Kirsten Bibbins‐Domingo

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States. In 2016, an estimated 134,000 persons will be diagnosed with the disease, and about 49,000 will die from it. Colorectal cancer is most frequently diagnosed among adults aged 65 to 74 years; the median age at death from colorectal cancer is 68 years.To update the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for colorectal cancer.The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of screening with colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, computed tomography colonography, the guaiac-based fecal occult blood test, the fecal immunochemical test, the multitargeted stool DNA test, and the methylated SEPT9 DNA test in reducing the incidence of and mortality from colorectal cancer or all-cause mortality; the harms of these screening tests; and the test performance characteristics of these tests for detecting adenomatous polyps, advanced adenomas based on size, or both, as well as colorectal cancer. The USPSTF also commissioned a comparative modeling study to provide information on optimal starting and stopping ages and screening intervals across the different available screening methods.The USPSTF concludes with high certainty that screening for colorectal cancer in average-risk, asymptomatic adults aged 50 to 75 years is of substantial net benefit. Multiple screening strategies are available to choose from, with different levels of evidence to support their effectiveness, as well as unique advantages and limitations, although there are no empirical data to demonstrate that any of the reviewed strategies provide a greater net benefit. Screening for colorectal cancer is a substantially underused preventive health strategy in the United States.The USPSTF recommends screening for colorectal cancer starting at age 50 years and continuing until age 75 years (A recommendation). The decision to screen for colorectal cancer in adults aged 76 to 85 years should be an individual one, taking into account the patient's overall health and prior screening history (C recommendation).

Update of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for depression in adults.The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for depression in adult populations, including older adults and pregnant and postpartum women; the accuracy of depression screening instruments; and the benefits and harms of depression treatment in these populations.This recommendation applies to adults 18 years and older.The USPSTF recommends screening for depression in the general adult population, including pregnant and postpartum women. Screening should be implemented with adequate systems in place to ensure accurate diagnosis, effective treatment, and appropriate follow-up. (B recommendation).

The U.S. diet is high in salt, with the majority coming from processed foods. Reducing dietary salt is a potentially important target for the improvement of public health.

<h3>Importance</h3> In the United States, the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is approximately 11%, and the lifetime risk of dying of prostate cancer is 2.5%. The median age of death from prostate cancer is 80 years. Many men with prostate cancer never experience symptoms and, without screening, would never know they have the disease. African American men and men with a family history of prostate cancer have an increased risk of prostate cancer compared with other men. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on prostate-specific antigen (PSA)–based screening for prostate cancer. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer and subsequent treatment of screen-detected prostate cancer. The USPSTF also commissioned a review of existing decision analysis models and the overdiagnosis rate of PSA-based screening. The reviews also examined the benefits and harms of PSA-based screening in patient subpopulations at higher risk of prostate cancer, including older men, African American men, and men with a family history of prostate cancer. <h3>Findings</h3> Adequate evidence from randomized clinical trials shows that PSA-based screening programs in men aged 55 to 69 years may prevent approximately 1.3 deaths from prostate cancer over approximately 13 years per 1000 men screened. Screening programs may also prevent approximately 3 cases of metastatic prostate cancer per 1000 men screened. Potential harms of screening include frequent false-positive results and psychological harms. Harms of prostate cancer treatment include erectile dysfunction, urinary incontinence, and bowel symptoms. About 1 in 5 men who undergo radical prostatectomy develop long-term urinary incontinence, and 2 in 3 men will experience long-term erectile dysfunction. Adequate evidence shows that the harms of screening in men older than 70 years are at least moderate and greater than in younger men because of increased risk of false-positive results, diagnostic harms from biopsies, and harms from treatment. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that the net benefit of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer in men aged 55 to 69 years is small for some men. How each man weighs specific benefits and harms will determine whether the overall net benefit is small. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that the potential benefits of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer in men 70 years and older do not outweigh the expected harms. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> For men aged 55 to 69 years, the decision to undergo periodic PSA-based screening for prostate cancer should be an individual one and should include discussion of the potential benefits and harms of screening with their clinician. Screening offers a small potential benefit of reducing the chance of death from prostate cancer in some men. However, many men will experience potential harms of screening, including false-positive results that require additional testing and possible prostate biopsy; overdiagnosis and overtreatment; and treatment complications, such as incontinence and erectile dysfunction. In determining whether this service is appropriate in individual cases, patients and clinicians should consider the balance of benefits and harms on the basis of family history, race/ethnicity, comorbid medical conditions, patient values about the benefits and harms of screening and treatment-specific outcomes, and other health needs. Clinicians should not screen men who do not express a preference for screening. (C recommendation) The USPSTF recommends against PSA-based screening for prostate cancer in men 70 years and older. (D recommendation)

Description: Update of the 2009 USPSTF recommendation on aspirin use to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and the 2007 recommendation on aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: The USPSTF reviewed 5 additional studies of aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD and several additional analyses of CRC follow-up data. The USPSTF also relied on commissioned systematic reviews of all-cause mortality and total cancer incidence and mortality and a comprehensive review of harms. The USPSTF then used a microsimulation model to systematically estimate the balance of benefits and harms. Population: This recommendation applies to adults aged 40 years or older without known CVD and without increased bleeding risk. Recommendations: The USPSTF recommends initiating low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 50 to 59 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk, are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years. (B recommendation) The decision to initiate low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 60 to 69 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk should be an individual one. Persons who are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years are more likely to benefit. Persons who place a higher value on the potential benefits than the potential harms may choose to initiate low-dose aspirin. (C recommendation) The current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of initiating aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults younger than 50 years. (I statement) The current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of initiating aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 70 years or older. (I statement)

<h3>Importance</h3> Based on year 2000 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth charts, approximately 17% of children and adolescents aged 2 to 19 years in the United States have obesity, and almost 32% of children and adolescents are overweight or have obesity. Obesity in children and adolescents is associated with morbidity such as mental health and psychological issues, asthma, obstructive sleep apnea, orthopedic problems, and adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes (eg, high blood pressure, abnormal lipid levels, and insulin resistance). Children and adolescents may also experience teasing and bullying behaviors based on their weight. Obesity in childhood and adolescence may continue into adulthood and lead to adverse cardiovascular outcomes or other obesity-related morbidity, such as type 2 diabetes. <h3>Subpopulation Considerations</h3> Although the overall rate of child and adolescent obesity has stabilized over the last decade after increasing steadily for 3 decades, obesity rates continue to increase in certain populations, such as African American girls and Hispanic boys. These racial/ethnic differences in obesity prevalence are likely a result of both genetic and nongenetic factors (eg, socioeconomic status, intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and fast food, and having a television in the bedroom). <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2010 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for obesity in children 6 years and older. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on screening for obesity in children and adolescents and the benefits and harms of weight management interventions. <h3>Findings</h3> Comprehensive, intensive behavioral interventions (≥26 contact hours) in children and adolescents 6 years and older who have obesity can result in improvements in weight status for up to 12 months; there is inadequate evidence regarding the effectiveness of less intensive interventions. The harms of behavioral interventions can be bounded as small to none, and the harms of screening are minimal. Therefore, the USPSTF concluded with moderate certainty that screening for obesity in children and adolescents 6 years and older is of moderate net benefit. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends that clinicians screen for obesity in children and adolescents 6 years and older and offer or refer them to comprehensive, intensive behavioral interventions to promote improvements in weight status. (B recommendation)

The antecedents and epidemiology of heart failure in young adults are poorly understood.We prospectively assessed the incidence of heart failure over a 20-year period among 5115 blacks and whites of both sexes who were 18 to 30 years of age at baseline. Using Cox models, we examined predictors of hospitalization or death from heart failure.Over the course of 20 years, heart failure developed in 27 participants (mean [+/-SD] age at onset, 39+/-6 years), all but 1 of whom were black. The cumulative incidence of heart failure before the age of 50 years was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6 to 1.7) in black women, 0.9% (95% CI, 0.5 to 1.4) in black men, 0.08% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.5) in white women, and 0% (95% CI, 0 to 0.4) in white men (P=0.001 for the comparison of black participants and white participants). Among blacks, independent predictors at 18 to 30 years of age of heart failure occurring 15 years, on average, later included higher diastolic blood pressure (hazard ratio per 10.0 mm Hg, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.1), higher body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) (hazard ratio per 5.7 units, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0 to 1.9), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (hazard ratio per 13.3 mg per deciliter [0.34 mmol per liter], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4 to 1.0), and kidney disease (hazard ratio, 19.8; 95% CI, 4.5 to 87.2). Three quarters of those in whom heart failure subsequently developed had hypertension by the time they were 40 years of age. Depressed systolic function, as assessed on a study echocardiogram when the participants were 23 to 35 years of age, was independently associated with the development of heart failure 10 years, on average, later (hazard ratio for abnormal systolic function, 36.9; 95% CI, 6.9 to 198.3; hazard ratio for borderline systolic function, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 10.2). Myocardial infarction, drug use, and alcohol use were not associated with the risk of heart failure.Incident heart failure before 50 years of age is substantially more common among blacks than among whites. Hypertension, obesity, and systolic dysfunction that are present before a person is 35 years of age are important antecedents that may be targets for the prevention of heart failure. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00005130.)

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global burden of ACD and its risk factors and to discuss the main challenges and opportunities for prevention. Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were analyzed for ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke and ACD risk factors. Data from the WHO Global Health Observatory were used to describe prevalence of diverse cardiometabolic risk factors. World Bank Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPc) information was used to categorize countries according to income level. Cardiovascular mortality decreased globally from 1990-2010 with important differences by GDPc; during 1990 there was a positive association between IHD mortality and GDPc. Higher-income countries had higher rates compared to those of lower-income countries. High levels of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose and cholesterol have a differential contribution to mortality by income group over time; high-income countries have been able to reduce the contribution from these risk factors in the last 20 years, whereas lower/middle income countries show an increasing trend in mortality attributable to high BMI and glucose. Although age-adjusted ACD mortality rate trends decreased globally, the absolute number of ACD deaths is increasing in part due to the growth of the population and aging, as well as to important lifestyle and food-system changes that likely attenuate gains in prevention. Population and individual level preventable causes of ACD must be aggressively and efficiently targeted in countries of lower economic development in order to reduce the growing burden of disease due to ACD.

The effect of adolescent overweight on future adult coronary heart disease (CHD) is not known.We estimated the prevalence of obese 35-year-olds in 2020 on the basis of adolescent overweight in 2000 and historical trends regarding overweight adolescents who become obese adults. We then used the CHD Policy Model, a state-transition computer simulation of U.S. residents who are 35 years of age or older, to project the annual excess incidence and prevalence of CHD, the total number of excess CHD events, and excess deaths from both CHD and other causes attributable to obesity from 2020 to 2035. We also modeled the effect of treating obesity-related increases in blood pressure and dyslipidemia.Adolescent overweight is projected to increase the prevalence of obese 35-year-olds in 2020 to a range of 30 to 37% in men and 34 to 44% in women. As a consequence of this increased obesity, an increase in the incidence of CHD and in the total number of CHD events and deaths is projected to occur in young adulthood. The increase is projected to continue in both absolute and relative terms as the population reaches middle age. By 2035, it is estimated that the prevalence of CHD will increase by a range of 5 to 16%, with more than 100,000 excess cases of CHD attributable to the increased obesity. Aggressive treatment with currently available therapies to reverse modifiable obesity-related risk factors would reduce, but not eliminate, the projected increase in the number of CHD events.Although projections 25 or more years into the future are subject to innumerable uncertainties, extrapolation from current data suggests that adolescent overweight will increase rates of CHD among future young and middle-aged adults, resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality.

<h3>Importance</h3> Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States, accounting for 1 of every 3 deaths among adults. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for lipid disorders in adults. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for and treatment of dyslipidemia in adults 21 years and older; the benefits and harms of statin use in reducing CVD events and mortality in adults without a history of CVD events; whether the benefits of statin use vary by subgroup, clinical characteristics, or dosage; and the benefits of various treatment strategies in adults 40 years and older without a history of CVD events. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendations</h3> The USPSTF recommends initiating use of low- to moderate-dose statins in adults aged 40 to 75 years without a history of CVD who have 1 or more CVD risk factors (dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, or smoking) and a calculated 10-year CVD event risk of 10% or greater (B recommendation). The USPSTF recommends that clinicians selectively offer low- to moderate-dose statins to adults aged 40 to 75 years without a history of CVD who have 1 or more CVD risk factors and a calculated 10-year CVD event risk of 7.5% to 10% (C recommendation). The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of initiating statin use in adults 76 years and older (I statement).

Esteban Gonzalez Burchard and colleagues explore how making medical research more diverse would aid not only social justice but scientific quality and clinical effectiveness, too.

Race and Genetic Ancestry in Medicine U.S. health inequities won’t be eliminated by abandoning the use of race and ethnicity in research and clinical practice, since these variables capture key epi...

Background— The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results— Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by &gt;50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions— Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

<h3>Importance</h3> Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were recently approved for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and have potential for broad ASCVD prevention. Their long-term cost-effectiveness and effect on total health care spending are uncertain. <h3>Objective</h3> To estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors and their potential effect on US health care spending. <h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3> The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a simulation model of US adults aged 35 to 94 years, was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors or ezetimibe in heterozygous FH or ASCVD. The model incorporated 2015 annual PCSK9 inhibitor costs of $14 350 (based on mean wholesale acquisition costs of evolocumab and alirocumab); adopted a health-system perspective, lifetime horizon; and included probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainty. <h3>Exposures</h3> Statin therapy compared with addition of ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors. <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> Lifetime major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or stroke), incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and total effect on US health care spending over 5 years. <h3>Results</h3> Adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins in heterozygous FH was estimated to prevent 316 300 MACE at a cost of $503 000 per QALY gained compared with adding ezetimibe to statins (80% uncertainty interval [UI], $493 000-$1 737 000). In ASCVD, adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins was estimated to prevent 4.3 million MACE compared with adding ezetimibe at $414 000 per QALY (80% UI, $277 000-$1 539 000). Reducing annual drug costs to $4536 per patient or less would be needed for PCSK9 inhibitors to be cost-effective at less than $100 000 per QALY. At 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in all eligible patients was estimated to reduce cardiovascular care costs by $29 billion over 5 years, but drug costs increased by an estimated $592 billion (a 38% increase over 2015 prescription drug expenditures). In contrast, initiating statins in these high-risk populations in all statin-tolerant individuals who are not currently using statins was estimated to save $12 billion. <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> Assuming 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in patients with heterozygous FH or ASCVD did not meet generally acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds and was estimated to increase US health care costs substantially. Reducing annual drug prices from more than $14 000 to $4536 would be necessary to meet a $100 000 per QALY threshold.

<h3>Importance</h3> Neural tube defects are among the most common major congenital anomalies in the United States and may lead to a range of disabilities or death. Daily folic acid supplementation in the periconceptional period can prevent neural tube defects. However, most women do not receive the recommended daily intake of folate from diet alone. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on folic acid supplementation in women of childbearing age. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> In 2009, the USPSTF reviewed the effectiveness of folic acid supplementation in women of childbearing age for the prevention of neural tube defects in infants. The current review assessed new evidence on the benefits and harms of folic acid supplementation. <h3>Findings</h3> The USPSTF assessed the balance of the benefits and harms of folic acid supplementation in women of childbearing age and determined that the net benefit is substantial. Evidence is adequate that the harms to the mother or infant from folic acid supplementation taken at the usual doses are no greater than small. Therefore, the USPSTF reaffirms its 2009 recommendation. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends that all women who are planning or capable of pregnancy take a daily supplement containing 0.4 to 0.8 mg (400-800 µg) of folic acid. (A recommendation)

Studies suggest an association between acute kidney injury (AKI) and long-term risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD), even following apparent renal recovery. Whether the pattern of renal recovery predicts kidney risk following AKI is unknown.Retrospective cohort.Patients in the Veterans Health Administration in 2011 hospitalized (> 24 hours) with at least 2 inpatient serum creatinine measurements, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 mL/min/1.73 m², and no diagnosis of end-stage renal disease or non-dialysis-dependent CKD: 17,049 (16.3%) with and 87,715 without AKI.Pattern of recovery to creatinine level within 0.3 mg/dL of baseline after AKI: within 2 days (fast), in 3 to 10 days (intermediate), and no recovery by 10 days (slow or unknown).CKD stage 3 or higher, defined as 2 outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73m² at least 90 days apart or CKD diagnosis, dialysis therapy, or transplantation.Risk for CKD was modeled using modified Poisson regression and time to death-censored CKD was modeled using Cox proportional hazards regression, both stratified by AKI stage.Most patients' AKI episodes were stage 1 (91%) and 71% recovered within 2 days. At 1 year, 18.2% had developed CKD (AKI, 31.8%; non-AKI, 15.5%; P < 0.001). In stage 1, the adjusted relative risk ratios for CKD stage 3 or higher were 1.43 (95% CI, 1.39-1.48), 2.00 (95% CI, 1.88-2.12), and 2.65 (95% CI, 2.51-2.80) for fast, intermediate, and slow/unknown recovery. A similar pattern was observed in subgroup analyses incorporating albuminuria and sensitivity analysis of death-censored time to CKD.Variable timing of follow-up and mostly male veteran cohort may limit generalizability.Patients who develop AKI during a hospitalization are at substantial risk for the development of CKD by 1 year following hospitalization and timing of AKI recovery is a strong predictor, even for the mildest forms of AKI.

ISK STRATIFICATION FOR CARdiovascular events among the general population and among high-risk individuals is of considerable interest because of the potential for such strategies to help guide use of primary and secondary preventive therapies.][15][16][17][18] Despite the potential of a plasma biomarker such as NT-proBNP to aid clinicians in risk stratification, questions remain about the added value of NT-proBNP relative to other available prognostic measures, such as traditional risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), diastolic dysfunction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and measures of ischemia.Demonstrating the additional usefulness of NT-proBNP level to these other measure-

<h3>Importance</h3> Basal and squamous cell carcinoma are the most common types of cancer in the United States and represent the vast majority of all cases of skin cancer; however, they rarely result in death or substantial morbidity, whereas melanoma skin cancer has notably higher mortality rates. In 2016, an estimated 76 400 US men and women will develop melanoma and 10 100 will die from the disease. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for skin cancer. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of screening for skin cancer with a clinical visual skin examination in reducing skin cancer morbidity and mortality and death from any cause; its potential harms, including any harms resulting from associated diagnostic follow-up; its test characteristics when performed by a primary care clinician vs a dermatologist; and whether its use leads to earlier detection of skin cancer compared with usual care. <h3>Findings</h3> Evidence to assess the net benefit of screening for skin cancer with a clinical visual skin examination is limited. Direct evidence on the effectiveness of screening in reducing melanoma morbidity and mortality is limited to a single fair-quality ecologic study with important methodological limitations. Information on harms is similarly sparse. The potential for harm clearly exists, including a high rate of unnecessary biopsies, possibly resulting in cosmetic or, more rarely, functional adverse effects, and the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of visual skin examination by a clinician to screen for skin cancer in adults (I statement).

The incidence of thyroid cancer detection has increased by 4.5% per year over the last 10 years, faster than for any other cancer, but without a corresponding change in the mortality rate. In 2013, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the United States was 15.3 cases per 100 000 persons. Most cases of thyroid cancer have a good prognosis; the 5-year survival rate for thyroid cancer overall is 98.1%.To update the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for thyroid cancer.The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for thyroid cancer in asymptomatic adults, the diagnostic accuracy of screening (including neck palpation and ultrasound), and the benefits and harms of treatment of screen-detected thyroid cancer.The USPSTF found inadequate direct evidence on the benefits of screening but determined that the magnitude of the overall benefits of screening and treatment can be bounded as no greater than small, given the relative rarity of thyroid cancer, the apparent lack of difference in outcomes between patients who are treated vs monitored (for the most common tumor types), and observational evidence showing no change in mortality over time after introduction of a mass screening program. The USPSTF found inadequate direct evidence on the harms of screening but determined that the overall magnitude of the harms of screening and treatment can be bounded as at least moderate, given adequate evidence of harms of treatment and indirect evidence that overdiagnosis and overtreatment are likely to be substantial with population-based screening. The USPSTF therefore determined that the net benefit of screening for thyroid cancer is negative.The USPSTF recommends against screening for thyroid cancer in asymptomatic adults. (D recommendation).

Air pollution is a known asthma trigger and has been associated with short-term asthma symptoms, airway inflammation, decreased lung function, and reduced response to asthma rescue medications.To assess a causal relationship between air pollution and childhood asthma using data that address temporality by estimating air pollution exposures before the development of asthma and to establish the generalizability of the association by studying diverse racial/ethnic populations in different geographic regions.This study included Latino (n = 3,343) and African American (n = 977) participants with and without asthma from five urban regions in the mainland United States and Puerto Rico. Residential history and data from local ambient air monitoring stations were used to estimate average annual exposure to five air pollutants: ozone, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide, particulate matter not greater than 10 μm in diameter, and particulate matter not greater than 2.5 μm in diameter. Within each region, we performed logistic regression to determine the relationship between early-life exposure to air pollutants and subsequent asthma diagnosis. A random-effects model was used to combine the region-specific effects and generate summary odds ratios for each pollutant.After adjustment for confounders, a 5-ppb increase in average NO₂ during the first year of life was associated with an odds ratio of 1.17 for physician-diagnosed asthma (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.31).Early-life NO₂ exposure is associated with childhood asthma in Latinos and African Americans. These results add to a growing body of evidence that traffic-related pollutants may be causally related to childhood asthma.

We sought to examine the relationship between literacy and heart failure-related quality of life (HFQOL), and to explore whether literacy-related differences in knowledge, self-efficacy and/or self-care behavior explained the relationship. We recruited patients with symptomatic heart failure (HF) from four academic medical centers. Patients completed the short version of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (TOFHLA) and questions on HF-related knowledge, HF-related self-efficacy, and self-care behaviors. We assessed HFQOL with the Heart Failure Symptom Scale (HFSS) (range 0–100), with higher scores denoting better quality of life. We used bivariate (t-tests and chi-square) and multivariate linear regression analyses to estimate the associations between literacy and HF knowledge, self-efficacy, self-care behaviors, and HFQOL, controlling for demographic characteristics. Structural equation modeling was conducted to assess whether general HF knowledge, salt knowledge, self-care behaviors, and self-efficacy mediated the relationship between literacy and HFQOL. We enrolled 605 patients with mean age of 60.7 years; 52% were male; 38% were African-American and 16% Latino; 26% had less than a high school education; and 67% had annual incomes under $25,000. Overall, 37% had low literacy (marginal or inadequate on TOFHLA). Patients with adequate literacy had higher general HF knowledge than those with low literacy (mean 6.6 vs. 5.5, adjusted difference 0.63, p < 0.01), higher self-efficacy (5.0 vs. 4.1 ,adjusted difference 0.99, p < 0.01), and higher prevalence of key self-care behaviors (p < 0.001). Those with adequate literacy had better HFQOL scores compared to those with low literacy (63.9 vs. 55.4, adjusted difference 7.20, p < 0.01), but differences in knowledge, self-efficacy, and self-care did not mediate this difference in HFQOL. Low literacy was associated with worse HFQOL and lower HF-related knowledge, self-efficacy, and self-care behaviors, but differences in knowledge, self-efficacy and self-care did not explain the relationship between low literacy and worse HFQOL.

<h3>Description</h3> New US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in young children. <h3>Methods</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the accuracy, benefits, and potential harms of brief, formal screening instruments for ASD administered during routine primary care visits and the benefits and potential harms of early behavioral treatment for young children identified with ASD through screening. <h3>Population</h3> This recommendation applies to children aged 18 to 30 months who have not been diagnosed with ASD or developmental delay and for whom no concerns of ASD have been raised by parents, other caregivers, or health care professionals. <h3>Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for ASD in young children for whom no concerns of ASD have been raised by their parents or a clinician. (I statement)

On the basis of the 2014 guidelines for hypertension therapy in the United States, many eligible adults remain untreated. We projected the cost-effectiveness of treating hypertension in U.S. adults according to the 2014 guidelines.We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to simulate drug-treatment and monitoring costs, costs averted for the treatment of cardiovascular disease, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained by treating previously untreated adults between the ages of 35 and 74 years from 2014 through 2024. We assessed cost-effectiveness according to age, hypertension level, and the presence or absence of chronic kidney disease or diabetes.The full implementation of the new hypertension guidelines would result in approximately 56,000 fewer cardiovascular events and 13,000 fewer deaths from cardiovascular causes annually, which would result in overall cost savings. The projections showed that the treatment of patients with existing cardiovascular disease or stage 2 hypertension would save lives and costs for men between the ages of 35 and 74 years and for women between the ages of 45 and 74 years. The treatment of men or women with existing cardiovascular disease or men with stage 2 hypertension but without cardiovascular disease would remain cost-saving even if strategies to increase medication adherence doubled treatment costs. The treatment of stage 1 hypertension was cost-effective (defined as <$50,000 per QALY) for all men and for women between the ages of 45 and 74 years, whereas treating women between the ages of 35 and 44 years with stage 1 hypertension but without cardiovascular disease had intermediate or low cost-effectiveness.The implementation of the 2014 hypertension guidelines for U.S. adults between the ages of 35 and 74 years could potentially prevent about 56,000 cardiovascular events and 13,000 deaths annually, while saving costs. Controlling hypertension in all patients with cardiovascular disease or stage 2 hypertension could be effective and cost-saving. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others.).

Ideas and Opinions28 April 2020This Time Must Be Different: Disparities During the COVID-19 PandemicFREEKirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MASKirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MASUniversity of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (K.B.)Author, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/M20-2247 SectionsAboutVisual AbstractPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail After reports of racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. pandemic, a large, nationally representative survey provided empirical evidence regarding the sources of these disparities (1). The authors found that increased likelihood of exposure to the virus, increased susceptibility to severe consequences of the infection, and lack of health care access were all important contributors, and they concluded with pointed, domain-specific recommendations to mitigate these disparities. The clarity of this path forward would be alluring and reassuring were the historical nature of these observations not so alarming. These data are not based on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; rather, they describe the nation's experience of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.Unfortunately, things have not changed for the better. African Americans and Latinos are overrepresented among cases of and deaths from COVID-19, both nationally and in many of the areas hardest hit by the pandemic (2, 3). In New York City, African American and Latino residents have the highest age-adjusted rates of hospitalized and nonhospitalized COVID-19, and age-adjusted death rates for African Americans are more than twice those for white and Asian residents (4). Throughout the United States, data by race and ethnicity are incomplete and highly dependent on what information is collected at the local level—a glaring omission in data collection that was highlighted for remediation during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (1).The likely causes of the disparities are also distressingly similar. Minority communities are more likely to be exposed to the virus because they are overrepresented in the low-wage, essential workforce at the front lines, including low-wage health care workers who often move between clinics, hospitals, and nursing homes to make a living, thereby magnifying their risk (5). Poor communities may face challenges implementing social distancing because of housing density and overcrowding, and minority populations are overrepresented in congregate settings, such as homeless shelters and prisons, that increase exposure risk. Minority communities may be more susceptible to severe forms of COVID-19 because of existing disparities in underlying conditions known to be associated with COVID-19 mortality, including hypertension, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and diabetes. Although largely preventable or amenable to medical management, these chronic conditions are more common, less likely to be controlled, and more likely to occur at younger ages in these communities. Health care access is also a probable contributor to COVID-19 mortality given the limited availability of both testing and treatments. Much of the testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has occurred in the context of a health care evaluation, resulting in barriers for those without insurance. Although data are not yet available, concerns about the equitable distribution of ventilators and treatments have also been raised.We simply cannot afford to bear witness to yet another manifestation of health inequities. This time must be different because we are living in a global pandemic of massive proportion and uncertain duration, the management of which will require ongoing, effective, and equitable attention to the areas of greatest need if we are to avoid even more devastating consequences. This time must be different because the increasing diversity of the U.S. population and our essential workers reminds us of our interdependence and means that focusing on minority communities is essential both to relieve suffering in these communities and to effectively manage this crisis. This time must be different because the economic underpinning of these disparities has worsened over the past decade and threatens to deteriorate further in the face of the anticipated global depression, likely exacerbating the COVID-19 disparities we are already witnessing.It is time to learn from the lessons of past epidemics and their disproportionate effect on minority communities. We need robust data to guide these efforts, but better information must be coupled with urgent and effective action to decrease exposure, susceptibility, and limitations in health care to achieve the desired results. For our public health efforts at mitigation and containment to be most effective, resources must be invested in the communities hardest hit by COVID-19 to redress past underinvestment and the ongoing impact of the economic crisis. Our clinical and public health sectors that have been relentlessly focused on addressing the acute issues of COVID-19 over the past months must refocus to also address prevention and treatment of the underlying cardiovascular and metabolic conditions that are the major contributors to morbidity and mortality in these communities.As we plan for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, we must heed the lessons from past vaccination campaigns. During the 1970s, the gap in measles vaccination rates between minority and white children was as high as 18 percentage points. Consequently, the U.S. measles epidemic of 1989 to 1991 that resulted in more than 55 000 cases included 4- to 7-fold higher rates among minority children than white children. Today, gaps in measles vaccination rates by race and ethnicity are nonexistent thanks in part to a dual strategy of boosting universal childhood vaccination and implementing targeted measures in minority communities. These targeted approaches have included increased funding to urban health departments; development of local action plans; linkage of vaccination to other programs like the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; increased reimbursement for Medicaid providers; reduced vaccine prices for Medicaid programs; adjustment of hours in public health clinics to meet the local needs of populations; ongoing monitoring and surveillance through annual surveys; and broad engagement with community organizations with specific targeted messages to minority communities (6). Unfortunately, influenza vaccinations and most other adult vaccinations have not seen similar success. Although influenza vaccination rates improved in the 2018 to 2019 season compared with prior years, the rate overall was only 45.3% (far short of the 70% goal of Healthy People 2020), and rates were substantially lower among African American, Latino, and American Indian/Alaska Native adults (7). Achieving the desired population benefit of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine will require an implementation strategy that addresses the current gaps in overall rates of adult vaccination, as well as specific issues in minority communities. Establishing and nurturing trust and partnerships within affected communities will be critical because diminished trust in health care born from a legacy of unethical experimentation, including the Tuskegee study, has been identified as an important contributor to vaccine hesitancy among African Americans (8, 9).To borrow the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., "We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history, there is such a thing as being too late. This is no time for apathy or complacency. This is a time for vigorous and positive action" (10). Can we eschew our collective amnesia, acknowledge the persistence and pervasive nature of our health and health care disparities, and draw on our experience to overcome? Or will the failure of our collective will define us as a generation that refused to care and refused to act?References1. Quinn SC, Kumar S, Freimuth VS, et al. Racial disparities in exposure, susceptibility, and access to health care in the US H1N1 influenza pandemic. Am J Public Health. 2011;101:285-93. [PMID: 21164098] doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.188029 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the U.S. Accessed at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html on 20 April 2020. Google Scholar3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Provisional death counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19): weekly state-specific data updates by select demographic and geographic characteristics. Accessed at www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly on 20 April 2020. Google Scholar4. City of New York. COVID-19: data. Accessed at www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page on 20 April 2020. Google Scholar5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force statistics from the current population survey. Updated 22 January 2020. Accessed at www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm on 20 April 2020. Google Scholar6. Hutchins SS, Jiles R, Bernier R. Elimination of measles and of disparities in measles childhood vaccine coverage among racial and ethnic minority populations in the United States. J Infect Dis. 2004;189 Suppl 1:S146-52. [PMID: 15106103] MedlineGoogle Scholar7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Flu vaccination coverage, United States, 2018–19 influenza season. 26 September 2019. Accessed at www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1819estimates.htm on 25 April 2020. Google Scholar8. Freimuth VS, Jamison AM, An J, et al. Determinants of trust in the flu vaccine for African Americans and whites. Soc Sci Med. 2017;193:70-79. [PMID: 29028558] doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.10.001 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar9. Quinn SC, Jamison A, Freimuth VS, et al. Exploring racial influences on flu vaccine attitudes and behavior: results of a national survey of white and African American adults. Vaccine. 2017;35:1167-1174. [PMID: 28126202] doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.12.046 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar10. King ML Jr. Beyond Vietnam. The Stanford University Martin Luther King, Jr. Research and Education Institute. Accessed at https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/king-papers/documents/beyond-vietnam on 20 April 2020. Google Scholar Comments 0 Comments Sign In to Submit A Comment Shinya Yamamoto M.D.Division of Infectious Diseases and Applied Immunology, Research Hospital, Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan4 May 2020 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Differential mortality rates in different regions We appreciate the article by Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, which adds to our knowledge about the characteristics of patients with COVID-19. This article will have a great effect on the practice of COVID-19 treatment. The author presented racial and ethnic disparities among patients in the U.S.A. and suggested correction of health inequities. However, we would like express some concerns regarding this work. The number of total deaths may reflect the severity of infection in that particular country. Mortality from COVID-19 (which differs in different regions, even within a country) is relatively lower in East Asia than that in European and American countries. As of May 3, 2020, the global mortality (cases/million) is 20.8 (1). The mortality in Italy, France, and the USA is 467, 376, and 196, respectively, whereas that in China, South Korea, and Japan is 3.22, 4.88, and 3.62, respectively. The reason underlying this significant difference is unknown and the role of racial differences is unclear. Several confounding factors (social factors such as health care access) can affect these results. Therefore, finding a modifiable factor is essential for clinically understanding the nature of COVID-19. Could this difference arise due to differences in the infecting coronavirus genomes? A previous study reported that SARS-Cov-2 can be divided into two major genotypes: L and S. The L type was predominant during the early days of the epidemic in China (2). However, the clinical implications of these findings are vague. Several reports have strongly associated older age with increased mortality (3). The population aging rate in Italy is higher than that in other countries. Paradoxically, mortality among the Japanese is lower even though Japan has the highest elderly population worldwide. Obesity is also known as a risk factor for hospitalization and mechanical ventilation. The obesity rates in Western countries are relatively higher than those in East Asia, which may also contribute to increasing mortality; this trend is similar to that of Pandemic 2009H1N1 (4). Obesity is also associated with other risk factors (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus), which are compounding (e.g., elderly people with obesity). Delayed hospital admission and antiviral treatment were reported as risk factors for severe illness during Pandemic 2009H1N1 (5). The number of COVID-19 patients exceeds the capacity for treatment in some countries, resulting in increased mortality. It is unknown whether these hypotheses are confounding reasons and further in-depth studies are needed to elucidate the underlying reasons.References [1] Department of Medical Genome Sciences, Research Institute for Frontier Medicine,Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine. Transition of new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths per population by country https://web.sapmed.ac.jp/canmol/coronavirus/death_e.html (Last accessed May 2 2020).[2] Tang X, Wu C, Li X, et al. On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2.Natl Sci Rev. 2020. [3] Wu Z, McGoogan JM. Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: Summary of a report of 72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 2020;323(13):1239. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32091533. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2648.[4] Venkata C, Sampathkumar P, Afessa B. Hospitalized patients with 2009 H1N1 influenza infection: The Mayo Clinic experience. Mayo Clin Proc 2010;85:798‐805. [5] Yu H, Feng Z, Uyeki TM, et al. Risk factors for severe illness with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in china. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52(4):457-465. https://www.jstor.org/stable/29777321. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciq144.Shinya Yamamoto, M.DDepartment of Infectious Diseases and Applied Immunology, IMSUT Hospital of The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8639, JapanTel. +81-3-5449-5338; Fax. +81-3-5449-5427Email: [email protected] Shinya Yamamoto MD, Makoto Saito MDDivision of Infectious Diseases and Applied Immunology, Research Hospital, Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan14 May 2020 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Differential mortality rates in different regions We appreciate that Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo highlighted racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S.A. and suggested correction of health inequities. We believe understanding the difference between countries, in addition to that within a country as discussed, will also lead to a potential improvement of healthcare in the current (and future) pandemic.The number of total deaths may reflect the severity of infection in that particular country. Mortality from COVID-19 (which differs in different regions, even within a country) is relatively lower in East Asia than that in European and American countries. As of May 2, 2020, the global mortality (cases/million) is 30.6 (1). The mortality in Italy, France, and the USA is 467, 376, and 196, respectively, whereas that in China, South Korea, and Japan is 3.22, 4.88, and 3.62, respectively. The reason underlying this significant difference is unknown and the role of racial differences is unclear. Several confounding factors (social factors such as health care access) can affect these results. Therefore, finding a modifiable factor is essential for clinically understanding the nature of COVID-19.Could this difference arise due to differences in the infecting coronavirus genomes? A previous study reported that SARS-Cov-2 can be divided into two major genotypes: L and S. The L type was predominant during the early days of the epidemic in China (2). However, the clinical implications of these findings are vague. Several reports have strongly associated older age with increased mortality (3). The population aging rate in Italy is higher than that in other countries. Paradoxically, mortality among the Japanese is lower even though Japan has the highest elderly population worldwide. Obesity is also known as a risk factor for hospitalization and mechanical ventilation. The obesity rates in European countries are relatively higher than those in East Asia, which may also contribute to increasing mortality; this trend is similar to that of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (4). Obesity is also associated with other risk factors (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus), which are confounding (e.g., elderly people with obesity). Delayed hospital admission and antiviral treatment were reported as risk factors for severe illness during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (5). The number of COVID-19 patients exceeds the capacity for treatment in some countries, resulting in increased mortality. It is unknown whether these hypotheses are confounding reasons and further in-depth studies are needed to elucidate the underlying reasons. References [1] Johns Hopkins University. Coronavirus Resource Center. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Accessed at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html on 2 May 2020. [2] Tang X, Wu C, Li X, et al. On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2.Natl Sci Rev. 2020. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwaa036. [3] Wu Z, McGoogan JM. Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in china: Summary of a report of 72 314 cases from the Chinese center for disease control and prevention. JAMA. 2020;323(13):1239. [PMID:32091533] doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2648. [4] Venkata C, Sampathkumar P, Afessa B. Hospitalized patients with 2009 H1N1 influenza infection: The Mayo Clinic experience. Mayo Clin Proc 2010;85:798‐805. [PMID:20664021] doi: 10.4065/mcp.2010.0166 [5] Yu H, Feng Z, Uyeki TM, et al. Risk factors for severe illness with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in china. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52(4):457-465. [PMID:21220768] doi: 10.1093/cid/ciq144. Gwenetta Curry, (1,2) Joht Singh Chandan, (3) Neeraj Balmukund Bhala. (3)1. Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, UK 2. Department of Gender and Race Studies, University of Alabama, AL, USA, 3. Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, UK B15 2TT18 May 2020 Transatlantic reflections on ethnic/racial disparities: wider lens and policy action are key globally Dr Bibbins-Domingo's article on COVID-19 highlighted the complicated causes that underline the marked ethnic/racial disparities in parts and populations of the USA (1) that are a source for concern globally. Whilst the primary sources for the US data suggest slightly moderated increased risks for populations compared to the initial newspaper-cited reports, we wanted to highlight corresponding United Kingdom (UK) data (2) for the Annals readership.At a national level, provisional analysis from the UK Office of National Statistics has shown that the risk of death involving COVID-19 has marked ethnic/racial disparities: when taking age into account, Black males were 4.2 times more likely to die from covid-19 than White males and Black women were 4.3 times more likely to die than White women. (3) These increased risks does not apply to Black ethnicity alone in the UK: (3) people of Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian, and Mixed ethnicities also had statistically significant raised risk of death involving COVID-19 compared with those of White ethnicity. (3) These UK results show that the difference between ethnic groups in COVID-19 mortality is partly a result of socioeconomic disadvantage and other circumstances, but a large remaining part of the difference remains unexplained.These risks are also being corroborated in large UK hospital datasets: the pseudonymised health data of over 17.4 million adults, which included 5683 hospital deaths attributed to COVID-19, found similar estimates of risk for Black and Asian populations after adjusting for age, deprivation and clinical risk factors. (4) Indeed, these disparities do not apply to mortality alone but also healthcare resource utilisation and disease severity. The latest national UK ITU audit reports indicate that Asian and Black populations in the UK are at substantially increased risk of ITU admission compared to their white counterparts. (5)The reasons are complex, but the link between deprivation and increased risk of death from COVID-19 are also clear. As in the US, ethnic minority communities in the UK have some of the highest levels of unemployment and are more likely to live in deprived neighbourhoods (3). In many ways, the UK and USA should be applauded for having more open and transparent big data than other places in the world where others will avoid these difficult considerations. However, more multidimensional sociological, clinical and population health research is needed to understand why COVID-19 disproportionately impacts diverse Black and Asian communities across the Atlantic, with implications for global health policy and actions. Word count – currently 400 1. Bibbins-Domingo K. This Time Must Be Different: Disparities During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Annals of Internal Medicine 28 Apr 2020 2. Bhala, Curry et al. Sharpening the global focus on ethnicity and race in the time of COVID-19. The Lancet May 8. 3. Office for National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to10april2020. 4. The OpenSAFELY Collaborative, Elizabeth Williamson, Alex J Walker, Krishnan J Bhaskaran, et al. OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients. medRxiv 2020.05.06.20092999; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999 5. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Care (ICNARC) report on COVID-19 in Critical Care. May 15, 2020. Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAuthors: Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MASAffiliations: University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (K.B.)Acknowledgment: The author thanks Ms. Amy Markowitz for helpful edits to earlier drafts of this manuscript.Disclosures: The author has disclosed no conflicts of interest. The form can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M20-2247.Corresponding Author: Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MAS, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, 550 16th Street, 2nd Floor, Box #0560, San Francisco, CA 94158; e-mail, Kirsten.Bibbins-Domingo@ucsf.edu.Author Contributions: Conception and design: K. Bibbins-Domingo.Drafting of the article: K. Bibbins-Domingo.Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: K. Bibbins-Domingo.Final approval of the article: K. Bibbins-Domingo.Administrative, technical, or logistic support: K. Bibbins-Domingo.This article was published at Annals.org on 28 April 2020. 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Background Though SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been documented in occupational settings and in-person essential work has been suspected as a risk factor for COVID-19, occupational differences in excess mortality have, to date, not been examined. Such information could point to opportunities for intervention, such as vaccine prioritization or regulations to enforce safer work environments. Methods and findings Using autoregressive integrated moving average models and California Department of Public Health data representing 356,188 decedents 18–65 years of age who died between January 1, 2016 and November 30, 2020, we estimated pandemic-related excess mortality by occupational sector and occupation, with additional stratification of the sector analysis by race/ethnicity. During these first 9 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, working-age adults experienced 11,628 more deaths than expected, corresponding to 22% relative excess and 46 excess deaths per 100,000 living individuals. Sectors with the highest relative and per-capita excess mortality were food/agriculture (39% relative excess; 75 excess deaths per 100,000), transportation/logistics (31%; 91 per 100,000), manufacturing (24%; 61 per 100,000), and facilities (23%; 83 per 100,000). Across racial and ethnic groups, Latino working-age Californians experienced the highest relative excess mortality (37%) with the highest excess mortality among Latino workers in food and agriculture (59%; 97 per 100,000). Black working-age Californians had the highest per-capita excess mortality (110 per 100,000), with relative excess mortality highest among transportation/logistics workers (36%). Asian working-age Californians had lower excess mortality overall, but notable relative excess mortality among health/emergency workers (37%), while White Californians had high per-capita excess deaths among facilities workers (70 per 100,000). Conclusions Certain occupational sectors are associated with high excess mortality during the pandemic, particularly among racial and ethnic groups also disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In-person essential work is a likely venue of transmission of coronavirus infection and must be addressed through vaccination and strict enforcement of health orders in workplace settings.

<h3>Importance</h3> Preeclampsia affects approximately 4% of pregnancies in the United States. It is the second leading cause of maternal mortality worldwide and may lead to serious maternal complications, including stroke, eclampsia, and organ failure. Adverse perinatal outcomes for the fetus and newborn include intrauterine growth restriction, low birth weight, and stillbirth. Many of the complications associated with preeclampsia lead to early induction of labor or cesarean delivery and subsequent preterm birth. <h3>Subpopulation Considerations</h3> Preeclampsia is more prevalent among African American women than among white women. Differences in prevalence may be, in part, due to African American women being disproportionally affected by risk factors for preeclampsia. African American women also have case fatality rates related to preeclampsia 3 times higher than rates among white women. Inequalities in access to adequate prenatal care may contribute to poor outcomes associated with preeclampsia in African American women. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 1996 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for preeclampsia. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the accuracy of screening and diagnostic tests for preeclampsia, the potential benefits and harms of screening for preeclampsia, the effectiveness of risk prediction tools, and the benefits and harms of treatment of screen-detected preeclampsia. <h3>Findings</h3> Given the evidence that treatment can reduce maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality, and the well-established accuracy of blood pressure measurements, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that screening for preeclampsia results in a substantial benefit for the mother and infant. In addition, there is adequate evidence to bound the harms of screening for and treatment of preeclampsia as no greater than small. Therefore, the USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that there is a substantial net benefit of screening for preeclampsia in pregnant women. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends screening for preeclampsia in pregnant women with blood pressure measurements throughout pregnancy. (B recommendation)

About 14% of US adults aged 40 to 79 years have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and it is the third leading cause of death in the United States. Persons with severe COPD are often unable to participate in normal physical activity due to deterioration of lung function.To update the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for COPD in asymptomatic adults.The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on whether screening for COPD in asymptomatic adults (those who do not recognize or report respiratory symptoms) improves health outcomes. The USPSTF reviewed the diagnostic accuracy of screening tools (including prescreening questionnaires and spirometry); whether screening for COPD improves the delivery and uptake of targeted preventive services, such as smoking cessation or relevant immunizations; and the possible harms of screening for and treatment of mild to moderate COPD.Similar to 2008, the USPSTF did not find evidence that screening for COPD in asymptomatic persons improves health-related quality of life, morbidity, or mortality. The USPSTF determined that early detection of COPD, before the development of symptoms, does not alter the course of the disease or improve patient outcomes. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that screening for COPD in asymptomatic persons has no net benefit.The USPSTF recommends against screening for COPD in asymptomatic adults. (D recommendation).

One in seven US households cannot reliably afford food. Food budgets are more frequently exhausted at the end of a month than at other points in time. We postulated that this monthly pattern influenced health outcomes, such as risk for hypoglycemia among people with diabetes. Using administrative data on inpatient admissions in California for 2000-08, we found that admissions for hypoglycemia were more common in the low-income than the high-income population (270 versus 200 admissions per 100,000). Risk for hypoglycemia admission increased 27 percent in the last week of the month compared to the first week in the low-income population, but we observed no similar temporal variation in the high-income population. These findings suggest that exhaustion of food budgets might be an important driver of health inequities. Policy solutions to improve stable access to nutrition in low-income populations and raise awareness of the health risks of food insecurity might be warranted.

<h3>Importance</h3> The association between sickle cell trait (SCT) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is uncertain. <h3>Objective</h3> To describe the relationship between SCT and CKD and albuminuria in self-identified African Americans. <h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3> Using 5 large, prospective, US population-based studies (the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study [ARIC, 1987-2013; n = 3402], Jackson Heart Study [JHS, 2000-2012; n = 2105], Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults [CARDIA, 1985-2006; n = 848], Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA, 2000-2012; n = 1620], and Women’s Health Initiative [WHI, 1993-2012; n = 8000]), we evaluated 15 975 self-identified African Americans (1248 participants with SCT [SCT carriers] and 14 727 participants without SCT [noncarriers]). <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> Primary outcomes were CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of &lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m²at baseline or follow-up), incident CKD, albuminuria (defined as a spot urine albumin:creatinine ratio of &gt;30 mg/g or albumin excretion rate &gt;30 mg/24 hours), and decline in eGFR (defined as a decrease of &gt;3 mL/min/1.73 m²per year). Effect sizes were calculated separately for each cohort and were subsequently meta-analyzed using a random-effects model. <h3>Results</h3> A total of 2233 individuals (239 of 1247 SCT carriers [19.2%] vs 1994 of 14 722 noncarriers [13.5%]) had CKD, 1298 (140 of 675 SCT carriers [20.7%] vs 1158 of 8481 noncarriers [13.7%]) experienced incident CKD, 1719 (150 of 665 SCT carriers [22.6%] vs 1569 of 8249 noncarriers [19.0%]) experienced decline in eGFR, and 1322 (154 of 485 SCT carriers [31.8%] vs 1168 of 5947 noncarriers [19.6%]) had albuminuria during the study period. Individuals with SCT had an increased risk of CKD (odds ratio [OR], 1.57 [95% CI, 1.34-1.84]; absolute risk difference [ARD], 7.6% [95% CI, 4.7%-10.8%]), incident CKD (OR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.45-2.20]; ARD, 8.5% [95% CI, 5.1%-12.3%]), and decline in eGFR (OR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.07-1.61]; ARD, 6.1% [95% CI, 1.4%-13.0%]) compared with noncarriers. Sickle cell trait was also associated with albuminuria (OR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.49-2.31]; ARD, 12.6% [95% CI, 7.7%-17.7%]). <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> Among African Americans in these cohorts, the presence of SCT was associated with an increased risk of CKD, decline in eGFR, and albuminuria, compared with noncarriers. These findings suggest that SCT may be associated with the higher risk of kidney disease in African Americans.

<h3>Importance</h3> Tuberculosis remains an important preventable disease in the United States. An effective strategy for reducing the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of active disease is the identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) to prevent progression to active disease. <h3>Objective</h3> To issue a current US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for LTBI. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on screening for LTBI in asymptomatic adults seen in primary care, including evidence dating from the inception of searched databases. <h3>Findings</h3> The USPSTF found adequate evidence that accurate screening tests for LTBI are available, treatment of LTBI provides a moderate health benefit in preventing progression to active disease, and the harms of screening and treatment are small. The USPSTF has moderate certainty that screening for LTBI in persons at increased risk for infection provides a moderate net benefit. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends screening for LTBI in populations at increased risk. (B recommendation)

Blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol are major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but effects of exposures during young adulthood on later life CVD risk have not been well quantified. The authors sought to evaluate the independent associations between young adult exposures to risk factors and later life CVD risk, accounting for later life exposures. The authors pooled data from 6 U.S. cohorts with observations spanning the life course from young adulthood to later life, and imputed risk factor trajectories for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterols, systolic and diastolic BP starting from age 18 years for every participant. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during young (age 18 to 39 years) and later adulthood (age ≥40 years) were calculated and linked to subsequent risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), or stroke. A total of 36,030 participants were included. During a median follow-up of 17 years, there were 4,570 CHD, 5,119 HF, and 2,862 stroke events. When young and later adult risk factors were considered jointly in the model, young adult LDL ≥100 mg/dl (compared with <100 mg/dl) was associated with a 64% increased risk for CHD, independent of later adult exposures. Similarly, young adult SBP ≥130 mm Hg (compared with <120 mm Hg) was associated with a 37% increased risk for HF, and young adult DBP ≥80 mm Hg (compared with <80 mm Hg) was associated with a 21% increased risk. Cumulative young adult exposures to elevated systolic BP, diastolic BP and LDL were associated with increased CVD risks in later life, independent of later adult exposures.

This Viewpoint from the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) introduces their 2017 draft recommendation statement on screening for prostate cancer, explains how it differs from their 2012 recommendation, and invites public comment.

<h3>Importance</h3> Elevations in levels of total, low-density lipoprotein, and non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; and, to a lesser extent, elevated triglyceride levels are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease in adults. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2007 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for lipid disorders in children, adolescents, and young adults. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on screening for lipid disorders in children and adolescents 20 years or younger—1 review focused on screening for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, and 1 review focused on screening for multifactorial dyslipidemia. <h3>Findings</h3> Evidence on the quantitative difference in diagnostic yield between universal and selective screening approaches, the effectiveness and harms of long-term treatment and the harms of screening, and the association between changes in intermediate outcomes and improvements in adult cardiovascular health outcomes are limited. Therefore, the USPSTF concludes that the balance of benefits and harms cannot be determined. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for lipid disorders in children and adolescents 20 years or younger. (I statement)

Based on data from the 1990s, estimated prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States is 10% for mild OSA and 3.8% to 6.5% for moderate to severe OSA; current prevalence may be higher, given the increasing prevalence of obesity. Severe OSA is associated with increased all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular events, diabetes, cognitive impairment, decreased quality of life, and motor vehicle crashes.To issue a new US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for OSA in asymptomatic adults.The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the accuracy, benefits, and potential harms of screening for OSA in asymptomatic adults seen in primary care, including those with unrecognized symptoms. The USPSTF also evaluated the evidence on the benefits and harms of treatment of OSA on intermediate and final health outcomes.The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on screening for or treatment of OSA in asymptomatic adults or adults with unrecognized symptoms. Therefore, the USPSTF was unable to determine the magnitude of the benefits or harms of screening for OSA or whether there is a net benefit or harm to screening.The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for OSA in asymptomatic adults. (I statement).

Clinical and community samples indicate that eating disorders (EDs) and disordered eating behaviors (DEBs) may co-occur among adolescents and young adults at a weight status classified as overweight or obese. To determine the prevalence of EDs and DEBs among young adults at a weight status classified as overweight or obese using a nationally representative sample and to characterize differences in prevalence by sex, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, and socioeconomic status. Cross-sectional nationally representative data collected from Wave III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). Young adults ages 18–24 years old. ED diagnosis and DEBs (self-reported binge eating or unhealthy weight control behaviors including vomiting, fasting/skipping meals, or laxative/diuretic use to lose weight). Covariates: age, sex, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, weight status, and education. Of the 14,322 young adults in the sample, 48.6% were at a weight status classified as overweight or obese. Compared to young adults at a weight status classified as underweight or normal weight, those at a weight status classified as overweight or obese reported a higher rate of DEBs (29.3 vs 15.8% in females, 15.4 vs 7.5% in males). Logistic regression analyses demonstrated that odds of engaging in DEBs were 2.32 (95% confidence interval 2.05–2.61) times higher for females compared to males; 1.66 (1.23–2.24) times higher for Asian/Pacific Islander compared to White; 1.62 (1.16–2.26) times higher for homosexual or bisexual compared to heterosexual; 1.26 (1.09–1.44) times higher for high school or less versus more than high school education; and 2.45 (2.16–2.79) times higher for obesity compared to normal weight, adjusting for all covariates. The high prevalence of DEBs particularly in young adults at a weight status classified as overweight or obese underscores the need for screening, referrals, and tailored interventions for DEBs in this population.

Sexual and gender minority (SGM) people-including members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer communities-are understudied and underrepresented in research. Current sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) questions do not sufficiently engage SGM people, and there is a critical gap in understanding how SOGI questions reduce inclusion and accurate empirical representation. We conducted a qualitative study to answer the question, "For SGM people, what are the major limitations with current SOGI questions?" Focus groups probed reactions to SOGI questions adapted from prior national surveys and clinical best practice guidelines. Questions were refined and presented in semi-structured cognitive interviews. Template analysis using a priori themes guided analysis. There were 74 participants: 55 in nine focus groups and 19 in cognitive interviews. Participants were diverse: 51.3% identified as gender minorities, 87.8% as sexual minorities, 8.1% as Hispanic/Latinx, 13.5% as Black or African-American, and 43.2% as Non-white. Two major themes emerged: (1) SOGI questions did not allow for identity fluidity and complexity, reducing inclusion and representation, and (2) SOGI question stems and answer choices were often not clear as to which SOGI dimension was being assessed. To our knowledge, this represents the largest body of qualitative data studying SGM perspectives when responding to SOGI questions. We present recommendations for future development and use of SOGI measures. Attention to these topics may improve meaningful participation of SGM people in research and implementation of such research within and for SGM communities.

Each decade, the American Heart Association (AHA) develops an Impact Goal to guide its overall strategic direction and investments in its research, quality improvement, advocacy, and public health programs. Guided by the AHA's new Mission Statement, to be a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives, the 2030 Impact Goal is anchored in an understanding that to achieve cardiovascular health for all, the AHA must include a broader vision of health and well-being and emphasize health equity. In the next decade, by 2030, the AHA will strive to equitably increase healthy life expectancy beyond current projections, with global and local collaborators, from 66 years of age to at least 68 years of age across the United States and from 64 years of age to at least 67 years of age worldwide. The AHA commits to developing additional targets for equity and well-being to accompany this overarching Impact Goal. To attain the 2030 Impact Goal, we recommend a thoughtful evaluation of interventions available to the public, patients, providers, healthcare delivery systems, communities, policy makers, and legislators. This presidential advisory summarizes the task force's main considerations in determining the 2030 Impact Goal and the metrics to monitor progress. It describes the aspiration that these goals will be achieved by working with a diverse community of volunteers, patients, scientists, healthcare professionals, and partner organizations needed to ensure success.

The aim of the study was to determine the association between food insecurity, mental health, and sleep outcomes among young adults. Young adulthood represents an important developmental period when educational and economic transitions may increase the risk for food insecurity; however, little is known about associations between food insecurity and health outcomes in this period.Cross-sectional nationally representative data of U.S. young adults aged 24-32 years from Wave IV (2008) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health were analyzed in 2018. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted with food insecurity as the independent variable and self-reported mental health (depression, anxiety, and suicidality) and sleep (trouble falling and staying asleep) outcomes as the dependent variables.Of the 14,786 young adults in the sample, 11% were food insecure. Food-insecure young adults had greater odds of mental health problems including a depression diagnosis (1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.01), anxiety or panic disorder diagnosis (1.47, 95% CI 1.16-1.87), and suicidal ideation in the past 12 months (2.76, 95% CI 2.14-3.55). Food insecurity was also associated with poorer sleep outcomes including trouble falling (adjusted odds ratio 1.78, 95% CI 1.52-2.08) and staying (adjusted odds ratio 1.67, 95% CI 1.42-1.97) asleep.Food insecurity is associated with poorer mental and sleep health in young adulthood. Health care providers should screen for food insecurity in young adults and provide referrals when appropriate. Future research should test interventions to simultaneously combat food insecurity and mental health problems in young adulthood.

Nonhuman “Authors” and Implications for the Integrity of Scientific Publication and Medical Knowledge

Phil B. Fontanarosa, MD, MBA; Annette Flanagin, RN, MA; John Z. Ayanian, MD, MPP; Robert O. Bonow, MD, MS; Neil M. Bressler, MD; Dimitri Christakis, MD, MPH; Mary L. Disis, MD; S. Andrew Josephson, MD; Melina R. Kibbe, MD; Dost Öngür, MD, PhD; Jay F. Piccirillo, MD; Rita F. Redberg, MD, MPH; Frederick P. Rivara, MD, MPH; Kanade Shinkai, MD, PhD; Clyde W. Yancy, MD, MSc

In patients with symptoms of heart failure, elevations in B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) accurately identify ventricular dysfunction. However, BNP levels are not specific for ventricular dysfunction in patients who do not have overt symptoms of heart failure, suggesting that other cardiac processes such as myocardial ischemia may also cause elevations in BNP.To determine whether BNP elevations are associated with myocardial ischemia, we measured plasma BNP levels before performing exercise treadmill testing with stress echocardiography in outpatients with stable coronary disease. Of the 355 participants, 113 (32%) had inducible ischemia. Compared with participants in the lowest BNP quartile (0 to 16.4 pg/mL), those in the highest quartile of BNP (> or =105 pg/mL) had double the risk of inducible ischemia (adjusted relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.6; P=0.008). The relation between elevated BNP levels and inducible ischemia was especially evident in the 206 participants who had a history of myocardial infarction (adjusted relative risk, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.7, P=0.002) and was absent in those without a history of myocardial infarction (adjusted relative risk, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.3 to 2.2; P=0.9). This association between BNP levels and inducible ischemia remained strong after adjustment for measures of systolic and diastolic dysfunction.Elevated levels of BNP are independently associated with inducible ischemia among outpatients with stable coronary disease, particularly among those with a history of myocardial infarction. The observed association between BNP levels and ischemia may explain why tests for BNP are not specific for ventricular dysfunction among patients with coronary disease.

Recommendations by health care providers have been found to vary by patient race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status and may contribute to health disparities. This study investigated the effect of these factors on recommendations for contraception.One of 18 videos depicting patients of varying sociodemographic characteristics was shown to each of 524 health care providers. Providers indicated whether they would recommend levonorgestrel intrauterine contraception to the patient shown in the video.Low socioeconomic status whites were less likely to have intrauterine contraception recommended than high socioeconomic status whites (odds ratio [OR], 0.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.69); whereas, socioeconomic status had no significant effect among Latinas and blacks. By race/ethnicity, low socioeconomic status Latinas and blacks were more likely to have intrauterine contraception recommended than low socioeconomic status whites (OR, 3.4; and 95% CI, 1.1-10.2 and OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-9.6, respectively), with no effect of race/ethnicity for high socioeconomic status patients.Providers may have biases about intrauterine contraception or make assumptions about its use based on patient race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status.

The demographic shift toward an older population in the United States will result in a higher burden of coronary heart disease, but the increase has not been quantified in detail. We sought to estimate the impact of the aging US population on coronary heart disease.We used the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, a Markov model of the US population between 35 and 84 years of age, and US Census projections to model the age structure of the population between 2010 and 2040.Assuming no substantive changes in risks factors or treatments, incident coronary heart disease is projected to increase by approximately 26%, from 981,000 in 2010 to 1,234,000 in 2040, and prevalent coronary heart disease by 47%, from 11.7 million to 17.3 million. Mortality will be affected strongly by the aging population; annual coronary heart disease deaths are projected to increase by 56% over the next 30 years, from 392,000 to 610,000. Coronary heart disease-related health care costs are projected to rise by 41% from $126.2 billion in 2010 to $177.5 billion in 2040 in the United States. It may be possible to offset the increase in disease burden through achievement of Healthy People 2010/2020 objectives or interventions that substantially reduce obesity, blood pressure, or cholesterol levels in the population.Without considerable changes in risk factors or treatments, the aging of the US population will result in a sizeable increase in coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs. Health care stakeholders need to plan for the future age-related health care demands of coronary heart disease.

Sugar-sweetened beverages are a major contributor to the US obesity and diabetes epidemics. Using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, we examined the potential impact on health and health spending of a nationwide penny-per-ounce excise tax on these beverages. We found that the tax would reduce consumption of these beverages by 15 percent among adults ages 25-64. Over the period 2010-20, the tax was estimated to prevent 2.4 million diabetes person-years, 95,000 coronary heart events, 8,000 strokes, and 26,000 premature deaths, while avoiding more than $17 billion in medical costs. In addition to generating approximately $13 billion in annual tax revenue, a modest tax on sugar-sweetened beverages could reduce the adverse health and cost burdens of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.

The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described.We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF.During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001).Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.

Greater levels of socioeconomic position (SEP) are generally associated with better health. However results from previous studies vary across race/ethnicity and health outcomes. Further, the majority of previous studies do not account for the effects of life course SEP on health nor the effects of racial discrimination, which could moderate the effects of SEP on health. Using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, we examined the relationship between a life course SEP measure on depressive symptoms and self-rated health. A life course SEP was constructed for each participant, using a framework that included parental education and occupation along with respondents' highest level of education and occupation. Interaction terms were created between life course SEP and racial discrimination to determine whether the association between SEP and health was moderated by experiences of racial discrimination. Analyses revealed that higher levels of life course SEP were inversely related to depressive symptoms. Greater life course SEP was positively associated with favorable self-rated health. Racial discrimination was associated with more depressive symptoms and poorer self-rated health. Analyses indicated a significant interaction between life course SEP and racial discrimination on depressive symptoms in the full sample. This suggested that for respondents with greater levels of SEP, racial discrimination was associated with reports of more depressive symptoms. Future research efforts should be made to examine whether individuals' perceptions and experiences of racial discrimination at the interpersonal and structural levels limits their ability to acquire human capital as well as their advancement in education and occupational status.

<h3>Background</h3> Barbershop-based hypertension (HTN) outreach programs for black men are becoming increasingly common, but whether they are an effective approach for improving HTN control remains uncertain. <h3>Methods</h3> To evaluate whether a continuous high blood pressure (BP) monitoring and referral program conducted by barbers motivates male patrons with elevated BP to pursue physician follow-up, leading to improved HTN control, a cluster randomized trial (BARBER-1) of HTN control was conducted among black male patrons of 17 black-owned barbershops in Dallas County, Texas (March 2006–December 2008). Participants underwent 10-week baseline BP screening, and then study sites were randomized to a comparison group that received standard BP pamphlets (8 shops, 77 hypertensive patrons per shop) or an intervention group in which barbers continually offered BP checks with haircuts and promoted physician follow-up with sex-specific peer-based health messaging (9 shops, 75 hypertensive patrons per shop). After 10 months, follow-up data were obtained. The primary outcome measure was change in HTN control rate for each barbershop. <h3>Results</h3> The HTN control rate increased more in intervention barbershops than in comparison barbershops (absolute group difference, 8.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.8%-16.9%]) (<i>P</i> = .04); the intervention effect persisted after adjustment for covariates (<i>P</i> = .03). A marginal intervention effect was found for systolic BP change (absolute group difference, −2.5 mm Hg [95% CI, −5.3 to 0.3 mm Hg]) (<i>P</i> = .08). <h3>Conclusions</h3> The effect of BP screening on HTN control among black male barbershop patrons was improved when barbers were enabled to become health educators, monitor BP, and promote physician follow-up. Further research is warranted. <h3>Trial Registration</h3> clinicaltrials.gov Identifier:NCT00325533

Although heart failure is common among women with coronary disease, the risk factors for developing heart failure have not been well studied. We determined the risk factors for developing heart failure among postmenopausal women with established coronary disease.This is a prospective cohort study using data from the Heart and Estrogen/progestin Replacement Study (HERS), a randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trial of 4.1 years' duration, and subsequent open-label observational follow-up for 2.7 years (HERS II), performed at 20 US clinical centers between 1993 and 2000. Of the 2763 postmenopausal women with established coronary disease in the HERS trial, we studied the 2391 women with no heart failure at baseline by self-report and physical examination. The primary outcome of this analysis was incident heart failure defined by hospital admission or death from heart failure. During the 6.3+/-1.4-year follow-up, 237 women (10%) developed heart failure. Nine predictors were identified: diabetes (defined as a self-reported history of diabetes on treatment), atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, creatinine clearance <40 mL/min, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, current smoking, body mass index >35 kg/m2, left bundle-branch block, and left ventricular hypertrophy. Randomization to estrogen/progestin was not associated with heart failure (hazard ratio=1.0; 95% CI, 0.7 to 1.3). Diabetes was the strongest risk factor (adjusted hazard ratio=3.1; 95% CI, 2.3 to 4.2). Diabetic women with elevated body mass index or depressed creatinine clearance were at highest risk, with annual incidence rates of 7% and 13%, respectively. Among diabetic women, hyperglycemia was associated with heart failure risk (adjusted hazard ratio=3.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 7.5 for fasting glucose >300 mg/dL compared with fasting glucose 80 to 150 mg/dL).We identified 9 predictors of heart failure in postmenopausal women with coronary disease. Diabetes was the strongest risk factor, particularly when poorly controlled or with concomitant renal insufficiency or obesity.

To examine whether the effect of health literacy (HL) on patient-physician communication varies with patient-physician language concordance and communication type.771 outpatients rated three types of patient-physician communication: receptive communication (physician to patient); proactive communication (patient to physician); and interactive, bidirectional communication. We assessed HL and language categories including: English-speakers, Spanish-speakers with Spanish-speaking physicians (Spanish-concordant), and Spanish-speakers without Spanish-speaking physicians (Spanish-discordant).Overall, the mean age of participants was 56 years, 58% were women, 53% were English-speakers, 23% Spanish-concordant, 24% Spanish-discordant, and 51% had limited HL. Thirty percent reported poor receptive, 28% poor proactive, and 56% poor interactive communication. In multivariable analyses, limited HL was associated with poor receptive and proactive communication. Spanish-concordance and discordance was associated with poor interactive communication. In stratified analyses, among English-speakers, limited HL was associated with poor receptive and proactive, but not interactive communication. Among Spanish-concordant participants, limited HL was associated with poor proactive and interactive, but not receptive communication. Spanish-discordant participants reported the worst communication for all types, independent of HL.Limited health literacy impedes patient-physician communication, but its effects vary with language concordance and communication type. For language discordant dyads, language barriers may supersede limited HL in impeding interactive communication.Patient-physician communication interventions for diverse populations need to consider HL, language concordance, and communication type.

With wide availability of low-cost generics, primary prevention with statins has become less expensive. We projected the cost-effectiveness of expanded statin prescribing strategies using low-cost generics and identified conditions under which aggressive prescribing ceases to be cost-effective.We simulated expanded statin prescribing strategies with the coronary heart disease policy model, a Markov model of the US population >35 years of age. If statins cost $4/mo, treatment thresholds of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >160 mg/dL for low-risk persons (0 to 1 risk factor), >130 mg/dL for moderate-risk persons (≥2 risk factors and 10-year risk <10%), and >100 mg/dL for moderately high-risk persons (≥2 risk factors and 10-year risk >10%) would reduce annual healthcare costs by $430 million compared with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Lowering thresholds to >130 mg/dL for persons with 0 risk factors and >100 mg/dL for persons with 1 risk factor and treating all moderate- and moderately high-risk persons regardless of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol would provide additional health benefits for $9900 per quality-adjusted life-year. These findings are insensitive to most adverse effect assumptions (including statin-associated diabetes mellitus and severe hypothetical effects) but are sensitive to large reductions in the efficacy of statins or to a long-term disutility burden for which a patient would trade 30 to 80 days of life to avoid 30 years of statins.Low-cost statins are cost-effective for most persons with even modestly elevated cholesterol or any coronary heart disease risk factors if they do not mind taking a pill daily. Adverse effects are unlikely to outweigh benefits in any subgroup in which statins are found to be efficacious.

Background: High blood pressure in middle age is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but the consequences of low-level elevations during young adulthood are unknown. Objective: To measure the association between prehypertension exposure before age 35 years and coronary calcium later in life. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Four communities in the United States. Participants: Black and white men and women age 18 to 30 years recruited for the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) Study in 1985 through 1986 who were without hypertension before age 35 years. Measurements: Blood pressure trajectories for each participant were estimated by using measurements from 7 examinations over the course of 20 years. Cumulative exposure to blood pressure in the prehypertension range (systolic blood pressure of 120 to 139 mm Hg, or diastolic blood pressure of 80 to 89 mm Hg) from age 20 to 35 years was calculated in units of mm Hg–years (similar to pack-years of tobacco exposure) and related to the presence of coronary calcium measured at each participant's last examination (mean age, 44 years [SD, 4]). Results: Among 3560 participants, the 635 (18%) who developed prehypertension before age 35 years were more often black, male, overweight, and of lower socioeconomic status. Exposure to prehypertension before age 35 years, especially systolic prehypertension, showed a graded association with coronary calcium later in life (coronary calcium prevalence of 15%, 24%, and 38% for 0, 1 to 30, and >30 mm Hg–years of exposure, respectively; P < 0.001). This association remained strong after adjustment for blood pressure elevation after age 35 years and other coronary risk factors and participant characteristics. Limitation: Coronary calcium, although a strong predictor of future coronary heart disease, is not a clinical outcome. Conclusion: Prehypertension during young adulthood is common and is associated with coronary atherosclerosis 20 years later. Keeping systolic pressure below 120 mm Hg before age 35 years may provide important health benefits later in life.

Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico.We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events occurred in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 y). This study's strengths include the use of an established mathematical model of CVD and use of contemporary Mexican vital statistics, data from health surveys, healthcare costs, and SSB price elasticity estimates as well as probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty. The limitations of the study include reliance on US-based studies for certain inputs where Mexico-specific data were lacking (specifically the associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes [from the Framingham Heart Study] and SSB calorie compensation assumptions), limited data on healthcare costs other than those related to diabetes, and lack of information on long-term SSB price elasticity that is specific to geographic and economic subgroups.Mexico's high diabetes prevalence represents a public health crisis. While the long-term impact of Mexico's SSB tax is not yet known, these projections, based on observed consumption reductions, suggest that Mexico's SSB tax may substantially decrease morbidity and mortality from diabetes and CVD while reducing healthcare costs.

Blacks have higher rates of cardiovascular disease than whites. The age at which these differential rates emerge has not been fully examined.We examined cardiovascular disease prevalence and mortality among black and white adults across the adult age spectrum and explored potential mediators of these differential disease prevalence rates.We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 1999-2006. We estimated age-adjusted and age-specific prevalence ratios (PR) for cardiovascular disease (heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction) for blacks versus whites in adults aged 35 years and older and examined potential explanatory factors. From the National Compressed Mortality File 5-year aggregate file of 1999-2003, we determined age-specific cardiovascular disease mortality rates.In young adulthood, cardiovascular disease prevalence was higher in blacks than whites (35-44 years PR 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.4). The black-white PR decreased with each decade of advancing age (P for trend=.04), leading to a narrowing of the racial gap at older ages (65-74 years PR 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.6; > or =75 years PR 1.0; 95% CI, 0.7-1.4). Clinical and socioeconomic factors mediated some, but not all, of the excess cardiovascular disease prevalence among young to middle-aged blacks. Over a quarter (28%) of all cardiovascular disease deaths among blacks occurred in those aged <65 years, compared with 13% among whites.Reducing black/white disparities in cardiovascular disease will require a focus on young and middle-aged blacks.

Background Modifiable lifestyle-related factors are associated with risk of coronary heart disease and may also influence kidney disease risk. Study Design Community-based prospective cohort study. Setting & Participants 2,354 African American and white participants aged 28-40 years without baseline microalbuminuria or estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 recruited from 4 US centers: Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; and Oakland, CA. Factors Current smoking, physical activity, fast food habits, obesity, and diet quality, which was based on 8 fundamental components of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet, including increased intake of fruits, vegetables, low-fat dairy products, whole grains, and nuts and legumes and reduced intake of sodium, sugar-sweetened beverages, and red and processed meats. Outcomes & Measurements Spot urine albumin-creatinine ratios were obtained at baseline (1995-1996) and three 5-year follow-up examinations (5, 10, and 15 years' follow-up). Incident microalbuminuria was defined as the presence of age- and sex-adjusted albumin-creatinine ratio ≥25 mg/g at 2 or more of the successive follow-up examinations. Results During the 15-year follow-up, 77 (3.3%) individuals developed incident microalbuminuria. After multivariable adjustment, poor diet quality (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.4) and obesity (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3) were associated significantly with microalbuminuria; current smoking (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9-2.8) was associated with microalbuminuria, although the CI crossed 1.0. Neither low physical activity (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5-1.8) nor fast food consumption (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-2.3) was associated with microalbuminuria. Compared with individuals with no unhealthy lifestyle-related factors (poor diet quality, current smoking, and obesity), adjusted odds of incident microalbuminuria were 131%, 273%, and 634% higher for the presence of 1 (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3), 2 (OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.8-7.7), and 3 (OR, 7.3; 95% CI, 2.1-26.1) unhealthy lifestyle-related factors. Limitations Self-reported dietary history and physical activity, low number of outcomes. Conclusions Consuming an unhealthy diet and obesity are associated with incident microalbuminuria. Modifiable lifestyle-related factors are associated with risk of coronary heart disease and may also influence kidney disease risk. Community-based prospective cohort study. 2,354 African American and white participants aged 28-40 years without baseline microalbuminuria or estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 recruited from 4 US centers: Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; and Oakland, CA. Current smoking, physical activity, fast food habits, obesity, and diet quality, which was based on 8 fundamental components of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet, including increased intake of fruits, vegetables, low-fat dairy products, whole grains, and nuts and legumes and reduced intake of sodium, sugar-sweetened beverages, and red and processed meats. Spot urine albumin-creatinine ratios were obtained at baseline (1995-1996) and three 5-year follow-up examinations (5, 10, and 15 years' follow-up). Incident microalbuminuria was defined as the presence of age- and sex-adjusted albumin-creatinine ratio ≥25 mg/g at 2 or more of the successive follow-up examinations. During the 15-year follow-up, 77 (3.3%) individuals developed incident microalbuminuria. After multivariable adjustment, poor diet quality (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.4) and obesity (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3) were associated significantly with microalbuminuria; current smoking (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9-2.8) was associated with microalbuminuria, although the CI crossed 1.0. Neither low physical activity (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5-1.8) nor fast food consumption (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-2.3) was associated with microalbuminuria. Compared with individuals with no unhealthy lifestyle-related factors (poor diet quality, current smoking, and obesity), adjusted odds of incident microalbuminuria were 131%, 273%, and 634% higher for the presence of 1 (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3), 2 (OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.8-7.7), and 3 (OR, 7.3; 95% CI, 2.1-26.1) unhealthy lifestyle-related factors. Self-reported dietary history and physical activity, low number of outcomes. Consuming an unhealthy diet and obesity are associated with incident microalbuminuria.

This study uses the results of the FOURIER trial to assess the current cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors over the lifetime analytic horizon for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the United States.

Incarceration is associated with increased cardiovascular disease mortality, but prospective studies exploring mechanisms of this association are lacking.We examined the independent association of prior incarceration with incident hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia using the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study-a cohort of young adults aged 18 to 30 years at enrollment in 1985-1986, balanced by sex, race (black and white), and education (high school education or less). We also examined the association of incarceration with left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiography and with barriers to health care access.Of 4350 participants, 288 (7%) reported previous incarceration. Incident hypertension in young adulthood was more common among former inmates than in those without incarceration history (12% vs 7%; odds ratio, 1.7 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.2-2.6]), and this association persisted after adjustment for smoking, alcohol and illicit drug use, and family income (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0-2.6]). Incarceration was significantly associated with incident hypertension in those groups with the highest prevalence of prior incarceration, ie, black men (AOR, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]) and less-educated participants (AOR, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.0-17.3]). Former inmates were more likely to have left ventricular hypertrophy (AOR, 2.7, [95% CI, 0.9-7.9]) and to report no regular source for medical care (AOR, 2.5, [95% CI, 1.3-4.8]). Cholesterol levels and diabetes rates did not differ by history of incarceration.Incarceration is associated with future hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy among young adults. Identification and treatment of hypertension may be important in reducing cardiovascular disease risk among formerly incarcerated individuals.

To estimate whether women aged 20-32 years who fulfilled National Institutes of Health criteria for polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) would be at higher risk for subsequent development of incident diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, and to estimate whether normal-weight women with PCOS would have the same degree of cardiovascular risk as overweight women with PCOS.We estimated the association of PCOS with incident diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension over a period of 18 years among 1,127 white and African-American women in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults cohort. We classified women at baseline (ages 20-32 years) based on self-reported symptoms and serum androgen measures using National Institutes of Health PCOS criteria. We estimated the association of PCOS and subsequent cardiovascular risk factors, independent of baseline body mass index (BMI), using multivariable logistic regression. Additionally, among 746 women with a second assessment of PCOS at ages 34-46 years, we estimated the association of persistent PCOS with cardiovascular risk factors.Of 1,127 women, 53 (4.7%) met criteria for PCOS at ages 20-32 years. Polycystic ovary syndrome was associated with a twofold higher odds of incident diabetes (23.1% compared with 13.1%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.4, confidence interval [CI] 1.2-4.9) and dyslipidemia (41.9% compared with 27.7%, AOR 1.9, CI 1.0-3.6) over the course of 18 years; the association with incident hypertension was not significant (26.9% compared with 26.3%, AOR 1.7, CI 0.8-3.3). Normal-weight women with PCOS (n=31) had a threefold higher odds of incident diabetes compared with normal-weight women without PCOS (AOR 3.1, CI 1.2-8.0). Compared with those without PCOS, women with persistent PCOS (n=11) had the highest odds of diabetes (AOR 7.2, CI 1.1-46.5).Polycystic ovary syndrome is associated with subsequent incident diabetes and dyslipidemia, independent of BMI. Diabetes risk may be greatest for women with persistent PCOS symptoms.II.

Low literacy increases the risk for many adverse health outcomes, but the relationship between literacy and adverse outcomes in heart failure (HF) has not been well studied. We studied a cohort of ambulatory patients with symptomatic HF (NYHA Class II-IV within the past 6 months) who were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of self-care training recruited from internal medicine and cardiology clinics at four academic medical centers in the US. The primary outcome was combined all-cause hospitalization or death, with a secondary outcome of hospitalization for HF. Outcomes were assessed through blinded interviews and subsequent chart reviews, with adjudication of cause by a panel of masked assessors. Literacy was measured using the short Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults. We used negative binomial regression to examine whether the incidence of the primary and secondary outcomes differed according to literacy. Of the 595 study participants, 37 % had low literacy. Mean age was 61, 31 % were NYHA class III/IV at baseline, 16 % were Latino, and 38 % were African-American. Those with low literacy were older, had a higher NYHA class, and were more likely to be Latino (all p < 0.001). Adjusting for site only, participants with low literacy had an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.39 (95 % CI: 0.99, 1.94) for all-cause hospitalization or death and 1.36 (1.11, 1.66) for HF-related hospitalization. After adjusting for demographic, clinical, and self-management factors, the IRRs were 1.31 (1.06, 1.63) for all-cause hospitalization and death and 1.46 (1.20, 1.78) for HF-related hospitalization. Low literacy increased the risk of hospitalization for ambulatory patients with heart failure. Interventions designed to mitigate literacy-related disparities in outcomes are warranted.

Variants in the APOL1 gene are associated with kidney disease in blacks. We examined associations of APOL1 with incident albuminuria and kidney function decline among 3030 young adults with preserved GFR in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. eGFR by cystatin C (eGFRcys) and albumin-to-creatinine ratio were measured at scheduled examinations. Participants were white (n=1700), high-risk black (two APOL1 risk alleles, n=176), and low-risk black (zero/one risk allele, n=1154). Mean age was 35 years, mean eGFRcys was 107 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and 13.2% of blacks had two APOL1 alleles. The incidence rate per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval) for albuminuria over 15 years was 15.6 (10.6–22.1) for high-risk blacks, 7.8 (6.4–9.4) for low-risk blacks, and 3.9 (3.1–4.8) for whites. Compared with whites, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident albuminuria was 5.71 (3.64–8.94) for high-risk blacks and 2.32 (1.73–3.13) for low-risk blacks. Adjustment for risk factors attenuated the difference between low-risk blacks and whites (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 0.86–1.71). After adjustment, high-risk blacks had a 0.45% faster yearly eGFRcys decline over 9.3 years compared with whites. Low-risk blacks also had a faster yearly eGFRcys decline compared with whites, but this difference was attenuated after adjustment for risk factors and socioeconomic position. In conclusion, blacks with two APOL1 risk alleles had the highest risk for albuminuria and eGFRcys decline in young adulthood, whereas disparities between low-risk blacks and whites were related to differences in traditional risk factors.

<h3>Background</h3> Childhood asthma prevalence and morbidity varies among Latinos in the United States, with Puerto Ricans having the highest and Mexicans the lowest. <h3>Objective</h3> To determine whether genetic ancestry is associated with the odds of asthma among Latinos, and secondarily whether genetic ancestry is associated with lung function among Latino children. <h3>Methods</h3> We analyzed 5493 Latinos with and without asthma from 3 independent studies. For each participant, we estimated the proportion of African, European, and Native American ancestry using genome-wide data. We tested whether genetic ancestry was associated with the presence of asthma and lung function among subjects with and without asthma. Odds ratios (OR) and effect sizes were assessed for every 20% increase in each ancestry. <h3>Results</h3> Native American ancestry was associated with lower odds of asthma (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.78, <i>P</i> = 8.0 × 10⁻¹⁵), while African ancestry was associated with higher odds of asthma (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.14-1.72, <i>P</i> = .001). These associations were robust to adjustment for covariates related to early life exposures, air pollution, and socioeconomic status. Among children with asthma, African ancestry was associated with lower lung function, including both pre- and post-bronchodilator measures of FEV₁ (−77 ± 19 mL; <i>P</i> = 5.8 × 10⁻⁵ and −83 ± 19 mL; <i>P</i> = 1.1 x 10⁻⁵, respectively) and forced vital capacity (−100 ± 21 mL; <i>P</i> = 2.7 × 10⁻⁶ and −107 ± 22 mL; <i>P</i> = 1.0 x 10⁻⁶, respectively). <h3>Conclusion</h3> Differences in the proportions of genetic ancestry can partially explain disparities in asthma susceptibility and lung function among Latinos.

The burden of asthma is highest among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations; however, its impact is differentially distributed among racial and ethnic groups.To assess the collective effect of maternal educational attainment, annual household income, and insurance type on childhood asthma among minority, urban youth.We included Mexican American (n = 485), other Latino (n = 217), and African American (n = 1,141) children (aged 8-21 yr) with and without asthma from the San Francisco Bay Area. An index was derived from maternal educational attainment, annual household income, and insurance type to assess the collective effect of socioeconomic status on predicting asthma. Logistic regression stratified by racial and ethnic group was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). We further examined whether acculturation explained the socioeconomic-asthma association in our Latino population.In the adjusted analyses, African American children had 23% greater odds of asthma with each decrease in the socioeconomic index (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.38). Conversely, Mexican American children have 17% reduced odds of asthma with each decrease in the socioeconomic index (aOR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.96) and this relationship was not fully explained by acculturation. This association was not observed in the other Latino group.Socioeconomic status plays an important role in predicting asthma, but has different effects depending on race and ethnicity. Further steps are necessary to better understand the risk factors through which socioeconomic status could operate in these populations to prevent asthma.

In 2014, 19,999 cases of syphilis were reported in the United States. Left untreated, syphilis can progress to late-stage disease in about 15% of persons who are infected. Late-stage syphilis can lead to development of inflammatory lesions throughout the body, which can lead to cardiovascular or organ dysfunction. Syphilis infection also increases the risk for acquiring or transmitting HIV infection.To update the 2004 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for syphilis infection in nonpregnant adults. Screening for syphilis in pregnant women was updated in a separate recommendation statement in 2009 (A recommendation).The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on screening for syphilis infection in asymptomatic, nonpregnant adults and adolescents, including patients coinfected with other sexually transmitted infections (such as HIV).The USPSTF found convincing evidence that screening for syphilis infection in asymptomatic, nonpregnant persons at increased risk for infection provides substantial benefit. Accurate screening tests are available to identify syphilis infection in populations at increased risk. Effective treatment with antibiotics can prevent progression to late-stage disease, with small associated harms, providing an overall substantial health benefit.The USPSTF recommends screening for syphilis infection in persons who are at increased risk for infection. (A recommendation).

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasing global public health concern, particularly among populations of African ancestry. We performed an interrogation of known renal loci, genome-wide association (GWA), and IBC candidate-gene SNP association analyses in African Americans from the CARe Renal Consortium. In up to 8,110 participants, we performed meta-analyses of GWA and IBC array data for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2), urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and microalbuminuria (UACR >30 mg/g) and interrogated the 250 kb flanking region around 24 SNPs previously identified in European Ancestry renal GWAS analyses. Findings were replicated in up to 4,358 African Americans. To assess function, individually identified genes were knocked down in zebrafish embryos by morpholino antisense oligonucleotides. Expression of kidney-specific genes was assessed by in situ hybridization, and glomerular filtration was evaluated by dextran clearance. Overall, 23 of 24 previously identified SNPs had direction-consistent associations with eGFR in African Americans, 2 of which achieved nominal significance (UMOD, PIP5K1B). Interrogation of the flanking regions uncovered 24 new index SNPs in African Americans, 12 of which were replicated (UMOD, ANXA9, GCKR, TFDP2, DAB2, VEGFA, ATXN2, GATM, SLC22A2, TMEM60, SLC6A13, and BCAS3). In addition, we identified 3 suggestive loci at DOK6 (p-value = 5.3×10−7) and FNDC1 (p-value = 3.0×10−7) for UACR, and KCNQ1 with eGFR (p = 3.6×10−6). Morpholino knockdown of kcnq1 in the zebrafish resulted in abnormal kidney development and filtration capacity. We identified several SNPs in association with eGFR in African Ancestry individuals, as well as 3 suggestive loci for UACR and eGFR. Functional genetic studies support a role for kcnq1 in glomerular development in zebrafish.

Background Poor access to food among low-income adults has been recognized as a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there are no data for the impact of food insecurity on progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesized that food insecurity would be independently associated with risk for ESRD among persons with and without earlier stages of CKD. Study Design Longitudinal cohort study. Setting & Participants 2,320 adults (aged ≥ 20 years) with CKD and 10,448 adults with no CKD enrolled in NHANES III (1988-1994) with household income ≤ 400% of the federal poverty level linked to the Medicare ESRD Registry for a median follow-up of 12 years. Predictor Food insecurity, defined as an affirmative response to the food-insecurity screening question. Outcome Development of ESRD. Measurements Demographics, income, diabetes, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albuminuria. Dietary acid load was estimated from 24-hour dietary recall. We used a Fine-Gray competing-risk model to estimate the relative hazard (RH) for ESRD associated with food insecurity after adjusting for covariates. Results 4.5% of adults with CKD were food insecure. Food-insecure individuals were more likely to be younger and have diabetes (29.9%), hypertension (73.9%), or albuminuria (90.4%) as compared with their counterparts (P < 0.05). Median dietary acid load in the food-secure versus food-insecure group was 51.2 mEq/d versus 55.6 mEq/d, respectively (P = 0.05). Food-insecure adults were more likely to develop ESRD (RH, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.08-3.10) compared with food-secure adults after adjustment for demographics, income, diabetes, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albuminuria. In the non-CKD group, 5.7% were food insecure. We did not find a significant association between food insecurity and ESRD (RH, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.40-1.49). Limitations Use of single 24-hour diet recall; lack of laboratory follow-up data and measure of changes in food insecurity over time; follow-up of cohort ended 10 years ago. Conclusions Among adults with CKD, food insecurity was independently associated with a higher likelihood of developing ESRD. Innovative approaches to address food insecurity should be tested for their impact on CKD outcomes. Poor access to food among low-income adults has been recognized as a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there are no data for the impact of food insecurity on progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesized that food insecurity would be independently associated with risk for ESRD among persons with and without earlier stages of CKD. Longitudinal cohort study. 2,320 adults (aged ≥ 20 years) with CKD and 10,448 adults with no CKD enrolled in NHANES III (1988-1994) with household income ≤ 400% of the federal poverty level linked to the Medicare ESRD Registry for a median follow-up of 12 years. Food insecurity, defined as an affirmative response to the food-insecurity screening question. Development of ESRD. Demographics, income, diabetes, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albuminuria. Dietary acid load was estimated from 24-hour dietary recall. We used a Fine-Gray competing-risk model to estimate the relative hazard (RH) for ESRD associated with food insecurity after adjusting for covariates. 4.5% of adults with CKD were food insecure. Food-insecure individuals were more likely to be younger and have diabetes (29.9%), hypertension (73.9%), or albuminuria (90.4%) as compared with their counterparts (P < 0.05). Median dietary acid load in the food-secure versus food-insecure group was 51.2 mEq/d versus 55.6 mEq/d, respectively (P = 0.05). Food-insecure adults were more likely to develop ESRD (RH, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.08-3.10) compared with food-secure adults after adjustment for demographics, income, diabetes, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albuminuria. In the non-CKD group, 5.7% were food insecure. We did not find a significant association between food insecurity and ESRD (RH, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.40-1.49). Use of single 24-hour diet recall; lack of laboratory follow-up data and measure of changes in food insecurity over time; follow-up of cohort ended 10 years ago. Among adults with CKD, food insecurity was independently associated with a higher likelihood of developing ESRD. Innovative approaches to address food insecurity should be tested for their impact on CKD outcomes.

Self-care training can reduce hospitalization for heart failure (HF), and more intensive intervention may benefit more vulnerable patients, including those with low literacy.A 1-year, multisite, randomized, controlled comparative effectiveness trial with 605 patients with HF was conducted. Those randomized to a single session received a 40-minute in-person, literacy-sensitive training; the multisession group received the same initial training and then ongoing telephone-based support. The primary outcome was combined incidence of all-cause hospitalization or death; secondary outcomes included HF-related hospitalization and HF-related quality of life, with prespecified stratification by literacy. Overall, the incidence of all-cause hospitalization and death did not differ between intervention groups (incidence rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.22). The effect of multisession training compared with single-session training differed by literacy group: Among those with low literacy, the multisession training yielded a lower incidence of all-cause hospitalization and death (incidence rate ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.25), and among those with higher literacy, the multisession intervention yielded a higher incidence (incidence rate ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.50; interaction P=0.048). For HF-related hospitalization, among those with low literacy, multisession training yielded a lower incidence (incidence rate ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-1.12), and among those with higher literacy, it yielded a higher incidence (incidence rate ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.88; interaction P=0.005). HF-related quality of life improved more for patients receiving multisession than for those receiving single-session interventions at 1 and 6 months, but the difference at 12 months was smaller. Effects on HF-related quality of life did not differ by literacy.Overall, an intensive multisession intervention did not change clinical outcomes compared with a single-session intervention. People with low literacy appear to benefit more from multisession interventions than people with higher literacy.URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00378950.

The optimal strategy for promoting self-care for heart failure (HF) is unclear.We conducted a randomized trial to determine whether a "teach to goal" (TTG) educational and behavioral support program provided incremental benefits to a brief (1 hour) educational intervention (BEI) for knowledge, self-care behaviors, and HF-related quality of life (HFQOL). The TTG program taught use of adjusted-dose diuretics and then reinforced learning goals and behaviors with 5 to 8 telephone counseling sessions over 1 month. Participants' (n = 605) mean age was 61 years; 37% had marginal or inadequate literacy; 69% had ejection fraction <0.45; and 31% had Class III or IV symptoms. The TTG group had greater improvements in general and salt knowledge (P < .001) and greater increases in self-care behaviors (from mean 4.8 to 7.6 for TTG vs. 5.2 to 6.7 for BEI; P < .001). HFQOL improved from 58.5 to 64.6 for the TTG group but did not change for the BEI group (64.7 to 63.9; P < .001 for the difference in change scores). Improvements were similar regardless of participants' literacy level.Telephone reinforcement of learning goals and self-care behaviors improved knowledge, health behaviors, and HF-related QOL compared to a single education session.

<h3>Importance</h3> Adults who adhere to national guidelines for a healthful diet and physical activity have lower rates of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than those who do not. All persons, regardless of their risk status for cardiovascular disease (CVD), can gain health benefits from healthy eating behaviors and appropriate physical activity. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on behavioral counseling to promote a healthful diet and physical activity for cardiovascular disease prevention among adults without obesity who do not have cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia, abnormal blood glucose levels, or diabetes). <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on whether primary care–relevant counseling interventions to promote a healthful diet, physical activity, or both improve health outcomes, intermediate outcomes associated with CVD, or dietary or physical activity behaviors in adults; interventions to reduce sedentary behaviors; and the harms of behavioral counseling interventions. <h3>Findings</h3> Counseling interventions result in improvements in healthful behaviors and small but potentially important improvements in intermediate outcomes, including reductions in blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and improvements in measures of adiposity. The overall magnitude of benefit related to these interventions is positive but small. The potential harms are at most small, leading the USPSTF to conclude that these interventions have a small net benefit for adults without obesity who do not have CVD risk factors. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends that primary care professionals individualize the decision to offer or refer adults without obesity who do not have hypertension, dyslipidemia, abnormal blood glucose levels, or diabetes to behavioral counseling to promote a healthful diet and physical activity. Existing evidence indicates a positive but small benefit of behavioral counseling for the prevention of CVD in this population. Persons who are interested and ready to make behavioral changes may be most likely to benefit from behavioral counseling. (C recommendation)

Background: Evidence to guide primary prevention in adults aged 75 years or older is limited. Objective: To project the population impact and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in adults aged 75 years or older. Design: Forecasting study using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a Markov model. Data Sources: Trial, cohort, and nationally representative data sources. Target Population: U.S. adults aged 75 to 94 years. Time Horizon: 10 years. Perspective: Health care system. Intervention: Statins for primary prevention based on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol threshold of 4.91 mmol/L (190 mg/dL), 4.14 mmol/L (160 mg/dL), or 3.36 mmol/L (130 mg/dL); presence of diabetes; or 10-year risk score of at least 7.5%. Outcome Measures: Myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD) death, disability-adjusted life-years, and costs. Results of Base-Case Analysis: All adults aged 75 years or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey have a 10-year risk score greater than 7.5%. If statins had no effect on functional limitation or cognitive impairment, all primary prevention strategies would prevent MIs and CHD deaths and be cost-effective. Treatment of all adults aged 75 to 94 years would result in 8 million additional users and prevent 105 000 (4.3%) incident MIs and 68 000 (2.3%) CHD deaths at an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year of $25 200. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: An increased relative risk for functional limitation or mild cognitive impairment of 1.10 to 1.29 could offset the cardiovascular benefits. Limitation: Limited trial evidence targeting primary prevention in adults aged 75 years or older. Conclusion: At effectiveness similar to that in trials, statins are projected to be cost-effective for primary prevention; however, even a small increase in geriatric-specific adverse effects could offset the cardiovascular benefit. Improved data on the potential benefits and harms of statins are needed to inform decision making. Primary Funding Source: American Heart Association Western States Affiliate, National Institute on Aging, and the National Institute for Diabetes on Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Although there is evidence linking smoking and heart failure (HF), the association between lifetime smoking exposure and HF in older adults and the strength of this association among current and past smokers is not well known.We examined the association between smoking status, pack-years of exposure, and incident HF risk in 2,125 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (age 73.6 ± 2.9 years, 69.7% women, 54.2% whites) using proportional hazard models.At inception, 54.8% of participants were nonsmokers, 34.8% were past smokers, and 10.4% were current smokers. During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF incidence was 11.4 per 1,000 person-years in nonsmokers, 15.2 in past smokers (hazard ratio [HR] vs nonsmokers 1.33, 95% CI 1.01-1.76, P = .045), and 21.9 in current smokers (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.30-2.84, P = .001). After adjusting for HF risk factors, incident coronary events, and competing risk for death, a dose-effect association between pack-years of exposure and HF risk was observed (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.14, P < .001 per 10 pack-years). Heart failure risk was not modulated by pack-years of exposure in current smokers. In past smokers, HR for HF was 1.05 (95% CI 0.64-1.72) for 1 to 11 pack-years, 1.23 (95% CI 0.82-1.83) for 12 to 35 pack-years, and 1.64 (95% CI 1.11-2.42) for >35 pack-years of exposure in fully adjusted models (P < .001 for trend) compared with nonsmokers.In older adults, both current and past cigarette smoking increase HF risk. In current smokers, this risk is high irrespective of pack-years of exposure, whereas in past smokers, there was a dose-effect association.

BACKGROUND Obesity is associated with poor asthma control, increased asthma morbidity, and decreased response to inhaled corticosteroids. We hypothesized that obesity would be associated with decreased bronchodilator responsiveness in children and adolescents with asthma. In addition, we hypothesized that subjects who were obese and unresponsive to bronchodilator would have worse asthma control and would require more asthma controller medications. METHODS In the Study of African Americans, Asthma, Genes, and Environments (SAGE II) and the Genes-environments and Admixture in Latino Americans (GALA II) study, two identical, parallel, case-control studies of asthma, we examined the association between obesity and bronchodilator response in 2,963 black and Latino subjects enrolled from 2008 to 2013 using multivariable logistic regression. Using bronchodilator responsiveness, we compared asthma symptoms, controller medication usage, and asthma exacerbations between nonobese (< 95th' BMI) and obese (≥ 95th' BMI) subjects. RESULTS The odds of being bronchodilator unresponsive were 24' (OR, 1.24; 95' CI, 1.03-1.49) higher among obese children and adolescents compared with their not obese counterparts after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, sex, recruitment site, baseline lung function (FEV1/FVC), and controller medication. Bronchodilator-unresponsive obese subjects were more likely to report wheezing (OR, 1.38; 95' CI, 1.13-1.70), being awakened at night (OR, 1.34; 95' CI, 1.09-1.65), using leukotriene receptor inhibitors (OR, 1.33; 95' CI, 1.05-1.70), and using inhaled corticosteroid with long-acting β2-agonist (OR, 1.37; 95' CI, 1.05-1.78) than were their nonobese counterpart. These associations were not seen in the bronchodilator-responsive group. CONCLUSIONS Obesity is associated with bronchodilator unresponsiveness among black and Latino children and adolescents with asthma. The findings on obesity and bronchodilator unresponsiveness represent a unique opportunity to identify factors affecting asthma control in blacks and Latinos. Obesity is associated with poor asthma control, increased asthma morbidity, and decreased response to inhaled corticosteroids. We hypothesized that obesity would be associated with decreased bronchodilator responsiveness in children and adolescents with asthma. In addition, we hypothesized that subjects who were obese and unresponsive to bronchodilator would have worse asthma control and would require more asthma controller medications. In the Study of African Americans, Asthma, Genes, and Environments (SAGE II) and the Genes-environments and Admixture in Latino Americans (GALA II) study, two identical, parallel, case-control studies of asthma, we examined the association between obesity and bronchodilator response in 2,963 black and Latino subjects enrolled from 2008 to 2013 using multivariable logistic regression. Using bronchodilator responsiveness, we compared asthma symptoms, controller medication usage, and asthma exacerbations between nonobese (< 95th' BMI) and obese (≥ 95th' BMI) subjects. The odds of being bronchodilator unresponsive were 24' (OR, 1.24; 95' CI, 1.03-1.49) higher among obese children and adolescents compared with their not obese counterparts after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, sex, recruitment site, baseline lung function (FEV1/FVC), and controller medication. Bronchodilator-unresponsive obese subjects were more likely to report wheezing (OR, 1.38; 95' CI, 1.13-1.70), being awakened at night (OR, 1.34; 95' CI, 1.09-1.65), using leukotriene receptor inhibitors (OR, 1.33; 95' CI, 1.05-1.70), and using inhaled corticosteroid with long-acting β2-agonist (OR, 1.37; 95' CI, 1.05-1.78) than were their nonobese counterpart. These associations were not seen in the bronchodilator-responsive group. Obesity is associated with bronchodilator unresponsiveness among black and Latino children and adolescents with asthma. The findings on obesity and bronchodilator unresponsiveness represent a unique opportunity to identify factors affecting asthma control in blacks and Latinos.

<h3>Importance</h3> Individuals with low socioeconomic status (SES) bear a disproportionate share of the coronary heart disease (CHD) burden, and CHD remains the leading cause of mortality in low-income US counties. <h3>Objective</h3> To estimate the excess CHD burden among individuals in the United States with low SES and the proportions attributable to traditional risk factors and to other factors associated with low SES. <h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3> This computer simulation study used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a model of CHD and stroke incidence, prevalence, and mortality among adults in the United States, to project the excess burden of early CHD. The proportion of this excess burden attributable to traditional CHD risk factors (smoking, high blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, type 2 diabetes, and high body mass index) compared with the proportion attributable to other risk factors associated with low SES was estimated. Model inputs were derived from nationally representative US data and cohort studies of incident CHD. All US adults aged 35 to 64 years, stratified by SES, were included in the simulations. <h3>Exposures</h3> Low SES was defined as income below 150% of the federal poverty level or educational level less than a high school diploma. <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> Premature (before age 65 years) myocardial infarction (MI) rates and CHD deaths. <h3>Results</h3> Approximately 31.2 million US adults aged 35 to 64 years had low SES, of whom approximately 16 million (51.3%) were women. Compared with individuals with higher SES, both men and women in the low-SES group had double the rate of MIs (men: 34.8 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 31.0-38.8] vs 17.6 [95% UI, 16.0-18.6]; women: 15.1 [95% UI, 13.4-16.9] vs 6.8 [95% UI, 6.3-7.4]) and CHD deaths (men: 14.3 [95% UI, 13.0-15.7] vs 7.6 [95% UI, 7.3-7.9]; women: 5.6 [95% UI, 5.0-6.2] vs 2.5 [95% UI, 2.3-2.6]) per 10 000 person-years. A higher burden of traditional CHD risk factors in adults with low SES explained 40% of these excess events; the remaining 60% of these events were attributable to other factors associated with low SES. Among a simulated cohort of 1.3 million adults with low SES who were 35 years old in 2015, the model projected that 250 000 individuals (19%) will develop CHD by age 65 years, with 119 000 (48%) of these CHD cases occurring in excess of those expected for individuals with higher SES. <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> This study suggested that, for approximately one-quarter of US adults aged 35 to 64 years, low SES was substantially associated with early CHD burden. Although biomedical interventions to modify traditional risk factors may decrease the disease burden, disparities by SES may remain without addressing SES itself.

Improvements in cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates among young adults in the past 2 decades have been offset by increasing racial/ethnic and gender disparities, persistence of unhealthy lifestyle habits, overweight and obesity, and other CVD risk factors. To enhance the promotion of cardiovascular health among young adults 18 to 39 years old, the medical and broader public health community must understand the biological, interpersonal, and behavioral features of this life stage. Therefore, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, with support from the Office of Behavioral and Social Science Research, convened a 2-day workshop in Bethesda, Maryland, in September 2017 to identify research challenges and opportunities related to the cardiovascular health of young adults. The current generation of young adults live in an environment undergoing substantial economic, social, and technological transformations, differentiating them from prior research cohorts of young adults. Although the accumulation of clinical and behavioral risk factors for CVD begins early in life, and research suggests early risk is an important determinant of future events, few trials have studied prevention and treatment of CVD in participants <40 years old. Building an evidence base for CVD prevention in this population will require the engagement of young adults, who are often disconnected from the healthcare system and may not prioritize long-term health. These changes demand a repositioning of existing evidence-based treatments to accommodate new sociotechnical contexts. In this article, the authors review the recent literature and current research opportunities to advance the cardiovascular health of today's young adults.

Background: Statins are effective in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline expands recommended statin use, but its cost-effectiveness has not been compared with other guidelines. Methods: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ACC/AHA guideline relative to current use, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and universal statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age over a 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025. Sensitivity analyses varied costs, risks, and benefits. Main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and numbers needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results: Each approach produces substantial benefits and net cost savings relative to the status quo. Full adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline would result in 8.8 million more statin users than the status quo, at a number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 35. The ACC/AHA guideline would potentially result in up to 12.3 million more statin users than the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 68. Moderate-intensity statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age would result in 28.9 million more statin users than the ACC/AHA guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 108. In all cases, benefits would be greater in men than women. Results vary moderately with different risk thresholds for instituting statins and statin toxicity estimates but depend greatly on the disutility caused by daily medication use (pill burden). Conclusions: At a population level, the ACC/AHA guideline for expanded statin use for primary prevention is projected to treat more people, to save more lives, and to cost less compared with Adult Treatment Panel III in both men and women. Whether individuals benefit from long-term statin use for primary prevention depends more on the disutility associated with pill burden than their degree of cardiovascular risk.

<h3>Importance</h3> There is convincing evidence that breastfeeding provides substantial health benefits for children. However, nearly half of all US mothers who initially breastfeed stop doing so by 6 months, and there are significant disparities in breastfeeding rates among younger mothers and in disadvantaged communities. <h3>Objective</h3> To update the 2008 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on primary care interventions to promote breastfeeding. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to support breastfeeding on breastfeeding initiation, duration, and exclusivity. The USPSTF also briefly reviewed the literature on the effects of these interventions on child and maternal health outcomes. <h3>Findings</h3> The USPSTF found adequate evidence that interventions to support breastfeeding, including professional support, peer support, and formal education, change behavior and that the harms of these interventions are no greater than small. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that interventions to support breastfeeding have a moderate net benefit. <h3>Conclusions and Recommendation</h3> The USPSTF recommends providing interventions during pregnancy and after birth to support breastfeeding. (B recommendation)

Food insecurity, or the limited or uncertain access to food resulting from inadequate financial resources, is associated with a higher prevalence of chronic disease in adulthood. Little is known about these relationships specifically in young adulthood, an important time for the development of chronic disease.To determine the association between food insecurity and chronic disease including diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and obstructive airway disease in a nationally representative sample of US young adults.Cross-sectional nationally representative data collected from Wave IV (2008) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health was analyzed using multiple logistic regression models.US young adults ages 24-32 years old MAIN MEASURES: Food insecurity and general health; self-reported diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, "very overweight," and obstructive airway disease; measured obesity derived from body mass index; and inadequate disease control (hemoglobin A1c ≥ 7.0%, blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg) among those with reported diabetes and hypertension.Of the 14,786 young adults in the sample, 11% were food insecure. Food-insecure young adults had greater odds of self-reported poor health (2.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-4.24), diabetes (1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.37), hypertension (1.40, 95% CI 1.14-1.72), being "very overweight" (1.30, 95% CI 1.08-1.57), and obstructive airway disease (1.48, 95% CI 1.22-1.80) in adjusted models compared with young adults who were food secure. Food insecurity was not associated with inadequate disease control among those with diabetes or hypertension.Food insecurity is associated with several self-reported chronic diseases and obesity in young adulthood. Health care providers should screen for food insecurity in young adults and provide referrals when appropriate. Future research should evaluate the impact of early interventions to combat food insecurity on the prevention of downstream health effects in later adulthood.

<h3>Background</h3> Asthma disproportionately affects minority populations and is associated with psychosocial stress such as racial/ethnic discrimination. We aimed to examine the association of perceived discrimination with asthma and poor asthma control in African American and Latino youth. <h3>Methods</h3> We included African American (n = 954), Mexican American (n = 1,086), other Latino (n = 522), and Puerto Rican Islander (n = 1,025) youth aged 8 to 21 years from the Genes-Environments and Admixture in Latino Americans study and the Study of African Americans, Asthma, Genes, and Environments. Asthma was defined by physician diagnosis, and asthma control was defined based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guidelines. Perceived racial/ethnic discrimination was assessed by the Experiences of Discrimination questionnaire, with a focus on school, medical, and public settings. We examined the associations of perceived discrimination with each outcome and whether socioeconomic status (SES) and global African ancestry modified these associations. <h3>Results</h3> African American children reporting any discrimination had a 78% greater odds of experiencing asthma (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.33-2.39) than did those not reporting discrimination. Similarly, African American children faced increased odds of poor asthma control with any experience of discrimination (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.42-2.76) over their counterparts not reporting discrimination. These associations were not observed among Latino children. We observed heterogeneity of the association between reports of discrimination and asthma according to SES, with reports of discrimination increasing the odds of having asthma among low-SES Mexican American youth (interaction <i>P</i> = .01) and among high-SES other Latino youth (interaction <i>P</i> = .04). <h3>Conclusions</h3> Perceived discrimination is associated with increased odds of asthma and poorer control among African American youth. SES exacerbates the effect of perceived discrimination on having asthma among Mexican American and other Latino youth.

To determine adolescent predictors of muscularity-oriented disordered eating behaviors in young men and women using a nationally representative longitudinal sample in the United States and to examine differences by sex.We used nationally representative longitudinal cohort data collected from baseline (11-18 years old, 1994-1995) and 7-year follow-up (18-24 years old, 2001-2002) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We examined adolescent demographic, behavioral, and mental health predictors of young adult muscularity-oriented disordered eating behaviors defined as eating more or differently to gain weight or bulk up, supplements to gain weight or bulk up, or androgenic anabolic steroid use at 7-year follow-up.Of the 14,891 included participants, 22% of males and 5% of females reported any muscularity-oriented disordered eating behavior at follow-up in young adulthood. Factors recorded at adolescence that were prospectively associated with higher odds of muscularity-oriented disordered eating in both sexes included black race, exercising to gain weight, self-perception of being underweight, and lower body mass index z-score. In addition, participation in weightlifting; roller-blading, roller-skating, skate-boarding, or bicycling; and alcohol among males and depressive symptoms among females during adolescence were associated with higher odds of muscularity-oriented disordered eating in young adulthood.Interventions to prevent muscularity-oriented disordered eating behaviors may target at-risk youth, particularly those of black race or who engage in exercise to gain weight. Future research should examine longitudinal health outcomes associated with muscularity-oriented disordered eating behaviors.

COVID-19 mortality increases markedly with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts can have conflicting implications because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota—demographically divergent states—we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups. Vaccination schemas directly implicate equitability of access, both domestically and globally.

Latino people in the US are experiencing higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than any other racial/ethnic group, but it is unclear which sociodemographic subgroups within this diverse population are most affected. Such information is necessary to target policies that prevent further excess mortality and reduce inequities. Using death certificate data for January 1, 2016 through February 29, 2020 and time-series models, we estimated the expected weekly deaths among Latino people in California from March 1 through October 3, 2020. We quantified excess mortality as observed minus expected deaths and risk ratios (RR) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. We considered subgroups categorized by age, sex, nativity, country of birth, educational attainment, occupation, and combinations of these factors. Our results indicate that during the first seven months of the pandemic, Latino deaths in California exceeded expected deaths by 10,316, a 31% increase. Excess death rates were greatest for individuals born in Mexico (RR 1.44; 95% PI, 1.41, 1.48) or a Central American country (RR 1.49; 95% PI, 1.37, 1.64), with less than a high school degree (RR 1.41; 95% PI, 1.35, 1.46), or in food-and-agriculture (RR 1.60; 95% PI, 1.48, 1.74) or manufacturing occupations (RR 1.59; 95% PI, 1.50, 1.69). Immigrant disadvantages in excess death were magnified among working-age Latinos in essential occupations. In sum, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted mortality among Latino immigrants, especially those in unprotected essential jobs. Interventions to reduce these inequities should include targeted vaccination, workplace safety enforcement, and expanded access to medical care and economic support.

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To determine the prevalence of muscle-enhancing behaviors in adolescents and young adults using a nationally representative sample in the USA and to examine differences by sex, race/ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, body mass index, and participation in team sports.Prospective cohort data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, Waves I through III (1994-2002) were analyzed. Engagement in muscle-enhancing behaviors including dietary changes, exercise and weightlifting, supplement use, performance-enhancing substances, and anabolic androgenic steroids were recorded. Multiple logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations, incorporating robust standard errors with clustering by school and within persons, and using national sample weighting, were used to determine associations with muscle-enhancing behaviors across three data collection waves.Of the 18,924 adolescents at baseline, 29.2% of males and 7.0% of females reported weight gain attempts, while 25.2% of males and 3.8% of females reported any muscle-enhancing behavior. All muscle-enhancing behaviors were more common in males compared to females (p<0.001). Among young men 18-26 years old, 15.6% reported using legal performance enhancing substances and 2.7% reported using androgenic anabolic steroids. Factors that were associated with muscle-enhancing behaviors in males across three data collection waves included Black or Hispanic/Latino race/ethnicity, age over 14 years, higher parental education, lower body mass index, and participation in team sports.Muscle-enhancing behaviors ranging from dietary changes to supplement and androgenic anabolic steroid use are common among adolescent and young adult males. Clinicians should consider screening for muscle-enhancing behaviors in these populations.

This time-series analysis examines the excess number of deaths across population subgroups in California during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract Background Though SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been documented in occupational settings and though there is speculation that essential workers face heightened risks for COVID-19, occupational differences in excess mortality have, to date, not been examined. Such information could point to opportunities for intervention, such as workplace modifications and prioritization of vaccine distribution. Methods and findings Using death records from the California Department of Public Health, we estimated excess mortality among Californians 18–65 years of age by occupational sector and occupation, with additional stratification of the sector analysis by race/ethnicity. During the COVID-19 pandemic, working age adults experienced a 22% increase in mortality compared to historical periods. Relative excess mortality was highest in food/agriculture workers (39% increase), transportation/logistics workers (28% increase), facilities (27%) and manufacturing workers (23% increase). Latino Californians experienced a 36% increase in mortality, with a 59% increase among Latino food/agriculture workers. Black Californians experienced a 28% increase in mortality, with a 36% increase for Black retail workers. Asian Californians experienced an 18% increase, with a 40% increase among Asian healthcare workers. Excess mortality among White working-age Californians increased by 6%, with a 16% increase among White food/agriculture workers. Conclusions Certain occupational sectors have been associated with high excess mortality during the pandemic, particularly among racial and ethnic groups also disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In-person essential work is a likely venue of transmission of coronavirus infection and must be addressed through strict enforcement of health orders in workplace settings and protection of in-person workers. Vaccine distribution prioritizing in-person essential workers will be important for reducing excess COVID mortality.

BackgroundRoutine viral testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 infection might facilitate safe airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate global spread of the virus. However, the effectiveness of these test-and-travel strategies to reduce passenger risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and population-level transmission remains unknown.MethodsIn this simulation study, we developed a microsimulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a cohort of 100 000 US domestic airline travellers using publicly available data on COVID-19 clinical cases and published natural history parameters to assign individuals one of five health states of susceptible to infection, latent period, early infection, late infection, or recovered. We estimated a per-day risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 corresponding to a daily incidence of 150 infections per 100 000 people. We assessed five testing strategies: (1) anterior nasal PCR test within 3 days of departure, (2) PCR within 3 days of departure and 5 days after arrival, (3) rapid antigen test on the day of travel (assuming 90% of the sensitivity of PCR during active infection), (4) rapid antigen test on the day of travel and PCR test 5 days after arrival, and (5) PCR test 5 days after arrival. Strategies 2 and 4 included a 5-day quarantine after arrival. The travel period was defined as 3 days before travel to 2 weeks after travel. Under each scenario, individuals who tested positive before travel were not permitted to travel. The primary study outcome was cumulative number of infectious days in the cohort over the travel period without isolation or quarantine (population-level transmission risk), and the key secondary outcome was the number of infectious people detected on the day of travel (passenger risk of infection).FindingsWe estimated that in a cohort of 100 000 airline travellers, in a scenario with no testing or screening, there would be 8357 (95% uncertainty interval 6144–12831) infectious days with 649 (505–950) actively infectious passengers on the day of travel. The pre-travel PCR test reduced the number of infectious days from 8357 to 5401 (3917–8677), a reduction of 36% (29–41) compared with the base case, and identified 569 (88% [76–92]) of 649 actively infectious travellers on the day of flight; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 1474 (1087–2342), a reduction of 82% (80–84) compared with the base case. The rapid antigen test on the day of travel reduced the number of infectious days to 5674 (4126–9081), a reduction of 32% (26–38) compared with the base case, and identified 560 (86% [83–89]) actively infectious travellers; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 2518 (1935–3821), a reduction of 70% (67–72) compared with the base case. The post-travel PCR alone reduced the number of infectious days to 4851 (3714–7679), a reduction of 42% (35–49) compared with the base case.InterpretationRoutine asymptomatic testing for SARS-CoV-2 before travel can be an effective strategy to reduce passenger risk of infection during travel, although abbreviated quarantine with post-travel testing is probably needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when travelling from a high to low incidence setting.FundingUniversity of California, San Francisco.

The aim of the study was to determine the association between food insecurity, sexual risk behaviors, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and substance use in a nationally representative sample of U.S. young adults.Cross-sectional nationally representative data of U.S. young adults aged 24-32 years from Wave IV (2008) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health were analyzed. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were conducted with food insecurity as the independent variable and self-reported STIs, sexual risk behaviors, and substance use as the dependent variables, adjusting for covariates and stratifying by sex.Of the 14,786 young adults in the sample, 14% of young women and 9% of young men were food insecure. Food-insecure young women had greater odds of any STI, HIV, chlamydia, exchanging sex for money, and multiple concurrent sex partners in the past 12 months compared to young women reporting food security, adjusting for covariates. Food insecurity was associated with higher odds of any STI, chlamydia, and exchanging sex for money among young men who identify as gay or bisexual, but not in the general population of young men. Food insecurity was associated with greater odds of marijuana use, methamphetamine use, and nonmedical use of prescription opioids, sedatives, and stimulants in both young men and women.Food insecurity is associated with risk behaviors and self-reported STIs, including HIV, in young adulthood. Health care providers should screen for food insecurity in young adults and provide referrals when appropriate.

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To determine sociodemographic correlates of contemporary screen time use among a diverse population-based sample of 9- and 10-year-old children.In 2021, we analyzed cross-sectional baseline (2016-2018) data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study (n = 10 755). Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations between sociodemographic factors (sex, race/ethnicity, country of birth, household income, parental education) and 6 contemporary forms of screen time (television, videos [eg, YouTube], video games, social networking, texting, and video chat).On average, children reported 3.99 hours of screen time per day across 6 modalities, with the most time spent watching/streaming television shows/movies (1.31 hours), playing video games (1.06 hours), and watching/streaming videos (1.05 hours). On average, Black children reported 1.58 more hours of screen time per day and Asian children reported 0.35 less hours of screen time per day compared with White children (mean 3.46 hours per day), and these trends persisted across most modalities. Boys reported higher overall screen time (0.75 hours more) than girls, which was primarily attributed to video games and videos. Girls reported more time texting, social networking, and video chatting than boys. Higher income was associated with lower screen time usage across all modalities except video chat. However, in high-income households, Latinx children reported 0.65 more hours of screen time per day than White children.Given the sociodemographic differences in child screen use, guideline implementation strategies can focus on key populations, encourage targeted counseling by pediatricians, and adapt Family Media Use Plans for diverse backgrounds.

<h3>Importance</h3> Black patients with hypertension often have the lowest rates of blood pressure (BP) control in clinical settings. It is unknown to what extent variation in health care processes explains this disparity. <h3>Objective</h3> To assess whether and to what extent treatment intensification, scheduled follow-up interval, and missed visits are associated with racial and ethnic disparities in BP control. <h3>Design, Setting, and Participants</h3> In this cohort study, nested logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of BP control (defined as a systolic BP [SBP] level &lt;140 mm Hg) by race and ethnicity, and a structural equation model was used to assess the association of treatment intensification, scheduled follow-up interval, and missed visits with racial and ethnic disparities in BP control. The study included 16 114 adults aged 20 years or older with hypertension and elevated BP (defined as an SBP level ≥140 mm Hg) during at least 1 clinic visit between January 1, 2015, and November 15, 2017. A total of 11 safety-net clinics within the San Francisco Health Network participated in the study. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to October 2020. <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> Blood pressure control was assessed using the patient’s most recent BP measurement as of November 15, 2017. Treatment intensification was calculated using the standard-based method, scored on a scale from −1.0 to 1.0, with −1.0 being the least amount of intensification and 1.0 being the most. Scheduled follow-up interval was defined as the mean number of days to the next scheduled visit after an elevated BP measurement. Missed visits measured the number of patients who did not show up for visits during the 4 weeks after an elevated BP measurement. <h3>Results</h3> Among 16 114 adults with hypertension, the mean (SD) age was 58.6 (12.1) years, and 8098 patients (50.3%) were female. A total of 4658 patients (28.9%) were Asian, 3743 (23.2%) were Black, 3694 (22.9%) were Latinx, 2906 (18.0%) were White, and 1113 (6.9%) were of other races or ethnicities (including American Indian or Alaska Native [77 patients (0.4%)], Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander [217 patients (1.3%)], and unknown [819 patients (5.1%)]). Compared with patients from all racial and ethnic groups, Black patients had lower treatment intensification scores (mean [SD], −0.33 [0.26] vs −0.29 [0.25]; β = −0.03,<i>P</i> &lt; .001) and missed more visits (mean [SD], 0.8 [1.5] visits vs 0.4 [1.1] visits; β = 0.35;<i>P</i> &lt; .001). In contrast, Asian patients had higher treatment intensification scores (mean [SD], −0.26 [0.23]; β = 0.02;<i>P</i> &lt; .001) and fewer missed visits (mean [SD], 0.2 [0.7] visits; β = −0.20;<i>P</i> &lt; .001). Black patients were less likely (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75-0.89;<i>P</i> &lt; .001) and Asian patients were more likely (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.25;<i>P</i> &lt; .001) to achieve BP control than patients from all racial or ethnic groups. Treatment intensification and missed visits accounted for 21% and 14%, respectively, of the total difference in BP control among Black patients and 26% and 13% of the difference among Asian patients. <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> This study’s findings suggest that racial and ethnic inequities in treatment intensification may be associated with more than 20% of observed racial or ethnic disparities in BP control, and racial and ethnic differences in visit attendance may also play a role. Ensuring more equitable provision of treatment intensification could be a beneficial health care strategy to reduce racial and ethnic disparities in BP control.

Racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States have increased rates of diabetes compared with White populations. The 2021 guidelines from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommend diabetes screening for adults aged 35 to 70 years with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater.To determine the BMI threshold for diabetes screening in major racial/ethnic minority populations with benefits and harms equivalent to those of the current diabetes screening threshold in White adults.Cross-sectional study.NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 2011 to 2018.Nonpregnant U.S. adults aged 18 to 70 years (n = 19 335).A logistic regression model was used to estimate diabetes prevalence at various BMIs for White, Asian, Black, and Hispanic Americans. For each racial/ethnic minority group, the equivalent BMI threshold was defined as the BMI at which the prevalence of diabetes in 35-year-old persons in that group is equal to that in 35-year-old White adults at a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Ranges were estimated to account for the uncertainty in prevalence estimates for White and racial/ethnic minority populations.Among adults aged 35 years with a BMI of 25 kg/m2, the prevalence of diabetes in Asian Americans (3.8% [95% CI, 2.8% to 5.1%]), Black Americans (3.5% [CI, 2.7% to 4.7%]), and Hispanic Americans (3.0% [CI, 2.1% to 4.2%]) was significantly higher than that in White Americans (1.4% [CI, 1.0% to 2.0%]). Compared with a BMI threshold of 25 kg/m2 in White Americans, the equivalent BMI thresholds for diabetes prevalence were 20 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 23 kg/m2) for Asian Americans, less than 18.5 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 23 kg/m2) for Black Americans, and 18.5 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 24 kg/m2) for Hispanic Americans.Sample size limitations precluded assessment of heterogeneity within racial/ethnic groups.Among U.S. adults aged 35 years or older, offering diabetes screening to Black Americans and Hispanic Americans with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 or greater and Asian Americans with a BMI of 20 kg/m2 or greater would be equivalent to screening White adults with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or greater. Using screening thresholds specific to race/ethnicity has the potential to reduce disparities in diabetes diagnosis.Richard A. and Susan F. Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology.

<h2>Summary</h2><h3>Background</h3> During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, workers in essential sectors had higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than those in non-essential sectors. It is unknown whether disparities in pandemic-related mortality across occupational sectors have continued to occur during the periods of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine availability. <h3>Methods</h3> In this longitudinal cohort study, we obtained data from the California Department of Public Health on all deaths occurring in the state of California, USA, from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. We restricted our analysis to residents of California who were aged 18–65 years at time of death and died of natural causes. We classified the occupational sector into nine essential sectors; non-essential; or unemployed or without an occupation provided on the death certificate. We calculated the number of COVID-19 deaths in total and per capita that occurred in each occupational sector. Separately, using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we estimated total, per-capita, and relative excess natural-cause mortality by week between March 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2021, stratifying by occupational sector. We additionally stratified analyses of occupational risk into counties with high versus low vaccine uptake, categorising high-uptake regions as counties where at least 50% of the population were fully vaccinated according to US guidelines by Aug 1, 2021. <h3>Findings</h3> From March 1, 2020, to Nov 30, 2021, 24 799 COVID-19 deaths were reported in residents of California aged 18–65 years and an estimated 28 751 (95% prediction interval 27 853–29 653) excess deaths. People working in essential sectors were associated with higher COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths than were those working in non-essential sectors, with the highest per-capita COVID-19 mortality in the agriculture (131·8 per 100 000 people), transportation or logistics (107·1 per 100 000), manufacturing (103·3 per 100 000), facilities (101·1 per 100 000), and emergency (87·8 per 100 000) sectors. Disparities were wider during periods of increased infections, including during the Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021, surge in infections, which was driven by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) and occurred during vaccine uptake. During the June 27 to Nov 27, 2021 surge, emergency workers had higher COVID-19 mortality (113·7 per 100 000) than workers from any other sector. Workers in essential sectors had the highest COVID-19 mortality in counties with low vaccination uptake, a difference that was more pronounced during the period of the delta infection surge during Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021. <h3>Interpretation</h3> Workers in essential sectors have continued to bear the brunt of high COVID-19 and excess mortality throughout the pandemic, particularly in the agriculture, emergency, manufacturing, facilities, and transportation or logistics sectors. This high death toll has continued during periods of vaccine availability and the delta surge. In an ongoing pandemic without widespread vaccine coverage and with anticipated threats of new variants, the USA must actively adopt policies to more adequately protect workers in essential sectors. <h3>Funding</h3> US National Institute on Aging, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

The transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) in health care has been forecast for decades, 1 but only recently have technological advances appeared to capture some of the complexity of health and disease and how health care is delivered. 2ecent emergence of large language models (LLMs) in highly visible and interactive applications 3 has ignited interest in how new AI technologies can improve medicine and health for patients, the public, clinicians, health systems, and more.The rapidity of these developments, their potential impact on health care, and JAMA's mission to publish the best science that advances medicine and public health compel the journal to renew its commitment to facilitating the rigorous scientific development, evaluation, and implementation of AI in health care.JAMA editors are committed to promoting discoveries in AI science, rigorously evaluating new advances for their impact on the health of patients and populations, assessing the value such advances bring to health systems and society nationally and globally, and examining progress toward equity, fairness, and the reduction of historical medical bias.Moreover, JAMA's mission is to ensure that these scientific advances are clearly communicated in a manner that enhances the collective understanding of the domain for all stakeholders in medicine and public health. 4For scientific development of AI to be most effective for improving medicine and public health requires a platform that recognizes and supports the vision of rapid cycle innovation and is also fundamentally grounded in the principles of reliable and reproducible clinical research that is ethically sound, respectful of rights to privacy, and representative of diverse populations. 2,3,5he scientific development in AI can be viewed through the framework used to describe other health-related sciences. 6n these domains, scientific discoveries begin with identifying biological mechanisms of disease.Then inventions that target these mechanisms are tested in progressively larger groups of people with and without diseases to assess the effectiveness and safety of these interventions.These are then scaled to large studies evaluating outcomes for individuals and populations with the disease.This well-established scientific development framework can work for research in AI as well, with reportable stages as inventions and findings move from one stage to the next.The editors seek original science that focuses on developing, testing, and deploying AI in studies that improve under-

Alison Galbraith, MD, MPH; Annette Flanagin, RN, MA; Aaron E. Carroll, MD, MS; John Z. Ayanian, MD, MPP; Robert O. Bonow, MD, MS; Neil Bressler, MD; Dimitri Christakis, MD, MPH; Mary L. (Nora) Disis, MD; Sharon K. Inouye, MD, MPH; Andrew Josephson, MD; Dost Öngür, MD, PhD; Jay F. Piccirillo, MD; Kanade Shinkai, MD, PhD; Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MAS

The study purpose was to evaluate the ability of 6 biomarkers to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events among persons with established coronary artery disease.Cardiovascular risk algorithms are designed to predict the initial onset of coronary artery disease but are less effective in persons with preexisting coronary artery disease.We examined the association of N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP), cystatin C, albuminuria, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6, and fibrinogen with cardiovascular events in 979 Heart and Soul Study participants with coronary artery disease after adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and behavior variables; cardiovascular risk factors; cardiovascular disease severity; medication use; and left ventricular ejection fraction. The outcome was a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, and coronary heart disease death during an average of 3.5 years of follow-up.During follow-up, 142 participants (15%) developed cardiovascular events. The highest quartiles (vs lower 3 quartiles) of 5 biomarkers were individually associated with cardiovascular risk after multivariate analysis: Nt-proBNP hazard ratio (HR)=2.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-3.18); cystatin C HR=1.72 (95% CI, 1.10-2.70); albuminuria HR=1.71 (95% CI, 1.15-2.54); CRP HR=2.00 (95% CI, 1.40-2.85); and interleukin-6 HR=1.76 (95% CI, 1.22-2.53). When all biomarkers were included in the multivariable analysis, only Nt-proBNP, albuminuria, and CRP remained significant predictors of events: HR=1.88 (95% CI, 1.23-2.85), HR=1.63 (95% CI, 1.09-2.43), and HR=1.82 (95% CI, 1.24-2.67), respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve for clinical predictors alone was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.78); adding Nt-proBNP, albuminuria, and CRP significantly increased the area under the receiver operator curve to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82, P<.005).Among persons with prevalent coronary artery disease, biomarkers reflecting hemodynamic stress, kidney damage, and inflammation added significant risk discrimination for cardiovascular events.

Standardized means to identify patients likely to benefit from language assistance are needed.To evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Census English proficiency question (Census-LEP) in predicting patients' ability to communicate effectively in English.We investigated the sensitivity and specificity of the Census-LEP alone or in combination with a question on preferred language for medical care for predicting patient-reported ability to discuss symptoms and understand physician recommendations in English.Three hundred and two patients > 18 who spoke Spanish and/or English recruited from a cardiology clinic and an inpatient general medical-surgical ward in 2004-2005.One hundred ninety-eight (66%) participants reported speaking English less than "very well" and 166 (55%) less than "well"; 157 (52%) preferred receiving their medical care in Spanish. Overall, 135 (45%) were able to discuss symptoms and 143 (48%) to understand physician recommendations in English. The Census-LEP with a high-threshold (less than "very well") had the highest sensitivity for predicting effective communication (100% Discuss; 98.7% Understand), but the lowest specificity (72.6% Discuss; 67.1% Understand). The composite measure of Census-LEP and preferred language for medical care provided a significant increase in specificity (91.9% Discuss; 83.9% Understand), with only a marginal decrease in sensitivity (99.4% Discuss; 96.7% Understand).Using the Census-LEP item with a high-threshold of less than "very well" as a screening question, followed by a language preference for medical care question, is recommended for inclusive and accurate identification of patients likely to benefit from language assistance.

We predicted the future economic burden attributable to high rates of current adolescent overweight.We constructed models to simulate the costs of excess obesity and associated diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) among adults aged 35-64 years in the US population in 2020 to 2050.Current adolescent overweight is projected to result in 161 million life-years complicated by obesity, diabetes, or CHD and 1.5 million life-years lost. The cumulative excess attributable total costs are estimated at $254 billion: $208 billion because of lost productivity from earlier death or morbidity and $46 billion from direct medical costs. Currently available therapies for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, used according to guidelines, if applied in the future, would result in modest reductions in excess mortality (decreased to 1.1 million life-years lost) but increase total excess costs by another $7 billion (increased to $261 billion total).Current adolescent overweight will likely lead to large future economic and health burdens, especially lost productivity from premature death and disability. Application of currently available medical treatments will not greatly reduce these future burdens of increased adult obesity.