD to date. These findings underscore the importance of large-scale independent validation of index findings from biomarker studies with relatively small sample sizes.

Long-term mental and physical health consequences of COVID-19 (long COVID) are a persistent public health concern. Little is still known about the long-term mental health of non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with varying illness severities. Our aim was to assess the prevalence of adverse mental health symptoms among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the general population by acute infection severity up to 16 months after diagnosis.This observational follow-up study included seven prospectively planned cohorts across six countries (Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK). Participants were recruited from March 27, 2020, to Aug 13, 2021. Individuals aged 18 years or older were eligible to participate. In a cross-sectional analysis, we contrasted symptom prevalence of depression, anxiety, COVID-19-related distress, and poor sleep quality (screened with validated mental health instruments) among individuals with and without a diagnosis of COVID-19 at entry, 0-16 months from diagnosis. In a cohort analysis, we further used repeated measures to estimate the change in mental health symptoms before and after COVID-19 diagnosis.The analytical cohort consisted of 247 249 individuals, 9979 (4·0%) of whom were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the study period. Mean follow-up was 5·65 months (SD 4·26). Participants diagnosed with COVID-19 presented overall with a higher prevalence of symptoms of depression (prevalence ratio [PR] 1·18 [95% CI 1·03-1·36]) and poorer sleep quality (1·13 [1·03-1·24]) but not symptoms of anxiety (0·97 [0·91-1·03]) or COVID-19-related distress (1·05 [0·93-1·20]) compared with individuals without a COVID-19 diagnosis. Although the prevalence of depression and COVID-19-related distress attenuated with time, individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 but never bedridden due to their illness were consistently at lower risk of depression (PR 0·83 [95% CI 0·75-0·91]) and anxiety (0·77 [0·63-0·94]) than those not diagnosed with COVID-19, whereas patients who were bedridden for more than 7 days were persistently at higher risk of symptoms of depression (PR 1·61 [95% CI 1·27-2·05]) and anxiety (1·43 [1·26-1·63]) than those not diagnosed throughout the study period.Severe acute COVID-19 illness-indicated by extended time bedridden-is associated with long-term mental morbidity among recovering individuals in the general population. These findings call for increased vigilance of adverse mental health development among patients with a severe acute disease phase of COVID-19.Nordforsk, Horizon2020, Wellcome Trust, and Estonian Research Council.

With the growing number of genetic association studies, the genotype-phenotype atlas has become increasingly more complex, yet the functional consequences of most disease associated alleles is not understood. The measurement of protein level variation in solid tissues and biofluids integrated with genetic variants offers a path to deeper functional insights. Here we present a large-scale proteogenomic study in 5,368 individuals, revealing 4,035 independent associations between genetic variants and 2,091 serum proteins, of which 36% are previously unreported. The majority of both cis- and trans-acting genetic signals are unique for a single protein, although our results also highlight numerous highly pleiotropic genetic effects on protein levels and demonstrate that a protein's genetic association profile reflects certain characteristics of the protein, including its location in protein networks, tissue specificity and intolerance to loss of function mutations. Integrating protein measurements with deep phenotyping of the cohort, we observe substantial enrichment of phenotype associations for serum proteins regulated by established GWAS loci, and offer new insights into the interplay between genetics, serum protein levels and complex disease.

Incidental foci of signal loss suggestive of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are frequent findings on gradient echo T2* weighted MRI (T2* MRI) of patients with haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke. There are few prevalence data on older populations. This paper reports on the prevalence and location of CMBs in a community based cohort of older men and women (born 1907-1935) who participated in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study, a population based cohort study that followed the Reykjavik StudyAs part of the examination, all eligible and consenting cohort members underwent a full brain MRI, and blood was drawn for genotyping. Results are based on the first 1962 men (n = 820) and women (n = 1142), mean age 76 years, with complete MRI and demographic information available.Evidence of CMBs was found in 218 participants (11.1% (95% CI 9.8% to 12.6%)); men had significantly more CMBs than women (14.4% vs 8.8%; p = 0.0002, age adjusted). The prevalence of CMBs increased with age (p = 0.0001) in both men (p = 0.006) and women (p = 0.007). CMBs were located in the cerebral lobes (70%), the basal ganglia region (10.5%) and infratentorium (18.6%). Having a CMB was significantly associated with a homozygote Apo E epsilon4epsilon4 genotype (p = 0.01).Cerebral microbleeds are common in older persons. The association with homozygote Apo E epsilon4 genotype and finding a relative predominance in the parietal lobes might indicate an association with amyloid angiopathy.

Variation in serum bilirubin is associated with altered cardiovascular disease risk and drug metabolism. We aimed to identify genetic contributors to variability in serum bilirubin levels by combining results from three genome-wide association studies (Framingham heart study, n = 3424; Rotterdam study, n = 3847; Age, Gene, Environment and Susceptibility-Reykjavik, n = 2193). Meta-analysis showed strong replication for a genetic influence on serum bilirubin levels of the UGT1A1 locus (P < 5 x 10(-324)) and a 12p12.2 locus. The peak signal in the 12p12.2 region was a non-synonymous SNP in SLCO1B1 (rs4149056, P = 6.7 x 10(-13)), which gives rise to a valine to alanine amino acid change leading to reduced activity for a hepatic transporter with known affinity for bilirubin. There were also suggestive associations with several other loci. The top variants in UGT1A1 and SLCO1B1 explain approximately 18.0 and approximately 1.0% of the variation in total serum bilirubin levels, respectively. In a conditional analysis adjusted for individual genotypes for the top UGT1A1 variant, the top SLCO1B1 variant remained highly significant (P = 7.3 x 10(-13)), but no other variants achieved genome-wide significance. In one of the largest genetic studies of bilirubin to date (n = 9464), we confirm the substantial genetic influence of UGT1A1 variants, consistent with past linkage and association studies, and additionally provide strong evidence of a role for allelic variation in SLCO1B1. Given the involvement of bilirubin in a number of physiological and disease processes, and the roles for UGT1A1 and SLCO1B1 in drug metabolism, these genetic findings have potential clinical importance. In analyses for association with gallbladder disease or gallstones, top bilirubin SNPs in UGT1A1 and SLCO1B1 were not associated.

White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) detectable by magnetic resonance imaging are part of the spectrum of vascular injury associated with aging of the brain and are thought to reflect ischemic damage to the small deep cerebral vessels. WMHs are associated with an increased risk of cognitive and motor dysfunction, dementia, depression, and stroke. Despite a significant heritability, few genetic loci influencing WMH burden have been identified.We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for WMH burden in 9,361 stroke-free individuals of European descent from 7 community-based cohorts. Significant findings were tested for replication in 3,024 individuals from 2 additional cohorts.We identified 6 novel risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1 locus on chromosome 17q25 encompassing 6 known genes including WBP2, TRIM65, TRIM47, MRPL38, FBF1, and ACOX1. The most significant association was for rs3744028 (p(discovery) = 4.0 × 10(-9) ; p(replication) = 1.3 × 10(-7) ; p(combined) = 4.0 × 10(-15) ). Other SNPs in this region also reaching genome-wide significance were rs9894383 (p = 5.3 × 10(-9) ), rs11869977 (p = 5.7 × 10(-9) ), rs936393 (p = 6.8 × 10(-9) ), rs3744017 (p = 7.3 × 10(-9) ), and rs1055129 (p = 4.1 × 10(-8) ). Variant alleles at these loci conferred a small increase in WMH burden (4-8% of the overall mean WMH burden in the sample).This large GWAS of WMH burden in community-based cohorts of individuals of European descent identifies a novel locus on chromosome 17. Further characterization of this locus may provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of cerebral WMH.

Migraine is considered to be an episodic condition with no long-term consequences. However, recent studies suggest that migraine attacks may be associated with pathologic changes in the brain, particularly in the cerebellum.To determine whether individuals not reporting headache compared with individuals reporting migraine symptoms, particularly aura, in midlife are at increased risk of late-life infarct-like lesions found on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) without consideration of clinical symptoms.A population-based study of men and women in Reykjavik, Iceland (cohort born 1907-1935; n = 4689; 57% women) were followed up since 1967, examined, and interviewed about migraine symptoms in midlife (mean age, 51 years; range, 33-65 years). Between 2002 and 2006, more than 26 years later, brain MRIs were performed. Participants reporting headaches once or more per month were asked about migraine symptoms including nausea, unilateral location, photophobia, visual disturbance, and numbness. These individuals with headache were classified as having migraine without aura, migraine with aura, or nonmigraine headache. A comprehensive cardiovascular risk assessment was performed at both examinations.Presence of infarct-like lesions (total) and specifically located in the cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar regions.Infarct-like lesions were present in 39.3% of men and 24.6% of women. After adjusting for age, sex, and follow-up time, compared with those not reporting headaches once or more per month (n = 3243), those with midlife migraine with aura (n = 361) had an increased risk of late-life infarct-like lesions (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.8) that specifically reflected an association with cerebellar lesions in women (prevalence of infarcts 23.0% for women with migraine with aura vs 14.5% for women not reporting headaches; adjusted OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6 vs a 19.3% prevalence of infarcts for men with migraine with aura vs 21.3% for men not reporting headaches; adjusted OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.8; P<.04 for interaction by sex). Migraine without aura and nonmigraine headache were not associated with an increased risk.Migraine with aura in midlife was associated with late-life prevalence of cerebellar infarct-like lesions on MRI. This association was statistically significant only for women. This is consistent with the hypothesis that migraine with aura in midlife is associated with late-life vascular disease in the cerebellum and in women.

Magnesium, potassium, and sodium, cations commonly measured in serum, are involved in many physiological processes including energy metabolism, nerve and muscle function, signal transduction, and fluid and blood pressure regulation. To evaluate the contribution of common genetic variation to normal physiologic variation in serum concentrations of these cations, we conducted genome-wide association studies of serum magnesium, potassium, and sodium concentrations using approximately 2.5 million genotyped and imputed common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 15,366 participants of European descent from the international CHARGE Consortium. Study-specific results were combined using fixed-effects inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. SNPs demonstrating genome-wide significant (p<5 x 10(-8)) or suggestive associations (p<4 x 10(-7)) were evaluated for replication in an additional 8,463 subjects of European descent. The association of common variants at six genomic regions (in or near MUC1, ATP2B1, DCDC5, TRPM6, SHROOM3, and MDS1) with serum magnesium levels was genome-wide significant when meta-analyzed with the replication dataset. All initially significant SNPs from the CHARGE Consortium showed nominal association with clinically defined hypomagnesemia, two showed association with kidney function, two with bone mineral density, and one of these also associated with fasting glucose levels. Common variants in CNNM2, a magnesium transporter studied only in model systems to date, as well as in CNNM3 and CNNM4, were also associated with magnesium concentrations in this study. We observed no associations with serum sodium or potassium levels exceeding p<4 x 10(-7). Follow-up studies of newly implicated genomic loci may provide additional insights into the regulation and homeostasis of human serum magnesium levels.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem with a genetic component. We performed genome-wide association studies in up to 130,600 European ancestry participants overall, and stratified for key CKD risk factors. We uncovered 6 new loci in association with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the primary clinical measure of CKD, in or near MPPED2, DDX1, SLC47A1, CDK12, CASP9, and INO80. Morpholino knockdown of mpped2 and casp9 in zebrafish embryos revealed podocyte and tubular abnormalities with altered dextran clearance, suggesting a role for these genes in renal function. By providing new insights into genes that regulate renal function, these results could further our understanding of the pathogenesis of CKD.

Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years.

There are few studies on the long-term associations of physical activity (PA) to cognition. Here, we examine the association of midlife PA to late-life cognitive function and dementia.The sample consisted of a population-based cohort of men and women (born in 1907-1935) participating in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. The interval between the midlife ascertainment of PA and late-life cognitive function was 26 years. Composite scores of speed of processing, memory, and executive function were assessed with a battery of neuropsychological tests, and dementia was diagnosed according to international guidelines. There were 4,761 nondemented participants and 184 (3.7%) with a diagnosis of dementia, with complete data for the analysis.Among the participants, no midlife PA was reported by 68.8%, ≤ 5 hours PA by 26.5%, and >5 hours PA by 4.5%. Excluding participants with dementia compared with the no PA group, both PA groups had significantly faster speed of processing (≤ 5 hours, β = .22; >5 hours, β = .32, p trend < .0001), better memory (≤ 5 hours, β = .15; >5 hours, β = .18, p trend < .0001), and executive function (≤ 5 hours, β = .09; >5 hours, β = .18, p trend< .0001), after controlling for demographic and cardiovascular factors. The ≤ 5 hours PA group was significantly less likely to have dementia in late life (odds ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.88) after adjusting for confounders.Midlife PA may contribute to maintenance of cognitive function and may reduce or delay the risk of late-life dementia.

Associations between circulating markers of dysglycaemia and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in people without diabetes have not been reliably characterised. We report new data from a prospective study and a systematic review to help quantify these associations.Fasting and post-load glucose levels were measured in 18,569 participants in the population-based Reykjavik study, yielding 4,664 incident CHD outcomes during 23.5 y of mean follow-up. In people with no known history of diabetes at the baseline survey, the hazard ratio (HR) for CHD, adjusted for several conventional risk factors, was 2.37 (95% CI 1.79-3.14) in individuals with fasting glucose > or = 7.0 mmol/l compared to those < 7 mmol/l. At fasting glucose values below 7 mmol/l, adjusted HRs were 0.95 (0.89-1.01) per 1 mmol/l higher fasting glucose and 1.03 (1.01-1.05) per 1 mmol/l higher post-load glucose. HRs for CHD risk were generally modest and nonsignificant across tenths of glucose values below 7 mmol/l. We did a meta-analysis of 26 additional relevant prospective studies identified in a systematic review of Western cohort studies that recorded fasting glucose, post-load glucose, or glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) levels. In this combined analysis, in which participants with a self-reported history of diabetes and/or fasting blood glucose > or = 7 mmol/l at baseline were excluded, relative risks for CHD, adjusted for several conventional risk factors, were: 1.06 (1.00-1.12) per 1 mmol/l higher fasting glucose (23 cohorts, 10,808 cases, 255,171 participants); 1.05 (1.03-1.07) per 1 mmol/l higher post-load glucose (15 cohorts, 12,652 cases, 102,382 participants); and 1.20 (1.10-1.31) per 1% higher HbA(1c) (9 cohorts, 1639 cases, 49,099 participants).In the Reykjavik Study and a meta-analysis of other Western prospective studies, fasting and post-load glucose levels were modestly associated with CHD risk in people without diabetes. The meta-analysis suggested a somewhat stronger association between HbA(1c) levels and CHD risk.

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information.We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS.B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with cognitive decline independent of stroke, suggesting additional effects of AF on the brain. We aimed to assess the association between AF and brain function and structure in a general elderly population.This is a cross-sectional analysis of 4251 nondemented participants (mean age, 76 ± 5 years) in the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. Medical record data were collected for the presence, subtype, and time from first diagnosis of AF; 330 participants had AF. Brain volume measurements, adjusted for intracranial volume, and presence of cerebral infarcts were determined with magnetic resonance imaging. Memory, speed of processing, and executive function composites were calculated from a cognitive test battery. In a multivariable linear regression model, adjustments were made for demographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and cerebral infarcts.Participants with AF had lower total brain volume compared with those without AF (P<0.001). The association was stronger with persistent/permanent than paroxysmal AF and with increased time from the first diagnosis of the disease. Of the brain tissue volumes, AF was associated with lower volume of gray and white matter hyperintensities (P<0.001 and P = 0.008, respectively), but not of white matter hyperintensities (P = 0.49). Participants with AF scored lower on tests of memory.AF is associated with smaller brain volume, and the association is stronger with increasing burden of the arrhythmia. These findings suggest that AF has a cumulative negative effect on the brain independent of cerebral infarcts.

It is important to identify possible pathological mechanisms that underlie the known sexual dimorphism in bone fragility in old age. In this cross-sectional population-based study, we use data from three different skeletal sites to examine sex differences in volumetric bone density, geometry and strength indices and determine whether sex differences in these bone strength measures continue to increase into very old age. A total of 1715 elderly individuals (807 men and 908 women) age 67–93 years, participants in a population-based study, the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (AGES-REYKJAVIK) and not taking medications affecting bone metabolism, were studied. Quantitative computed tomography (QCT) was performed in the lumbar spine, hip and mid-femoral shaft to estimate volumetric trabecular, cortical and integral BMD, bone geometry and bone strength indices. Regression models were used to assess the effects of age and gender-adjustment for standing midlife height and current weight. At age 67–69 years, men had 24.9–31.7% larger cross-sectional bone size at measured sites than women. At all bone sites, women had two- to fivefold diminution in net bone mass with age compared to men but had comparable increments in bone size (1.8–6.0% per 10 years). This was reflected in significantly worse (more than twofold) bone strength measures with age in women, including compressive strength indices at the spine, femoral neck and trochanter and bending strength indices at the femoral neck. With the limitations of a cross-sectional study, our data support the hypothesis that sex differences in bone strength continue into old age. These sex differences appear to be due to greater net bone loss in women rather than due to greater bone gain in men.

The aim of this study was to reduce the frequency of diabetic eye-screening visits, while maintaining safety, by using information technology and individualised risk assessment to determine screening intervals.A mathematical algorithm was created based on epidemiological data on risk factors for diabetic retinopathy. Through a website, www.risk.is , the algorithm receives clinical data, including type and duration of diabetes, HbA(1c) or mean blood glucose, blood pressure and the presence and grade of retinopathy. These data are used to calculate risk for sight-threatening retinopathy for each individual's worse eye over time. A risk margin is defined and the algorithm recommends the screening interval for each patient with standardised risk of developing sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) within the screening interval. We set the risk margin so that the same number of patients develop STR within the screening interval with either fixed annual screening or our individualised screening system. The database for diabetic retinopathy at the Department of Ophthalmology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, was used to empirically test the efficacy of the algorithm. Clinical data exist for 5,199 patients for 20 years and this allows testing of the algorithm in a prospective manner.In the Danish diabetes database, the algorithm recommends screening intervals ranging from 6 to 60 months with a mean of 29 months. This is 59% fewer visits than with fixed annual screening. This amounts to 41 annual visits per 100 patients.Information technology based on epidemiological data may facilitate individualised determination of screening intervals for diabetic eye disease. Empirical testing suggests that this approach may be less expensive than conventional annual screening, while not compromising safety. The algorithm determines individual risk and the screening interval is individually determined based on each person's risk profile. The algorithm has potential to save on healthcare resources and patients' working hours by reducing the number of screening visits for an ever increasing number of diabetic patients in the world.

There is increasing evidence that the microcirculation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases. Changes in retinal vascular caliber reflect early microvascular disease and predict incident cardiovascular events. We performed a genome-wide association study to identify genetic variants associated with retinal vascular caliber. We analyzed data from four population-based discovery cohorts with 15,358 unrelated Caucasian individuals, who are members of the Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and replicated findings in four independent Caucasian cohorts (n = 6,652). All participants had retinal photography and retinal arteriolar and venular caliber measured from computer software. In the discovery cohorts, 179 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) spread across five loci were significantly associated (p<5.0×10(-8)) with retinal venular caliber, but none showed association with arteriolar caliber. Collectively, these five loci explain 1.0%-3.2% of the variation in retinal venular caliber. Four out of these five loci were confirmed in independent replication samples. In the combined analyses, the top SNPs at each locus were: rs2287921 (19q13; p = 1.61×10(-25), within the RASIP1 locus), rs225717 (6q24; p = 1.25×10(-16), adjacent to the VTA1 and NMBR loci), rs10774625 (12q24; p = 2.15×10(-13), in the region of ATXN2,SH2B3 and PTPN11 loci), and rs17421627 (5q14; p = 7.32×10(-16), adjacent to the MEF2C locus). In two independent samples, locus 12q24 was also associated with coronary heart disease and hypertension. Our population-based genome-wide association study demonstrates four novel loci associated with retinal venular caliber, an endophenotype of the microcirculation associated with clinical cardiovascular disease. These data provide further insights into the contribution and biological mechanisms of microcirculatory changes that underlie cardiovascular disease.

Stephanie London, Martin Tobin and colleagues report meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function that reflects lung volume. They identify six regions newly associated with FVC and demonstrate that candidate genes at these loci are expressed in lung tissue and primary lung cells. Forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function, reflects lung volume and is used to diagnose and monitor lung diseases. We performed genome-wide association study meta-analysis of FVC in 52,253 individuals from 26 studies and followed up the top associations in 32,917 additional individuals of European ancestry. We found six new regions associated at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) with FVC in or near EFEMP1, BMP6, MIR129-2–HSD17B12, PRDM11, WWOX and KCNJ2. Two loci previously associated with spirometric measures (GSTCD and PTCH1) were related to FVC. Newly implicated regions were followed up in samples from African-American, Korean, Chinese and Hispanic individuals. We detected transcripts for all six newly implicated genes in human lung tissue. The new loci may inform mechanisms involved in lung development and the pathogenesis of restrictive lung disease.

We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0% (AGES) and 63.6% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64% of risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may yield insights into longevity.We performed a meta-analysis of GWAS in Caucasians from four prospective cohort studies: the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study, the Cardiovascular Health Study, the Framingham Heart Study, and the Rotterdam Study participating in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. Longevity was defined as survival to age 90 years or older (n = 1,836); the comparison group comprised cohort members who died between the ages of 55 and 80 years (n = 1,955). In a second discovery stage, additional genotyping was conducted in the Leiden Longevity Study cohort and the Danish 1905 cohort.There were 273 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with p < .0001, but none reached the prespecified significance level of 5 x 10(-8). Of the most significant SNPs, 24 were independent signals, and 16 of these SNPs were successfully genotyped in the second discovery stage, with one association for rs9664222, reaching 6.77 x 10(-7) for the combined meta-analysis of CHARGE and the stage 2 cohorts. The SNP lies in a region near MINPP1 (chromosome 10), a well-conserved gene involved in regulation of cellular proliferation. The minor allele was associated with lower odds of survival past age 90 (odds ratio = 0.82). Associations of interest in a homologue of the longevity assurance gene (LASS3) and PAPPA2 were not strengthened in the second stage.Survival studies of larger size or more extreme or specific phenotypes may support or refine these initial findings.

In this prospective nested case-control study we analyzed the circumferential differences in estimated cortical thickness (Est CTh) of the mid femoral neck as a risk factor for osteoporotic hip fractures in elderly women and men. Segmental QCT analysis of the mid femoral neck was applied to assess cortical thickness in anatomical quadrants. The superior region of the femoral neck was a stronger predictor for hip fracture than the inferior region, particularly in men. There were significant gender differences in Est CTh measurements in the control group but not in the case group. In multivariable analysis for risk of femoral neck (FN) fracture, Est CTh in the supero-anterior (SA) quadrant was significant in both women and men, and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for FN areal BMD (aBMD, dimensions g/cm2, DXA-like), (p = 0.05 and p < 0.0001, respectively). In conclusion, Est CTh in the SA quadrant best discriminated cases (n = 143) from controls (n = 298), especially in men. Cortical thinning superiorly in the hip might be of importance in determining resistance to fracture.

Genetic factors explain a majority of risk variance for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). While genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for late AMD implicate genes in complement, inflammatory and lipid pathways, the genetic architecture of early AMD has been relatively under studied. We conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of early AMD, including 4,089 individuals with prevalent signs of early AMD (soft drusen and/or retinal pigment epithelial changes) and 20,453 individuals without these signs. For various published late AMD risk loci, we also compared effect sizes between early and late AMD using an additional 484 individuals with prevalent late AMD. GWAS meta-analysis confirmed previously reported association of variants at the complement factor H (CFH) (peak P = 1.5×10(-31)) and age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) (P = 4.3×10(-24)) loci, and suggested Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphisms (rs2075650; P = 1.1×10(-6)) associated with early AMD. Other possible loci that did not reach GWAS significance included variants in the zinc finger protein gene GLI3 (rs2049622; P = 8.9×10(-6)) and upstream of GLI2 (rs6721654; P = 6.5×10(-6)), encoding retinal Sonic hedgehog signalling regulators, and in the tyrosinase (TYR) gene (rs621313; P = 3.5×10(-6)), involved in melanin biosynthesis. For a range of published, late AMD risk loci, estimated effect sizes were significantly lower for early than late AMD. This study confirms the involvement of multiple established AMD risk variants in early AMD, but suggests weaker genetic effects on the risk of early AMD relative to late AMD. Several biological processes were suggested to be potentially specific for early AMD, including pathways regulating RPE cell melanin content and signalling pathways potentially involved in retinal regeneration, generating hypotheses for further investigation.

<b>Objective</b> To estimate whether migraine in mid-life is associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease, other causes, and all causes. <b>Design</b> Population based cohort study. <b>Setting</b> Reykjavik, Iceland. <b>Participants</b> 18 725 men and women, born 1907-35 and living in Reykjavik and adjacent communities. <b>Main outcome measures</b> Mortality from cardiovascular disease, non-cardiovascular disease, and all causes. Questionnaires and clinical measures were obtained in mid-life (mean age 53, range 33-81) in the Reykjavik Study (1967-91). Headache was classified as migraine without aura, migraine with aura, or non-migraine headache. Median follow-up was 25.9 years (0.1-40.2 years), with 470 990 person years and 10 358 deaths: 4323 from cardiovascular disease and 6035 from other causes. We used Cox regression to estimate risk of death in those with migraine compared with others, after adjusting for baseline risk factors. <b>Results</b> People with migraine with aura were at increased risk of all cause mortality (adjusted (for sex and multivariables) hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.30) and mortality from cardiovascular disease (1.27, 1.13 to 1.43) compared with people with no headache, while those with migraine without aura and non-migraine headache were not. Further examination of mortality from cardiovascular disease shows that people with migraine with aura were at increased risk of mortality from coronary heart disease (1.28, 1.11 to 1.49) and stroke (1.40, 1.10 to 1.78). Women with migraine with aura were also at increased risk of mortality from non-cardiovascular disease (1.19, 1.06 to 1.35). <b>Conclusions</b> Migraine with aura is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and all cause mortality in men and women. The risk of mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke mortality is modestly increased in people with migraine, particularly those with aura.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified multiple loci associated with cross-sectional eGFR, but a systematic genetic analysis of kidney function decline over time is missing. Here we conducted a GWAS meta-analysis among 63,558 participants of European descent, initially from 16 cohorts with serial kidney function measurements within the CKDGen Consortium, followed by independent replication among additional participants from 13 cohorts. In stage 1 GWAS meta-analysis, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at <i>MEOX2</i>, <i>GALNT11</i>, <i>IL1RAP</i>, <i>NPPA, HPCAL1</i>, and <i>CDH23</i> showed the strongest associations for at least one trait, in addition to the known <i>UMOD</i> locus, which showed genome-wide significance with an annual change in eGFR. In stage 2 meta-analysis, the significant association at <i>UMOD</i> was replicated. Associations at <i>GALNT11</i> with Rapid Decline (annual eGFR decline of 3ml/min per 1.73m² or more), and <i>CDH23</i> with eGFR change among those with CKD showed significant suggestive evidence of replication. Combined stage 1 and 2 meta-analyses showed significance for <i>UMOD</i>, <i>GALNT11</i>, and <i>CDH23</i>. Morpholino knockdowns of <i>galnt11</i> and <i>cdh23</i> in zebrafish embryos each had signs of severe edema 72h after gentamicin treatment compared with controls, but no gross morphological renal abnormalities before gentamicin administration. Thus, our results suggest a role in the deterioration of kidney function for the loci <i>GALNT11</i> and <i>CDH23</i>, and show that the <i>UMOD</i> locus is significantly associated with kidney function decline.

Aortic stiffness is associated with cognitive decline. Here, we examined the association between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and cognitive function and investigated whether cerebrovascular remodeling and parenchymal small vessel disease damage mediate the relation. Analyses were based on 1820 (60% women) participants in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. Multivariable linear regression models adjusted for vascular and demographic confounders showed that higher carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was related to lower memory score (standardized β: -0.071±0.023; P=0.002). Cerebrovascular resistance and white matter hyperintensities were each associated with carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and memory (P<0.05). Together, cerebrovascular resistance and white matter hyperintensities (total indirect effect: -0.029; 95% CI, -0.043 to -0.017) attenuated the direct relation between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and memory (direct effect: -0.042; 95% CI, -0.087 to 0.003; P=0.07) and explained ≈41% of the observed effect. Our results suggest that in older adults, associations between aortic stiffness and memory are mediated by pathways that include cerebral microvascular remodeling and microvascular parenchymal damage.

Aortic stiffening, assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, is associated with CKD. Transmission of excessive flow pulsatility into the low-impedance renal microvasculature may mediate this association. However, direct analyses of macrovascular-microvascular relations in the kidney are limited. Using arterial tonometry, iohexol clearance, and magnetic resonance imaging, we related arterial stiffness, GFR, urinary albumin excretion, and potential mediators, including renal artery pulsatility index, renal vascular resistance, and arterial volume in the cortex, in 367 older adults (ages 72-92 years) participating in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. In a model adjusted for age, sex, heart rate, and body size, aortic stiffness was related to GFR (Slope of regression B=-2.28±0.85 ml/min per SD, P=0.008) but not urine albumin (P=0.09). After accounting for pulsatility index, the relation between aortic stiffness and GFR was no longer significant (P=0.10). Mediation analysis showed that 34% of the relation between aortic stiffness and GFR was mediated by pulsatility index (95% confidence interval of indirect effect, -1.35 to -0.29). An additional 20% or 36% of the relation was mediated by lower arterial volume in the cortex or higher renal vascular resistance, respectively, when offered as mediators downstream from higher pulsatility index (95% confidence interval of indirect effect including arterial volume in the cortex, -2.22 to -0.40; 95% confidence interval of indirect effect including renal vascular resistance, -2.51 to -0.76). These analyses provide the first evidence that aortic stiffness may contribute to lower GFR by transferring excessive flow pulsatility into the susceptible renal microvasculature, leading to dynamic constriction or vessel loss.

AimsAtrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with cognitive impairment. Additionally, brain volume may be reduced in individuals with AF. Potential causes may include cerebral micro-embolism or reduced stroke volume due to the beat-to-beat variation in AF. The aims of this study were to measure cerebral blood flow and estimate whole brain perfusion in elderly individuals with and without AF.

HapMap imputed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed >50 loci at which common variants with minor allele frequency >5% are associated with kidney function. GWAS using more complete reference sets for imputation, such as those from The 1000 Genomes project, promise to identify novel loci that have been missed by previous efforts. To investigate the value of such a more complete variant catalog, we conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of kidney function based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in 110,517 European ancestry participants using 1000 Genomes imputed data. We identified 10 novel loci with p-value < 5 × 10-8 previously missed by HapMap-based GWAS. Six of these loci (HOXD8, ARL15, PIK3R1, EYA4, ASTN2, and EPB41L3) are tagged by common SNPs unique to the 1000 Genomes reference panel. Using pathway analysis, we identified 39 significant (FDR < 0.05) genes and 127 significantly (FDR < 0.05) enriched gene sets, which were missed by our previous analyses. Among those, the 10 identified novel genes are part of pathways of kidney development, carbohydrate metabolism, cardiac septum development and glucose metabolism. These results highlight the utility of re-imputing from denser reference panels, until whole-genome sequencing becomes feasible in large samples.

To evaluate the prevalence of significant aortic valve stenosis (AS) in a randomly selected study population of elderly individuals representing the general population of Iceland. Furthermore, to predict the number of individuals likely to have severe AS in the future.Echocardiography and computed tomography (CT) data from individuals who participated in the AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Echocardiography data from 685 individuals (58% females) aged 67-95 years were available. In both sexes combined, the prevalence for severe AS, defined as an aortic valve area index of <0.6 cm2/m2, in the age groups<70, 70-79 and ≥80 years was 0.92%, 2.4% and 7.3%, respectively. A ROC analysis on the relation between the echocardiography data and the aortic valve calcium score on CT defined a score≥500 to be indicative of severe AS. Subsequently, in a CT study cohort of 5256 individuals the prevalence of severe AS in the same age groups was 0.80%, 4.0% and 9.5%, respectively. Overall, the prevalence of severe AS by echocardiography and CT in individuals≥70 years was 4.3% and 5.9%, respectively. A prediction on the number of elderly≥70 years for the coming decades demonstrated that patients with severe AS will have increased 2.4 fold by the year 2040 and will more than triple by the year 2060.This study, in a cohort of elderly individuals representative of the general population in a Nordic country, predicts that AS will be a large health problem in the coming decades.

Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CFPWV) is a heritable measure of aortic stiffness that is strongly associated with increased risk for major cardiovascular disease events.We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 9 community-based European ancestry cohorts consisting of 20 634 participants. Results were replicated in 2 additional European ancestry cohorts involving 5306 participants. Based on a preliminary analysis of 6 cohorts, we identified a locus on chromosome 14 in the 3'-BCL11B gene desert that is associated with CFPWV (rs7152623, minor allele frequency=0.42, β=-0.075±0.012 SD/allele, P=2.8×10(-10); replication β=-0.086±0.020 SD/allele, P=1.4×10(-6)). Combined results for rs7152623 from 11 cohorts gave β=-0.076±0.010 SD/allele, P=3.1×10(-15). The association persisted when adjusted for mean arterial pressure (β=-0.060±0.009 SD/allele, P=1.0×10(-11)). Results were consistent in younger (<55 years, 6 cohorts, n=13 914, β=-0.081±0.014 SD/allele, P=2.3×10(-9)) and older (9 cohorts, n=12 026, β=-0.061±0.014 SD/allele, P=9.4×10(-6)) participants. In separate meta-analyses, the locus was associated with increased risk for coronary artery disease (hazard ratio=1.05; confidence interval=1.02-1.08; P=0.0013) and heart failure (hazard ratio=1.10, CI=1.03-1.16, P=0.004).Common genetic variation in a locus in the BCL11B gene desert that is thought to harbor 1 or more gene enhancers is associated with higher CFPWV and increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Elucidation of the role this novel locus plays in aortic stiffness may facilitate development of therapeutic interventions that limit aortic stiffening and related cardiovascular disease events.

Imaging studies have reported conflicting findings on how brain structure differs with age and sex. This may be explained by discrepancies and limitations in study population and study design. We report a study on brain tissue volumes in one of the largest cohorts of individuals studied to date of subjects with high mean age (mean ± standard deviation (SD) 76 ± 6 years). These analyses are based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans acquired at baseline on 4303 non-demented elderly, and 367 who had a second MRI, on average 2.5 ± 0.2 years later. Tissue segmentation was performed with an automatic image analysis pipeline. Total brain parenchymal (TBP) volume decreased with increasing age while there was an increase in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) in both sexes. A reduction in both normal white matter (NWM)- and gray matter (GM) volume contributed to the brain shrinkage. After adjusting for intra-cranial volume, women had larger brain volumes compared to men (3.32%, p < 0.001) for TBP volume in the cross-sectional analysis. The longitudinal analysis showed a significant age-sex interaction in TBP volume with a greater rate of annual change in men (-0.70%, 95%CI: -0.78% to -0.63%) than women (-0.55%, 95%CI: -0.61% to -0.49%). The annual change in the cross-sectional data was approximately 40% less than the annual change in the longitudinal data and did not show significant age-sex interaction. The findings indicate that the cross-sectional data underestimate the rate of change in tissue volumes with age as the longitudinal data show greater rate of change in tissue volumes with age for all tissues.

Background Activation of blood coagulation and fibrinolysis may be associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess associations of circulating tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) antigen, D-dimer and von Willebrand factor (VWF) with coronary heart disease risk. Design Prospective case-control study, systematic review and meta-analyses. Methods Measurements were made in 1925 people who had a first-ever nonfatal myocardial infarction or died of coronary heart disease during follow-up (median 19.4 years) and in 3616 controls nested within the prospective population-based Reykjavik Study. Results Age and sex-adjusted odds ratios for coronary heart disease per 1 standard deviation higher baseline level were 1.25 (1.18, 1.33) for t-PA antigen, 1.01 (0.95, 1.07) for D-dimer and 1.11 (1.05, 1.18) for VWF. After additional adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, corresponding odds ratios were 1.07 (0.99, 1.14) for t-PA antigen, 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) for D-dimer and 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) for VWF. When combined with the results from previous prospective studies in a random-effects meta-analysis, overall adjusted odds ratios were 1.13 (1.06, 1.21) for t-PA antigen (13 studies, 5494 cases), 1.23 (1.16, 1.32) with D-dimer (18 studies, 6799 cases) and 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) with VWF (15 studies, 6556 cases). Conclusions Concentrations of t-PA antigen, D-dimer and VWF may be more modestly associated with first-ever CHD events than previously reported. More detailed analysis is required to clarify whether these markers are causal risk factors or simply correlates of coronary heart disease.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n = 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n = 15 514) and BMD (n = 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n = 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n = 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 × 10(-14)). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 × 10(-6) also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including three SNPs with P < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, this GWA study reveals the effect of several genes common to central DXA-derived BMD and heel ultrasound/DXA measures and points to a new genetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology.

We hypothesized that in participants with a history of hypertension, lower late-life blood pressure (BP) will be associated with more brain pathology.Participants are 4,057 older men and women without dementia with midlife (mean age 50 ± 6 years) and late-life (mean age 76 ± 5 years) vascular screening, cognitive function, and brain structures on MRI ascertained as part of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study.The association of late-life BP to brain measures depended on midlife hypertension history. Higher late-life systolic and diastolic BP (DBP) was associated with an increased risk of white matter lesions and cerebral microbleeds, and this was most pronounced in participants without a history of midlife hypertension. In contrast, in participants with a history of midlife hypertension, lower late-life DBP was associated with smaller total brain and gray matter volumes. This finding was reflected back in cognitive performance; in participants with midlife hypertension, lower DBP was associated with lower memory scores.In this large population-based cohort, late-life BP differentially affects brain pathology and cognitive performance, depending on the history of midlife hypertension. Our study suggests history of hypertension is critical to understand how late-life BP affects brain structure and function.

This study examined associations of regional fat depots with all-cause mortality over 11 years of follow-up.Data were from 2,187 men and 2,900 women, aged 66-96 years in the AGES-Reykjavik Study. Abdominal visceral fat and subcutaneous fat and thigh intermuscular fat and subcutaneous fat were measured by CT.In men, every standard deviation (SD) increment in thigh intermuscular fat was related to a significantly greater mortality risk (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26) after adjustment for age, education, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, BMI, type 2 diabetes, and coronary heart disease. In women, visceral fat (per SD increment) significantly increased mortality risk (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03-1.25) while abdominal subcutaneous fat (per SD increment) was associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.80). Significant interactions with BMI were found in women, indicating that visceral fat was a strong predictor of mortality in obese women while abdominal and thigh subcutaneous fat were associated with a lower mortality risk in normal-weight and overweight women.Fat distribution is associated with mortality over 11 years of follow-up independent of overall fatness. The divergent mortality risks for visceral fat and subcutaneous fat in women suggest complex relationships between overall fatness and mortality.

Melatonin has anticarcinogenic properties in experimental models. We undertook a case–cohort study of 928 Icelandic men without prostate cancer (PCa) nested within the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik cohort to investigate the prospective association between first morning-void urinary 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) levels and the subsequent risk for PCa, under the hypothesis that men with lower aMT6s levels have an increased risk for advanced PCa. We used weighted Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between first morning-void aMT6s levels and PCa risk, adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 111 men were diagnosed with incident PCa, including 24 with advanced disease. Men who reported sleep problems at baseline had lower morning aMT6s levels compared with those who reported no sleep problems. Men with morning aMT6s levels below the median had a fourfold statistically significant increased risk for advanced disease compared with men with levels above the median (hazard ratio: 4.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.26–12.98). These results require replication in larger prospective studies with longer follow-up. In this report, we evaluated the prospective association between urinary aMT6s levels and risk of PCa in an Icelandic population. We found that lower levels of aMT6s were associated with an increased risk for advanced PCa.

Non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies (NICM) can cause heart failure and death. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) detects myocardial scar/fibrosis associated with myocardial infarction (MI) and NICM with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and prognosis of ischaemic and non-ischaemic myocardial fibrosis in a community-based sample of older adults.The ICELAND-MI cohort, a substudy of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study, provided a well-characterized population of 900 subjects after excluding subjects with pre-existing heart failure. Late gadolinium enhancement CMR divided subjects into four groups: MI (n = 211), major (n = 54) non-ischaemic fibrosis (well-established, classic patterns, associated with myocarditis, infiltrative cardiomyopathies, or pathological hypertrophy), minor (n = 238) non-ischaemic fibrosis (remaining localized patterns not meeting major criteria), and a no LGE (n = 397) reference group. The primary outcome was time to death or first heart failure hospitalization. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 192 composite events occurred (115 deaths and 77 hospitalizations for incident heart failure). After inverse probability weighting, major non-ischaemic fibrosis [hazard ratio (HR) 3.2, P < 0.001] remained independently associated with the primary endpoint, while MI (HR 1.4, P = 0.10) and minor non-ischaemic LGE (HR 1.2, P = 0.39) did not. Major non-ischaemic fibrosis was associated with a poorer outcome than MI (HR = 2.3, P = 0.001) in the adjusted analysis.Major non-ischaemic patterns of myocardial fibrosis portended worse prognosis than no fibrosis/scar in an older community-based cohort. Traditional risk factors largely accounted for the effect of MI and minor non-ischaemic LGE.

The increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes poses a major challenge to societies worldwide. Blood-based factors like serum proteins are in contact with every organ in the body to mediate global homeostasis and may thus directly regulate complex processes such as aging and the development of common chronic diseases. We applied a data-driven proteomics approach, measuring serum levels of 4,137 proteins in 5,438 elderly Icelanders, and identified 536 proteins associated with prevalent and/or incident type 2 diabetes. We validated a subset of the observed associations in an independent case-control study of type 2 diabetes. These protein associations provide novel biological insights into the molecular mechanisms that are dysregulated prior to and following the onset of type 2 diabetes and can be detected in serum. A bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that serum changes of at least 23 proteins are downstream of the disease or its genetic liability, while 15 proteins were supported as having a causal role in type 2 diabetes.

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

There is evidence that atherosclerosis may contribute to the initiation or progression of osteoarthritis. To test this hypothesis, the presence and severity of hand osteoarthritis (HOA) was compared with markers of atherosclerotic vascular disease in an elderly population.The AGES Reykjavik Study is a population-based multidisciplinary study of ageing in the elderly population of Reykjavik. In a study of 2264 men (mean age 76 years; SD 6) and 3078 women (mean age 76 years; SD 6) the severity of HOA, scored from photographs, was compared with measures of atherosclerosis. These included carotid intimal thickness and plaque severity, coronary calcifications (CAC) and aortic calcifications and reported cardiac and cerebrovascular events.After adjustment for confounders, both carotid plaque severity and CAC were significantly associated with HOA in women, with an odds ratio of 1.42 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.76, p = 0.002) for having CAC and 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.49, p = 0.016) for having moderate or severe carotid plaques. Both carotid plaques and CAC also exhibited significant linear trends in relation to HOA severity in women in the whole AGES Reykjavik cohort (p<0.001 and p = 0.027, respectively, for trend). No significant associations were seen in men. Despite this evidence of increased atherosclerosis, women with HOA did not report proportionally more previous cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events.The results indicate a linear association between the severity of HOA and atherosclerosis in older women. The pathological process of HOA seems to have some components in common with atherosclerosis. Prospective studies may help elucidate the possible mechanisms of this relationship.

Pulse pressure increases with advancing age particularly in women. As a result, women have a higher pulse pressure than men from midlife onward. Higher pulse pressure in older women as compared to men is often attributed to increased aortic wall stiffness and premature wave reflection. To evaluate this hypothesis, we measured central aortic input impedance, pulse wave velocity, and wave reflection in 408 older men and women (age range, 69 to 94 yr, mean 75 yr) participating in the community-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (AGES-Reykjavik). Women as compared to men had higher pulse pressure (75.8+/-18.7 versus 69.5+/-16.8 mm Hg, P<0.001) and smaller aortic diameters (2.74+/-0.24 versus 2.97+/-0.28 cm, P<0.001). Augmentation index (AI) was higher (11.0+/-15.9 versus 7.9+/-12.9%, P=0.032) in women whereas proximal aortic elastance-wall thickness product (Eh) did not differ (P=0.61). In a stepwise model for pulse pressure that included age and sex and offered aortic diameter, Eh, mean pressure, AI, pulse wave velocity, height, weight, and body surface area as additional covariates, higher pulse pressure was associated with increased wall stiffness, smaller aortic diameter, higher mean pressure, and increased AI (Model R(2)=0.59, P<0.001). The sex difference in pulse pressure (6.6+/-1.7 mm Hg, P<0.001) persisted after Eh entered the model (6.9+/-1.5 mm Hg, P<0.001) but not after aortic diameter entered the model (-0.4+/-1.4 mm Hg, P=0.75). Thus, reduced aortic diameter and impaired matching between diameter and flow accounts for the sex difference in pulse pressure in an unselected community-based cohort of older people.

Previous studies examining genetic associations with MRI-defined brain infarct have yielded inconsistent findings. We investigated genetic variation underlying covert MRI infarct in persons without histories of transient ischemic attack or stroke. We performed meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of white participants in 6 studies comprising the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium.Using 2.2 million genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms, each study performed cross-sectional genome-wide association analysis of MRI infarct using age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models. Study-specific findings were combined in an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis, including 9401 participants with mean age 69.7 (19.4% of whom had >or=1 MRI infarct).The most significant association was found with rs2208454 (minor allele frequency, 20%), located in intron 3 of MACRO domain containing 2 gene and in the downstream region of fibronectin leucine-rich transmembrane protein 3 gene. Each copy of the minor allele was associated with lower risk of MRI infarcts (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.84; P=4.64x10(-7)). Highly suggestive associations (P<1.0x10(-5)) were also found for 22 other single nucleotide polymorphisms in linkage disequilibrium (r(2)>0.64) with rs2208454. The association with rs2208454 did not replicate in independent samples of 1822 white and 644 black participants, although 4 single nucleotide polymorphisms within 200 kb from rs2208454 were associated with MRI infarcts in the black population sample.This first community-based, genome-wide association study on covert MRI infarcts uncovered novel associations. Although replication of the association with top single nucleotide polymorphisms failed, possibly because of insufficient power, results in the black population sample are encouraging, and further efforts at replication are needed.

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s. We examined how much of the decrease between 1981 and 2006 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in cardiovascular risk factors.The previously validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was applied to the Icelandic population. The data sources were official statistics, national quality registers, published trials and meta-analyses, clinical audits and a series of national population surveys.Between 1981 and 2006, CHD mortality rates in Iceland decreased by 80% in men and women aged 25 to 74 years, which resulted in 295 fewer deaths in 2006 than if the 1981 rates had persisted. Incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) decreased by 66% and resulted in some 500 fewer incident MI cases per year, which is a major determinant of possible deaths from MI. Based on the IMPACT model approximately 73% (lower and upper bound estimates: 54%-93%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to risk factor reductions: cholesterol 32%; smoking 22%; systolic blood pressure 22%, and physical inactivity 5% with adverse trends for diabetes (-5%), and obesity (-4%). Approximately 25% (lower and upper bound estimates: 8%-40%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to treatments in individuals: secondary prevention 8%; heart failure treatments 6%; acute coronary syndrome treatments 5%; revascularisation 3%; hypertension treatments 2%, and statins 0.5%.Almost three quarters of the large CHD mortality decrease in Iceland between 1981 and 2006 was attributable to reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors in the population. These findings emphasize the value of a comprehensive prevention strategy that promotes tobacco control and a healthier diet to reduce incidence of MI and highlights the potential importance of effective, evidence based medical treatments.

Accurate assessment of mechanical properties of the proximal aorta is a requisite first step for elucidating the pathophysiology of isolated systolic hypertension. During systole, substantial proximal aortic axial displacement produces longitudinal strain, which we hypothesize causes variable underestimation of ascending aortic circumferential strain compared to values in the longitudinally constrained descending aorta.To assess effects of longitudinal strain, we performed magnetic resonance imaging in 375 participants (72 to 94 years old, 204 women) in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility‐Reykjavik Study and measured aortic circumferential and longitudinal strain. Circumferential ascending aortic area strain uncorrected for longitudinal strain was comparable in women and men (mean [95% CI], 8.3 [7.8, 8.9] versus 7.9 [7.4, 8.5]%, respectively, P=0.3). However, longitudinal strain was greater in women (8.5±2.5 versus 7.0±2.5%, P<0.001), resulting in greater longitudinally corrected circumferential ascending aortic strain (14.4 [13.6, 15.2] versus 13.0 [12.4, 13.7]%, P=0.010). Observed circumferential descending aortic strain, which did not require correction (women: 14.0 [13.2, 14.8], men: 12.4 [11.6, 13.2]%, P=0.005), was larger than uncorrected (P<0.001), but comparable to longitudinally corrected (P=0.12) circumferential ascending aortic strain. Carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity did not correlate with uncorrected ascending aortic strain (R=−0.04, P=0.5), but was inversely related to longitudinally corrected ascending and observed descending aortic strain (R=−0.15, P=0.004; R=−0.36, P<0.001, respectively). Longitudinal strain was also inversely related to carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity and other risk factors for higher aortic stiffness including treated hypertension.Longitudinal strain creates substantial and variable errors in circumferential ascending aortic area strain measurements, particularly in women, and should be considered to avoid misclassification of ascending aortic stiffness.

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Carotid plaque and intima-media thickness are non-invasive arterial markers that are used as surrogate end points for cardiovascular disease. The aim was to assess the prevalence and severity of carotid plaque, and examine its determinant risk factors and their association to the common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) in a general population.We examined 6524 participants aged 25-69 years in the population-based REFINE (Risk Evaluation For INfarct Estimates)-Reykjavik study. Plaques at the bifurcation and internal carotid arteries were evaluated. Mean CCA-IMT was measured in the near and far walls of the common carotid arteries.The prevalence of minimal, moderate and severe plaque was 35.0%, 8.9% and 1.1%, respectively, and the mean CCA-IMT was 0.73 (SD 0.14) mm. Age, sex, smoking and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were the strongest risk factors associated with plaque, followed by systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, body mass index and family history of myocardial infarct. Low educational level was also strongly and independently associated with plaque. CCA-IMT shared the same risk factors except for a non-significant association with T2DM and family history of myocardial infarction (MI). Participants with T2DM had greater plaque prevalence, 2-fold higher in those <50 years and 17-30% greater in age groups 50-54 to 60-64, and more significant plaques (moderate or severe) were the difference in prevalence was 24% in age group 50-54 and ≥60% in older age groups, compared with non-T2DM.Carotid plaque and CCA-IMT have mostly common determinants. However, T2DM and family history of MI were associated with plaque but not with CCA-IMT. Greater prevalence and more severe plaques in individuals with T2DM raise the concern that with increasing prevalence of T2DM we may expect an increase in atherosclerosis and its consequences.

The <i>MUC5B</i> promoter polymorphism (rs35705950) has been associated with interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) in white participants from the general population; whether these findings are replicated and influenced by the ILA subtype is not known. We evaluated the associations between the <i>MUC5B</i> genotype and ILA in cohorts with extensive imaging characterisation. We performed ILA phenotyping and <i>MUC5B</i> promoter genotyping in 5308 and 9292 participants from the AGES-Reykjavik and COPDGene cohorts, respectively. We found that ILA was present in 7% of participants from the AGES-Reykjavik, 8% of non-Hispanic white participants from COPDGene and 7% of African-American participants from COPDGene. Although the <i>MUC5B</i> genotype was strongly associated (after correction for multiple testing) with ILA (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8–2.4, p=1×10⁻²⁶), there was evidence of significant heterogeneity between cohorts (I²=81%). When narrowed to specific radiologic subtypes, (<i>e.g.</i> subpleural ILA), the <i>MUC5B</i> genotype remained strongly associated (OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.2–3.1, p=1×10⁻³⁰) with minimal heterogeneity (I²=0%). Although there was no evidence that the <i>MUC5B</i> genotype influenced survival, there was evidence that <i>MUC5B</i> genotype improved risk prediction for possible usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) or a UIP pattern in non-Hispanic white populations. The <i>MUC5B</i> promoter polymorphism is strongly associated with ILA and specific radiologic subtypes of ILA, with varying degrees of heterogeneity in the underlying populations.

Background and Purpose— The differentiation of brain infarcts by region is important because their cause and clinical implications may differ. Information on the incidence of these lesions and association with cognition and dementia from longitudinal population studies is scarce. We investigated the incidence of infarcts in cortical, subcortical, cerebellar, and overall brain regions and how prevalent and incident infarcts associate with cognitive change and incident dementia. Methods— Participants (n=2612, 41% men, mean age 74.6±4.8) underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging for the assessment of infarcts and cognitive testing at baseline and on average 5.2 years later. Incident dementia was assessed according to the international guidelines. Results— Twenty-one percent of the study participants developed new infarcts. The risk of incident infarcts in men was higher than the risk in women (1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5–2.3). Persons with both incident and prevalent infarcts showed steeper cognitive decline and had almost double relative risk of incident dementia (1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–2.2) compared with those without infarcts. Persons with new subcortical infarcts had the highest risk of incident dementia compared with those without infarcts (2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.9–3.4). Conclusions— Men are at greater risk of developing incident brain infarcts than women. Persons with incident brain infarcts decline faster in cognition and have an increased risk of dementia compared with those free of infarcts. Incident subcortical infarcts contribute more than cortical and cerebellar infarcts to incident dementia which may indicate that infarcts of small vessel disease origin contribute more to the development of dementia than infarcts of embolic origin in larger vessels.

To validate a mathematical algorithm that calculates risk of diabetic retinopathy progression in a diabetic population with UK staging (R0-3; M1) of diabetic retinopathy. To establish the utility of the algorithm to reduce screening frequency in this cohort, while maintaining safety standards.The cohort of 9690 diabetic individuals in England, followed for 2 years. The algorithms calculated individual risk for development of preproliferative retinopathy (R2), active proliferative retinopathy (R3A) and diabetic maculopathy (M1) based on clinical data. Screening intervals were determined such that the increase in risk of developing certain stages of retinopathy between screenings was the same for all patients and identical to mean risk in fixed annual screening. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and area under the curve calculated to estimate the prediction capability.The algorithm predicts the occurrence of the given diabetic retinopathy stages with area under the curve =80% for patients with type II diabetes (CI 0.78 to 0.81). Of the cohort 64% is at less than 5% risk of progression to R2, R3A or M1 within 2 years. By applying a 2 year ceiling to the screening interval, patients with type II diabetes are screened on average every 20 months, which is a 40% reduction in frequency compared with annual screening.The algorithm reliably identifies patients at high risk of developing advanced stages of diabetic retinopathy, including preproliferative R2, active proliferative R3A and maculopathy M1. Majority of patients have less than 5% risk of progression between stages within a year and a small high-risk group is identified. Screening visit frequency and presumably costs in a diabetic retinopathy screening system can be reduced by 40% by using a 2 year ceiling. Individualised risk assessment with 2 year ceiling on screening intervals may be a pragmatic next step in diabetic retinopathy screening in UK, in that safety is maximised and cost reduced by about 40%.

Abstract BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive power of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay for cardiovascular events and mortality in a large population of older community dwellers. METHODS Blood was collected from 5764 individuals (age 66–98 years) during the period of 2002–2006 and the outcome as to all-cause death and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) followed up to 10 years. hs-cTnI (Abbott) was measured in serum to assess the association of this marker with CVD, CHD and death, and finally, to compare the results with conventional risk factors by multivariable statistical analysis. RESULTS The median (interquartile range) concentrations of hs-cTnI were 8.4 ng/L (5.6–14.2 ng/L) and 5.3 ng/L (3.8–8.1 ng/L) in men (2416) and women (3275), respectively, and the concentrations increased linearly with age. Outcomes as to all-cause death and incidence of CVD and CHD were significantly associated with increasing concentrations of hs-cTnI beginning well below the 99th percentile concentrations. The associations with outcome remained after adjustments for conventional risk factors and were similar in men and women. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that hs-cTnI reflects the status of the myocardium even in seemingly healthy individuals and that the measurements of hs-cTnI may be useful for primary prediction of heart disease; this should form the basis for future prospective clinical trials for determining whether measuring hs-cTnI can be used in the prevention of CVD/CHD.

BackgroundPelvic floor dysfunction, including urinary and anal incontinence, is a common postpartum complaint and likely to reduce quality of life.ObjectiveTo study the effects of individualized physical therapist–guided pelvic floor muscle training in the early postpartum period on urinary and anal incontinence and related bother, as well as pelvic floor muscle strength and endurance.Materials and MethodsThis was an assessor-blinded, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial evaluating effects of pelvic floor muscle training by a physical therapist on the rate of urinary and/or anal leakage (primary outcomes); related bother and muscle strength and endurance in the pelvic floor were secondary outcomes. Between 2016 and 2017, primiparous women giving birth at Landspitali University Hospital in Reykjavik, Iceland, were screened for eligibilty 6–10 weeks after childbirth. Of those identified as urinary incontinent, 95 were invited to participate, of whom 84 agreed. The intervention, starting at ∼9 weeks postpartum consisted of 12 weekly sessions with a physical therapist, after which the main outcomes were assessed (endpoint, ∼6 months postpartum). Additional follow-up was conducted at ∼12 months postpartum. The control group received no instructions after the initial assessment. The Fisher exact test was used to test differences in the proportion of women with urinary and anal incontinence between the intervention and control groups, and independent-sample t tests were used for mean differences in muscle strength and endurance. Significance levels were set as α = 0.05.ResultsA total of 41 and 43 women were randomized to the intervention and control groups, respectively. Three participants and 1 participant withdrew from these respective groups. Measurement variables and main delivery outcomes were not different at recruitment. At the endpoint, urinary incontinence was less frequent in the intervention group, with 21 participants (57%) still symptomatic, compared to 31 controls (82%) (P = .03), as was bladder-related bother with 10 participants (27%) in the intervention vs 23 (60%) in the control group (P = .005). Anal incontinence was not influenced by pelvic floor muscle training (P = .33), nor was bowel-related bother (P = .82). The mean differences between groups in measured pelvic floor muscle strength changes at endpoint was 5 hPa (95% confidence interval, 2–8; P = .003), and for pelvic floor muscle endurance changes, 50 hPa/s (95% confidence interval, 23–77; P = .001), both in favor of the intervention group. The mean between-group differences for anal sphincter strength changes was 10 hPa (95% confidence interval, 2–18; P = .01) and for anal sphincter endurance changes 95 hPa/s (95% confidence interval, 16–173; P = .02), both in favor of the intervention. At the follow-up visit 12 months postpartum, no differences were observed between the groups regarding rates of urinary and anal incontinence and related bother. Pelvic floor- and anal muscle strength and endurance favoring the intervention group were maintained.ConclusionPostpartum pelvic floor mucle training decreased the rate of urinary incontinence and related bother 6 months postpartum and increased muscle strength and endurance. Pelvic floor dysfunction, including urinary and anal incontinence, is a common postpartum complaint and likely to reduce quality of life. To study the effects of individualized physical therapist–guided pelvic floor muscle training in the early postpartum period on urinary and anal incontinence and related bother, as well as pelvic floor muscle strength and endurance. This was an assessor-blinded, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial evaluating effects of pelvic floor muscle training by a physical therapist on the rate of urinary and/or anal leakage (primary outcomes); related bother and muscle strength and endurance in the pelvic floor were secondary outcomes. Between 2016 and 2017, primiparous women giving birth at Landspitali University Hospital in Reykjavik, Iceland, were screened for eligibilty 6–10 weeks after childbirth. Of those identified as urinary incontinent, 95 were invited to participate, of whom 84 agreed. The intervention, starting at ∼9 weeks postpartum consisted of 12 weekly sessions with a physical therapist, after which the main outcomes were assessed (endpoint, ∼6 months postpartum). Additional follow-up was conducted at ∼12 months postpartum. The control group received no instructions after the initial assessment. The Fisher exact test was used to test differences in the proportion of women with urinary and anal incontinence between the intervention and control groups, and independent-sample t tests were used for mean differences in muscle strength and endurance. Significance levels were set as α = 0.05. A total of 41 and 43 women were randomized to the intervention and control groups, respectively. Three participants and 1 participant withdrew from these respective groups. Measurement variables and main delivery outcomes were not different at recruitment. At the endpoint, urinary incontinence was less frequent in the intervention group, with 21 participants (57%) still symptomatic, compared to 31 controls (82%) (P = .03), as was bladder-related bother with 10 participants (27%) in the intervention vs 23 (60%) in the control group (P = .005). Anal incontinence was not influenced by pelvic floor muscle training (P = .33), nor was bowel-related bother (P = .82). The mean differences between groups in measured pelvic floor muscle strength changes at endpoint was 5 hPa (95% confidence interval, 2–8; P = .003), and for pelvic floor muscle endurance changes, 50 hPa/s (95% confidence interval, 23–77; P = .001), both in favor of the intervention group. The mean between-group differences for anal sphincter strength changes was 10 hPa (95% confidence interval, 2–18; P = .01) and for anal sphincter endurance changes 95 hPa/s (95% confidence interval, 16–173; P = .02), both in favor of the intervention. At the follow-up visit 12 months postpartum, no differences were observed between the groups regarding rates of urinary and anal incontinence and related bother. Pelvic floor- and anal muscle strength and endurance favoring the intervention group were maintained. Postpartum pelvic floor mucle training decreased the rate of urinary incontinence and related bother 6 months postpartum and increased muscle strength and endurance.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Abstract Many different subjective tools are being used to measure excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) but the most widely used is the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS). However, it is unclear if using the ESS is adequate on its own when assessing EDS. The aim of this study was to estimate the characteristics and prevalence of EDS using the ESS and the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire (BNSQ) in general population samples. Participants aged 40 years and older answered questions about sleepiness, health, sleep‐related symptoms and quality of life. Two groups were defined as suffering from EDS: those who scored &gt;10 on the ESS (with increased risk of dozing off) and those reporting feeling sleepy during the day ≥3 times per week on the BNSQ. In total, 1,338 subjects (53% male, 74.1% response rate) participated, 13.1% reported an increased risk of dozing off, 23.2% reported feeling sleepy and 6.4% reported both. The prevalence of restless leg syndrome, nocturnal gastroesophageal reflux, difficulties initiating and maintaining sleep and nocturnal sweating was higher among subjects reporting feeling sleepy compared to non‐sleepy subjects. Also, subjects reporting feeling sleepy had poorer quality of life and reported more often feeling unrested during the day than non‐sleepy subjects. However, subjects reporting increased risk of dozing off (ESS &gt; 10) without feeling sleepy had a similar symptom profile as the non‐sleepy subjects. Therefore, reporting only risk of dozing off without feeling sleepy may not reflect problematic sleepiness and more instruments in addition to ESS are needed when evaluating daytime sleepiness.

Background: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have consistently been associated with elevated risk of multiple adverse health outcomes, yet their contribution to coping ability and psychiatric resilience in adulthood is unclear. Methods: Cross-sectional data were derived from the ongoing Stress-And-Gene-Analysis cohort, representing 30% of the Icelandic nationwide female population, 18–69 years. Participants in the current study were 26,198 women with data on 13 ACEs measured with the ACE-International Questionnaire. Self-reported coping ability was measured with the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale and psychiatric resilience was operationalized as absence of psychiatric morbidity. Generalized linear regression assuming normal or Poisson distribution were used to assess the associations of ACEs with coping ability and psychiatric resilience controlling for multiple confounders. Results: Number of ACEs was inversely associated with adult resilience in a dose-dependent manner; every 1SD unit increase in ACE scores was associated with both lower levels of coping ability ( β = −0.14; 95% CI-0.15,–0.13) and lower psychiatric resilience ( β = −0.28; 95% CI-0.29,–0.27) in adulthood. Compared to women with 0 ACEs, women with ≥5 ACEs had 36% lower prevalence of high coping ability (PR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59,0.70) and 58% lower prevalence of high psychiatric resilience (PR = 0.42; 95% CI 0.39,0.45). Specific ACEs including emotional neglect, bullying, sexual abuse and mental illness of household member were consistently associated with reduced adult resilience. We observed only slightly attenuated associations after controlling for adult socioeconomic factors and social support in adulthood. Conclusions: Cumulative ACE exposure is associated with lower adult resilience among women, independent of adult socioeconomic factors and social support, indicating that adult resilience may be largely determined in childhood. Funding: This work was supported by the European Research Council (Consolidator grant; UAV, grant number 726413), and the Icelandic Center for Research (Grant of excellence; UAV, grant number 163362-051). HBD was supported by a doctoral grant from the University of Iceland Research Fund.