Isabelle Soerjomataram

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Abstract This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high‐quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence‐based cancer control programs, are not available in most low‐ and middle‐income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1‐31. © 2018 American Cancer Society

DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660

2021

Cited 56,368 times

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries

Abstract This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2‐fold to 3‐fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2‐fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29210

2014

Cited 23,906 times

Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: Sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 major cancers and for all cancers combined for 2012 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We review the sources and methods used in compiling the national cancer incidence and mortality estimates, and briefly describe the key results by cancer site and in 20 large "areas" of the world. Overall, there were 14.1 million new cases and 8.2 million deaths in 2012. The most commonly diagnosed cancers were lung (1.82 million), breast (1.67 million), and colorectal (1.36 million); the most common causes of cancer death were lung cancer (1.6 million deaths), liver cancer (745,000 deaths), and stomach cancer (723,000 deaths).

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31937

2018

Cited 5,356 times

Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 36 cancers and for all cancers combined for the year 2018 are now available in the GLOBOCAN 2018 database, compiled and disseminated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This paper reviews the sources and methods used in compiling the cancer statistics in 185 countries. The validity of the national estimates depends upon the representativeness of the source information, and to take into account possible sources of bias, uncertainty intervals are now provided for the estimated sex- and site-specific all-ages number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths. We briefly describe the key results globally and by world region. There were an estimated 18.1 million (95% UI: 17.5-18.7 million) new cases of cancer (17 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million (95% UI: 9.3-9.8 million) deaths from cancer (9.5 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2018.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2015-310912

2016

Cited 3,534 times

Global patterns and trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality

<h3>Objective</h3> The global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to increase by 60% to more than 2.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths by 2030. In this study, we aim to describe the recent CRC incidence and mortality patterns and trends linking the findings to the prospects of reducing the burden through cancer prevention and care. <h3>Design</h3> Estimates of sex-specific CRC incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 37 countries using data from <i>Cancer Incidence in Five Continents</i> (CI5) volumes I–X and the WHO mortality database. Trends were assessed via the annual percentage change using joinpoint regression and discussed in relation to human development levels. <h3>Results</h3> CRC incidence and mortality rates vary up to 10-fold worldwide, with distinct gradients across human development levels, pointing towards widening disparities and an increasing burden in countries in transition. Generally, CRC incidence and mortality rates are still rising rapidly in many low-income and middle-income countries; stabilising or decreasing trends tend to be seen in highly developed countries where rates remain among the highest in the world. <h3>Conclusions</h3> Patterns and trends in CRC incidence and mortality correlate with present human development levels and their incremental changes might reflect the adoption of more western lifestyles. Targeted resource-dependent interventions, including primary prevention in low-income, supplemented with early detection in high-income settings, are needed to reduce the number of patients with CRC in future decades.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33588

2021

Cited 2,607 times

Cancer statistics for the year 2020: An overview

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-85851-2

1970

Cited 2,409 times

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents

In 1966, following the Ninth International Cancer Congress in Tokyo, the Commission on Epidemiology and Prevention of the International Union against Cancer formed a new Committee on Cancer Incidence.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2016.06.010

2017

Cited 1,846 times

Bladder Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A Global Overview and Recent Trends

Bladder cancer has become a common cancer globally, with an estimated 430 000 new cases diagnosed in 2012. We examine the most recent global bladder cancer incidence and mortality patterns and trends, the current understanding of the aetiology of the disease, and specific issues that may influence the registration and reporting of bladder cancer. Global bladder cancer incidence and mortality statistics are based on data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the World Health Organisation (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, GLOBOCAN, and the World Health Organisation Mortality). Bladder cancer ranks as the ninth most frequently-diagnosed cancer worldwide, with the highest incidence rates observed in men in Southern and Western Europe, North America, as well in certain countries in Northern Africa or Western Asia. Incidence rates are consistently lower in women than men, although sex differences varied greatly between countries. Diverging incidence trends were also observed by sex in many countries, with stabilising or declining rates in men but some increasing trends seen for women. Bladder cancer ranks 13th in terms of deaths ranks, with mortality rates decreasing particularly in the most developed countries; the exceptions are countries undergoing rapid economic transition, including in Central and South America, some central, southern, and eastern European countries, and the Baltic countries. The observed patterns and trends of bladder cancer incidence worldwide appear to reflect the prevalence of tobacco smoking, although infection with Schistosoma haematobium and other risk factors are major causes in selected populations. Differences in coding and registration practices need to be considered when comparing bladder cancer statistics geographically or over time. The main risk factor for bladder cancer is tobacco smoking. The observed patterns and trends of bladder cancer incidence worldwide appear to reflect the prevalence of tobacco smoking.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2018.07.005

2018

Cited 1,784 times

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries and 25 major cancers in 2018

Europe contains 9% of the world population but has a 25% share of the global cancer burden. Up-to-date cancer statistics in Europe are key to cancer planning. Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 25 major cancers are presented for the 40 countries in the four United Nations-defined areas of Europe and for Europe and the European Union (EU-28) for 2018.Estimates of national incidence and mortality rates for 2018 were based on statistical models applied to the most recently published data, with predictions obtained from recent trends, where possible. The estimated rates in 2018 were applied to the 2018 population estimates to obtain the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in Europe in 2018.There were an estimated 3.91 million new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 1.93 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2018. The most common cancer sites were cancers of the female breast (523,000 cases), followed by colorectal (500,000), lung (470,000) and prostate cancer (450,000). These four cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Europe. The most common causes of death from cancer were cancers of the lung (388,000 deaths), colorectal (243,000), breast (138,000) and pancreatic cancer (128,000). In the EU-28, the estimated number of new cases of cancer was approximately 1.6 million in males and 1.4 million in females, with 790,000 men and 620,000 women dying from the disease in the same year.The present estimates of the cancer burden in Europe alongside a description of the profiles of common cancers at the national and regional level provide a basis for establishing priorities for cancer control actions across Europe. The estimates presented here are based on the recorded data from 145 population-based cancer registries in Europe. Their long established role in planning and evaluating national cancer plans on the continent should not be undervalued.

DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.07.055

2012

Cited 1,300 times

Global Burden of Human Papillomavirus and Related Diseases

The worldwide prevalence of infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) in women without cervical abnormalities is 11–12% with higher rates in sub-Saharan Africa (24%), Eastern Europe (21%) and Latin America (16%). The two most prevalent types are HPV16 (3.2%) and HPV18 (1.4%). Prevalence increases in women with cervical pathology in proportion to the severity of the lesion reaching around 90% in women with grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and invasive cancer. HPV infection has been identified as a definite human carcinogen for six types of cancer: cervix, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx (including the base of the tongue and tonsils). Estimates of the incidence of these cancers for 2008 due to HPV infection have been calculated globally. Of the estimated 12.7 million cancers occurring in 2008, 610,000 (Population Attributable Fraction [PAF] = 4.8%) could be attributed to HPV infection. The PAF varies substantially by geographic region and level of development, increasing to 6.9% in less developed regions of the world, 14.2% in sub-Saharan Africa and 15.5% in India, compared with 2.1% in more developed regions, 1.6% in Northern America and 1.2% in Australia/New Zealand. Cervical cancer, for which the PAF is estimated to be 100%, accounted for 530,000 (86.9%) of the HPV attributable cases with the other five cancer types accounting for the residual 80,000 cancers. Cervical cancer is the third most common female malignancy and shows a strong association with level of development, rates being at least four-fold higher in countries defined within the low ranking of the Human Development Index (HDI) compared with those in the very high category. Similar disparities are evident for 5-year survival—less than 20% in low HDI countries and more than 65% in very high countries. There are five-fold or greater differences in incidence between world regions. In those countries for which reliable temporal data are available, incidence rates appear to be consistently declining by approximately 2% per annum. There is, however, a lack of information from low HDI countries where screening is less likely to have been successfully implemented. Estimates of the projected incidence of cervical cancer in 2030, based solely on demographic factors, indicate a 2% increase in the global burden of cervical cancer, i.e., in balance with the current rate of decline. Due to the relative small numbers involved, it is difficult to discern temporal trends for the other cancers associated with HPV infection. Genital warts represent a sexually transmitted benign condition caused by HPV infection, especially HPV6 and HPV11. Reliable surveillance figures are difficult to obtain but data from developed countries indicate an annual incidence of 0.1 to 0.2% with a peak occurring at teenage and young adult ages. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled “Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases” Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2014-308124

2014

Cited 1,104 times

Global incidence of oesophageal cancer by histological subtype in 2012

<h3>Objective</h3> The two major histological types of oesophageal cancer—adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)—are known to differ greatly in terms of risk factors and epidemiology. To date, global incidence estimates for individual subtypes are still lacking. This study for the first time quantified the global burden of oesophageal cancer by histological subtype. <h3>Design</h3> Where available, data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol. X (CI5X) were used to compute, age-specific, sex-specific and country-specific proportions of AC and SCC. Nine regional averages were computed for countries without CI5X data. The proportions were then applied to all oesophageal cancer cases from GLOBOCAN 2012 and age-standardised incidence rates calculated for both histological types. <h3>Results</h3> Worldwide, an estimated 398 000 SCCs and 52 000 ACs of the oesophagus occurred in 2012, translating to incidence rates of 5.2 and 0.7 per 100 000, respectively. Although SCCs were most common in South-Eastern and Central Asia (79% of the total global SCC cases), the highest burden of AC was found in Northern and Western Europe, Northern America and Oceania (46% of the total global AC cases). Men had substantially higher incidence than women, especially in the case of AC (male to female ratio AC: 4.4; SCC: 2.7). <h3>Conclusions</h3> These first global estimates of oesophageal cancer incidence by histology suggested a high concentration of AC in high-income countries with men being at much greater risk. This quantification of incidence will aid health policy makers to plan appropriate cancer control measures in the future.

DOI: 10.1002/cncr.33587

2021

Cited 1,019 times

The ever‐increasing importance of cancer as a leading cause of premature death worldwide

The relative importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer as leading causes of premature death are examined in this communication. CVD and cancer are now the leading causes in 127 countries, with CVD leading in 70 countries (including Brazil and India) and cancer leading in 57 countries (including China). Such observations can be seen as part of a late phase of an epidemiologic transition, taking place in the second half of the 20th century and the first half of the present one, in which the dominance of infectious diseases is progressively superseded by noncommunicable diseases. According to present ranks and recent trends, cancer may surpass CVD as the leading cause of premature death in most countries over the course of this century. Clearly, governments must factor in these transitions in developing cancer policies for the local disease profile.

DOI: 10.3322/caac.21440

2017

Cited 991 times

Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States

Contemporary information on the fraction of cancers that potentially could be prevented is useful for priority setting in cancer prevention and control. Herein, the authors estimate the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases and deaths, overall (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and for 26 cancer types, in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States in 2014, that were attributable to major, potentially modifiable exposures (cigarette smoking; secondhand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol intake; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits/vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and 6 cancer-associated infections). The numbers of cancer cases were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute; the numbers of deaths were obtained from the CDC; risk factor prevalence estimates were obtained from nationally representative surveys; and associated relative risks of cancer were obtained from published, large-scale pooled analyses or meta-analyses. In the United States in 2014, an estimated 42.0% of all incident cancers (659,640 of 1570,975 cancers, excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 45.1% of cancer deaths (265,150 of 587,521 deaths) were attributable to evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking accounted for the highest proportion of cancer cases (19.0%; 298,970 cases) and deaths (28.8%; 169,180 deaths), followed by excess body weight (7.8% and 6.5%, respectively) and alcohol intake (5.6% and 4.0%, respectively). Lung cancer had the highest number of cancers (184,970 cases) and deaths (132,960 deaths) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by colorectal cancer (76,910 cases and 28,290 deaths). These results, however, may underestimate the overall proportion of cancers attributable to modifiable factors, because the impact of all established risk factors could not be quantified, and many likely modifiable risk factors are not yet firmly established as causal. Nevertheless, these findings underscore the vast potential for reducing cancer morbidity and mortality through broad and equitable implementation of known preventive measures. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:31-54. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(14)71123-4

2015

Cited 710 times

Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study

High body-mass index (BMI; defined as 25 kg/m(2) or greater) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policy and future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to high BMI in 2012.In this population-based study, we derived population attributable fractions (PAFs) using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex, and country. Assuming a 10-year lag-period between high BMI and cancer occurrence, we calculated PAFs using BMI estimates from 2002 and used GLOBOCAN2012 data to estimate numbers of new cancer cases attributable to high BMI. We also calculated the proportion of cancers that were potentially avoidable had populations maintained their mean BMIs recorded in 1982. We did secondary analyses to test the model and to estimate the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use and smoking.Worldwide, we estimate that 481,000 or 3.6% of all new cancer cases in adults (aged 30 years and older after the 10-year lag period) in 2012 were attributable to high BMI. PAFs were greater in women than in men (5.4% vs 1.9%). The burden of attributable cases was higher in countries with very high and high human development indices (HDIs; PAF 5.3% and 4.8%, respectively) than in those with moderate (1.6%) and low HDIs (1.0%). Corpus uteri, postmenopausal breast, and colon cancers accounted for 63.6% of cancers attributable to high BMI. A quarter (about 118,000) of the cancer cases related to high BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the increase in BMI since 1982.These findings emphasise the need for a global effort to abate the increasing numbers of people with high BMI. Assuming that the association between high BMI and cancer is causal, the continuation of current patterns of population weight gain will lead to continuing increases in the future burden of cancer.World Cancer Research Fund International, European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship), Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and US National Institutes of Health.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2019.08.005

2020

Cited 699 times

Recent Global Patterns in Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates

Previous studies have reported significant variation in prostate cancer rates and trends mainly due to differences in detection practices, availability of treatment, and underlying genetic susceptibility.To assess recent worldwide prostate cancer incidence, mortality rates, and trends using up-to-date incidence and mortality data.We present estimated age-standardized prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates by country and world regions for 2018 based on the GLOBOCAN database. We also examined rates and temporal trends for incidence (44 countries) and mortality (76 countries) based on data series from population-based registries.The highest estimated incidence rates were found in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, Western and Northern Europe, and the Caribbean, and the lowest rates were found in South-Central Asia, Northern Africa, and South-Eastern and Eastern Asia. The highest estimated mortality rates were found in the Caribbean (Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, and Cuba), sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa), parts of former Soviet Union (Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia), whereas the lowest rates were found in Asia (Thailand and Turkmenistan). Prostate cancer incidence rates during the most recent 5 yr declined (five countries) or stabilized (35 countries), after increasing for many years; in contrast, rates continued to increase for four countries in Eastern Europe and Asia. During the most recent 5 data years, mortality rates among the 76 countries examined increased (three countries), remained stable (59 countries), or decreased (14 countries).As evident from available data, prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates have been on the decline or have stabilized recently in many countries, with decreases more pronounced in high-income countries. These trends may reflect a decline in prostate-specific antigen testing (incidence) and improvements in treatment (mortality).We examined recent trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in 44 and 76 countries, respectively, and found that rates in most countries stabilized or decreased.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2007.12.015

2008

Cited 686 times

Recent trends of cancer in Europe: A combined approach of incidence, survival and mortality for 17 cancer sites since the 1990s

We present a comprehensive overview of most recent European trends in population-based incidence of, mortality from and relative survival for patients with cancer since the mid 1990s.Data on incidence, mortality and 5-year relative survival from the mid 1990s to early 2000 for the cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, stomach, colorectum, pancreas, larynx, lung, skin melanoma, breast, cervix, corpus uteri, ovary, prostate, testis, kidney, bladder, and Hodgkin's disease were obtained from cancer registries from 21 European countries. Estimated annual percentages change in incidence and mortality were calculated. Survival trends were analyzed by calculating the relative difference in 5-year relative survival between 1990-1994 and 2000-2002 using data from EUROCARE-3 and -4.Trends in incidence were generally favorable in the more prosperous countries from Northern and Western Europe, except for obesity related cancers. Whereas incidence of and mortality from tobacco-related cancers decreased for males in Northern, Western and Southern Europe, they increased for both sexes in Central Europe and for females nearly everywhere in Europe. Survival rates generally improved, mostly due to better access to specialized diagnostics, staging and treatment. Marked effects of organised or opportunistic screening became visible for breast, prostate and melanoma in the wealthier countries. Mortality trends were generally favourable, except for smoking related cancers.Cancer prevention and management in Europe is moving in the right direction. Survival increased and mortality decreased through the combination of earlier detection, better access to care and improved treatment. Still, cancer prevention efforts have much to attain, especially in the domain of female smoking prevalence and the emerging obesity epidemic.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(19)30456-5

2019

Cited 663 times

Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995–2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study

<h2>Summary</h2><h3>Background</h3> Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends. <h3>Methods</h3> In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control. <h3>Findings</h3> In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995–2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010–14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer. <h3>Interpretation</h3> The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival. <h3>Funding</h3> Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

DOI: 10.1016/j.breast.2022.08.010

2022

Cited 650 times

Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040

<h2>Abstract</h2><h3>Background</h3> Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. <h3>Methods</h3> Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. <h3>Results</h3> Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. <h3>Conclusion</h3> Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.

DOI: 10.3322/caac.21384

2016

Cited 519 times

The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite in 2012

By using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer publication Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents and GLOBOCAN, this report provides the first consolidated global estimation of the subsite distribution of new cases of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by country, sex, and age for the year 2012. Major geographically based, sex-based, and age-based variations in the incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite were observed. Lip cancers were highly frequent in Australia (associated with solar radiation) and in central and eastern Europe (associated with tobacco smoking). Cancers of the oral cavity and hypopharynx were highly common in south-central Asia, especially in India (associated with smokeless tobacco, bidi, and betel-quid use). Rates of oropharyngeal cancers were elevated in northern America and Europe, notably in Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and France and were associated with alcohol use, tobacco smoking, and human papillomavirus infection. Nasopharyngeal cancers were most common in northern Africa and eastern/southeast Asia, indicative of genetic susceptibility combined with Epstein-Barr virus infection and early life carcinogenic exposures (nitrosamines and salted foods). The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers of 529,500, corresponding to 3.8% of all cancer cases, is predicted to rise by 62% to 856,000 cases by 2035 because of changes in demographics. Given the rising incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers and the variations in incidence by subsites across world regions and countries, there is a need for local, tailored approaches to prevention, screening, and treatment interventions that will optimally reduce the lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancer burden in future decades. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:51-64. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60919-2

2012

Cited 513 times

Global burden of cancer in 2008: a systematic analysis of disability-adjusted life-years in 12 world regions

Background Country comparisons that consider the effect of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes are needed for health-care planning. We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to estimate the global burden of cancer in 2008. Methods We used population-based data, mostly from cancer registries, for incidence, mortality, life expectancy, disease duration, and age at onset and death, alongside proportions of patients who were treated and living with sequelae or regarded as cured, to calculate years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). We used YLLs and YLDs to derive DALYs for 27 sites of cancers in 184 countries in 12 world regions. Estimates were grouped into four categories based on a country's human development index (HDI). We applied zero discounting and uniform age weighting, and age-standardised rates to enable cross-country and regional comparisons. Findings Worldwide, an estimated 169·3 million years of healthy life were lost because of cancer in 2008. Colorectal, lung, breast, and prostate cancers were the main contributors to total DALYs in most world regions and caused 18–50% of the total cancer burden. We estimated an additional burden of 25% from infection-related cancers (liver, stomach, and cervical) in sub-Saharan Africa, and 27% in eastern Asia. We noted substantial global differences in the cancer profile of DALYs by country and region; however, YLLs were the most important component of DALYs in all countries and for all cancers, and contributed to more than 90% of the total burden. Nonetheless, low-resource settings had consistently higher YLLs (as a proportion of total DALYs) than did high-resource settings. Interpretation Age-adjusted DALYs lost from cancer are substantial, irrespective of world region. The consistently larger proportions of YLLs in low HDI than in high HDI countries indicate substantial inequalities in prognosis after diagnosis, related to degree of human development. Therefore, radical improvement in cancer care is needed in low-resource countries. Funding Dutch Scientific Society, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and International Agency for research on Cancer.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2022.08.021

2022

Cited 447 times

Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040

The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040.We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040.In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2-3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020).Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised.The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-319511

2019

Cited 444 times

Global patterns and trends in colorectal cancer incidence in young adults

Objective Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in the USA despite rapid declines in older ages. Similar patterns are reported in Australia and Canada, but a comprehensive global analysis of contemporary data is lacking. Design We extracted long-term data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and supplemental sources to report on worldwide CRC incidence rates and trends by age (20–49 years and ≥50 years) through diagnosis year 2012 or beyond (Australia, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, USA). Results During 2008–2012, age-standardised CRC incidence rates in adults <50 ranged from 3.5 per 100 000 (95% CI 3.2 to 3.9) in India (Chennai) to 12.9 (95% CI 12.6 to 13.3) in Korea. During the most recent decade of available data, incidence in adults <50 was stable in 14 of 36 countries; declined in Austria, Italy and Lithuania; and increased in 19 countries, nine of which had stable or declining trends in older adults (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, New Zealand, Slovenia, Sweden, UK and USA). In Cyprus, Netherlands and Norway, inclines in incidence in young adults were twice as rapid as those in older adults (eg, Norway average annual per cent change (AAPC), 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.5) vs 0.5 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.7)). Among most high-income countries with long-term data, the uptick in early-onset disease began in the mid-1990s. The steepest increases in young adults were in Korea (AAPC, 4.2 (95% CI 3.4 to 5.0)) and New Zealand (AAPC, 4.0 (95% CI 2.1 to 6.0)). Conclusion CRC incidence increased exclusively in young adults in nine high-income countries spanning three continents, potentially signalling changes in early-life exposures that influence large bowel carcinogenesis.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29670

2015

Cited 430 times

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents: Inclusion criteria, highlights from Volume X and the global status of cancer registration

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), a longstanding collaboration between the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the International Association of Cancer Registries, serves as a unique source of cancer incidence data from high‐quality population‐based cancer registries around the world. The recent publication of Volume X comprises cancer incidence data from 290 registries covering 424 populations in 68 countries for the registration period 2003–2007. In this article, we assess the status of population‐based cancer registries worldwide, describe the techniques used in CI5 to evaluate their quality and highlight the notable variation in the incidence rates of selected cancers contained within Volume X of CI5. We also discuss the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development as an international partnership that aims to reduce the disparities in availability of cancer incidence data for cancer control action, particularly in economically transitioning countries, already experiencing a rapid rise in the number of cancer patients annually.

DOI: 10.1007/s10549-007-9556-1

2007

Cited 421 times

An overview of prognostic factors for long-term survivors of breast cancer

Numerous studies have examined prognostic factors for survival of breast cancer patients, but relatively few have dealt specifically with 10+-year survivors.A review of the PubMed database from 1995 to 2006 was undertaken with the following inclusion criteria: median/mean follow-up time at least 10 years; overall survival and/or disease-specific survival known; and relative risk and statistical probability values reported. In addition, we used data from the long-standing Eindhoven Cancer Registry to illustrate survival probability as indicated by various prognostic factors.10-year breast cancer survivors showed 90% 5-year relative survival. Tumor size, nodal status and grade remained the most important prognostic factors for long-term survival, although their role decreased over time. Most studies agreed on the long-term prognostic values of MI (mitotic index), LVI (lymphovascular invasion), Her2-positivity, gene profiling and comorbidity for either all or a subgroup of breast cancer patients (node-positive or negative). The roles of age, socioeconomic status, histological type, BRCA and p53 mutation were mixed, often decreasing after correction for stronger prognosticators, thus limiting their clinical value. Local and regional recurrence, metastases and second cancer may substantially impair long-term survival. Healthy lifestyle was consistently related to lower overall mortality.Effects of traditional prognostic factors persist in the long term and more recent factors need further follow-up. The prognosis for breast cancer patients who have survived at least 10 years is favourable and increases over time. Improved long-term survival can be achieved by earlier detection, more effective modern therapy and healthier lifestyle.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31664

2018

Cited 409 times

Global cancer incidence in older adults, 2012 and 2035: A population‐based study

Population ageing has substantially contributed to the rising number of new cancer cases worldwide. We document cancer incidence patterns in 2012 among older adults globally, and examine the changing magnitude of cancer in this age group over the next decades. Using GLOBOCAN 2012 data, we presented the number and proportion of new cancer cases, and the truncated age‐standardised incidence rates among adults aged 65 years and older for all cancer sites combined and for the five most common cancer sites by world region. We calculated the incidence in 2035 by applying population projections, assuming no changes in rates. In 2012, 6.7 million new cancer cases (47.5% of all cancers) were diagnosed among older adults worldwide, with marked regional disparities. Nearly 48% of these cases occurred in less developed regions. Lung, colorectal, prostate, stomach and breast cancers represented 55% of the global incidence, yet distinct regional patterns were observed. We predict 14 million new cancer cases by 2035, representing almost 60% of the global cancer incidence. The largest relative increase in incidence is predicted in the Middle East and Northern Africa (+157%), and in China (+155%). Less developed regions will see an increase of new cases by 144%, compared to 54% in more developed regions. The expected increase in cancer incidence at older ages will have substantial economic and social impacts globally, posing considerable and unique challenge to healthcare systems in every world region, especially in those with limited resources and weaker health systems.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2013.09.002

2015

Cited 407 times

Recent trends in incidence of five common cancers in 26 European countries since 1988: Analysis of the European Cancer Observatory

Individual country- and cancer site-specific studies suggest that the age-adjusted incidence of many common cancers has increased in European populations over the past two decades. To quantify the extent of these trends and the recent burden of cancer, here we present a comprehensive overview of trends in population-based incidence of the five common cancers across Europe derived from a new web-based portal of the European cancer registries.Data on incidence for cancers of the colon and rectum, prostate, breast, corpus uteri and stomach diagnosed from 1988 to 2008 were obtained from the European Cancer Observatory for cancer registries from 26 countries. Annual age-standardised incidence rates and average annual percentage changes were calculated.Incidence of four common cancers in eastern and central European countries (prostate, postmenopausal breast, corpus uteri and colorectum) started to approach levels in northern and western Europe, where rates were already high in the past but levelled off in some countries in recent years. Decreases in stomach cancer incidence were seen in all countries.Increasing trends in incidence of the most common cancers, except stomach cancer, are bad news to public health but can largely be explained by well-known changes in society in the past decades. Thus, current and future efforts in primary cancer prevention should not only remain focussed on the further reduction of smoking but engage in the long-term efforts to retain healthy lifestyles, especially avoiding excess weight through balanced diets and regular physical exercise.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(17)30677-0

2017

Cited 394 times

Cancer incidence and mortality among young adults aged 20–39 years worldwide in 2012: a population-based study

BackgroundTo date, the burden of cancer among young adults has rarely been studied in depth. Our aim was to describe the scale and profile of cancer incidence and mortality worldwide among 20–39 year-olds, highlighting major patterns by age, sex, development level, and geographical region.MethodsWe did a population-based study to quantify the burden of young adult cancers worldwide. We defined young adult cancers as those occurring between the ages of 20 and 39 years because these individuals will have passed puberty and adolescence, but not yet experienced the effects of hormonal decline, immune response deterioration, or organ dysfunction associated with chronic health conditions. Global, regional, and country-specific (n=184) data estimates of the number of new cancer cases and cancer-associated deaths that occurred in 2012 among young adults were extracted in four 5-year bands from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2012 for all cancers combined and for 27 major types as defined by the International Classification of Disease, tenth revision. We report the number of new cancer cases and cancer-associated deaths overall and by sex alongside corresponding age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100 000 people per year. We also present results using four levels of the Human Development Index (HDI; low [least developed], medium, high, and very high [most developed]), which is a composite indicator for socioeconomic development comprising life expectancy, education, and gross national income.Findings975 396 new cancer cases and 358 392 cancer-associated deaths occurred among young adults worldwide in 2012, which equated to an ASR of 43·3 new cancer cases per 100 000 people per year and 15·9 cancer-associated deaths per 100 000 people per year. The burden was disproportionally greater among women and the most common cancer types overall in terms of new cases were female breast cancer, cervical cancer, thyroid cancer, leukaemia, and colorectal cancer; in terms of deaths, female breast cancer, liver cancer, leukaemia, and cervical cancer were the main contributors. When assessed by development level and geographical region, the cancer profile varied substantially; generally, the burden of infection-associated cancers was greater in regions under transition. Cancer incidence was elevated in very high-HDI regions compared with low-HDI regions (ASR 64·5 vs 46·2 cancer cases per 100 000 people per year); however, the mortality burden was 3 times higher in low-HDI regions (ASR 25·4 vs 9·2 cancer-associated deaths per 100 000 people per year), reflecting differences in cancer profiles and inferior outcomes.InterpretationThe global cancer burden among 20–39 year-olds differs from that seen in younger or older ages and varies substantially by age, sex, development level, and geographical region. Although the cancer burden is lower in this age group than that observed in older ages, the societal and economic effects remain great given the major effects of premature morbidity and mortality. Targeted surveillance, prevention, and treatment are needed to reduce the cancer burden in this underserved age group.FundingInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and European Commission's FP-7 Marie Curie Actions–People–COFUND.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32055

2019

Cited 368 times

Global trends in colorectal cancer mortality: projections to the year 2035

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide and the fourth most common cause of cancer death. Predictions of the future burden of the disease inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for 1989–2016 were used to project colon and rectal cancer mortality rates and number of deaths in 42 countries up to the year 2035, using age‐period‐cohort (APC) modelling. Mortality rates for colon cancer are predicted to continue decreasing in the majority of included countries from Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania, except Latin America and Caribbean countries. Mortality rates from rectal cancer in general followed those of colon cancer, however rates are predicted to increase substantially in Costa Rica (+73.6%), Australia (+59.2%), United States (+27.8%), Ireland (+24.2%) and Canada (+24.1%). Despite heterogeneous trends in rates, the number of deaths is expected to rise in all countries for both colon and rectal cancer by 60.0% and 71.5% until 2035, respectively, due to population growth and ageing. Reductions in colon and rectal cancer mortality rates are probably due to better accessibility to early detection services and improved specialized care. The expected increase in rectal cancer mortality rates in some countries is worrisome and warrants further investigations.

DOI: 10.1038/s41571-021-00514-z

2021

Cited 335 times

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020–2070

DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2014.01.009

2014

Cited 309 times

International trends in lung cancer incidence by histological subtype: Adenocarcinoma stabilizing in men but still increasing in women

Trends in overall lung cancer incidence in different countries reflect the maturity of the smoking epidemic. Further understanding of the underlying causes for trends over time can be gained by assessing the trends by sex and histological subtype. We provide a temporal analysis of lung cancer incidence in 12 populations (11 countries), with a focus on cohort-specific trends for the main histological subtypes (squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), adenocarcinomas (AdC), and small cell carcinoma).We restrict the analysis to population-based registry data of sufficient quality to provide meaningful interpretation, using data in Europe, North America and Oceania, extracted from successive Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes. Poorly specified morphologies were reallocated to a specified grouping on a population, 5-year period and age group basis.In men, lung cancer rates have been declining overall and by subtype, since the beginning of the study period, except for AdC. AdC incidence rates have risen and surpassed those of SCC (historically the most frequent subtype) in the majority of these populations, but started to stabilize during the mid-1980s in North America, Australia and Iceland. In women, AdC has been historically the most frequent subtype and rates continue to increase in most populations studied. Early signs of a decline in AdC can however be observed in Canada, Denmark and Australia among very recent female cohorts, born after 1950.The continuing rise in lung cancer among women in many countries reinforces the need for targeted smoking cessation efforts alongside preventive actions.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-321600

2020

Cited 306 times

Global burden of oesophageal and gastric cancer by histology and subsite in 2018

Objectives To provide updated estimates of the global burden of oesophageal and gastric cancer by subsite and type. Methods Using data from population-based cancer registries, proportions of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) and squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) out of all oesophageal as well as cardia gastric cancer (CGC) and non-CGC (NCGC) out of all gastric cancer cases were computed by country, sex and age group. Proportions were subsequently applied to the estimated numbers of oesophageal and gastric cancer cases from GLOBOCAN 2018. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were calculated. Results In 2018, there were an estimated 572 000 new cases of oesophageal cancer worldwide, 85 000 OACs (ASR 0.9 per 100 000, both sexes combined) and 482 000 OSCCs (ASR 5.3). Out of 1.03 million gastric cancers, there were an estimated 181 000 cases of CGC (ASR 2.0) and 853 000 cases of NCGC (ASR 9.2). While the highest incidence rates of OSCC, CGC and NCGC were observed in Eastern Asia (ASRs 11.1, 4.4 and 17.9, respectively), rates of OAC were highest in Northern Europe (ASR 3.5). While globally OSCC and NCGC remain the most common types of oesophageal and gastric cancer, respectively, rates of OAC exceed those of OSCC in an increasing number of high-income countries. Conclusions These updated estimates of the global burden of oesophageal and gastric cancer by subtype and site suggest an ongoing transition in epidemiological patterns. This work will serve as a cornerstone for policy-making and will aid in developing appropriate cancer control strategies.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(18)30836-2

2019

Cited 288 times

Impact of scaled up human papillomavirus vaccination and cervical screening and the potential for global elimination of cervical cancer in 181 countries, 2020–99: a modelling study

Cervical screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination have been implemented in most high-income countries; however, coverage is low in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2018, the Director-General of WHO announced a call to action for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. WHO has called for global action to scale-up vaccination, screening, and treatment of precancer, early detection and prompt treatment of early invasive cancers, and palliative care. An elimination threshold in terms of cervical cancer incidence has not yet been defined, but an absolute rate of cervical cancer incidence could be chosen for such a threshold. In this study, we aimed to quantify the potential cumulative effect of scaled up global vaccination and screening coverage on the number of cervical cancer cases averted over the 50 years from 2020 to 2069, and to predict outcomes beyond 2070 to identify the earliest years by which cervical cancer rates could drop below two absolute levels that could be considered as possible elimination thresholds-the rare cancer threshold (six new cases per 100 000 women per year, which has been observed in only a few countries), and a lower threshold of four new cases per 100 000 women per year.In this statistical trends analysis and modelling study, we did a statistical analysis of existing trends in cervical cancer worldwide using high-quality cancer registry data included in the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We then used a comprehensive and extensively validated simulation platform, Policy1-Cervix, to do a dynamic multicohort modelled analysis of the impact of potential scale-up scenarios for cervical cancer prevention, in order to predict the future incidence rates and burden of cervical cancer. Data are presented globally, by Human Development Index (HDI) category, and at the individual country level.In the absence of further intervention, there would be 44·4 million cervical cancer cases diagnosed globally over the period 2020-69, with almost two-thirds of cases occurring in low-HDI or medium-HDI countries. Rapid vaccination scale-up to 80-100% coverage globally by 2020 with a broad-spectrum HPV vaccine could avert 6·7-7·7 million cases in this period, but more than half of these cases will be averted after 2060. Implementation of HPV-based screening twice per lifetime at age 35 years and 45 years in all LMICs with 70% coverage globally will bring forward the effects of prevention and avert a total of 12·5-13·4 million cases in the next 50 years. Rapid scale-up of combined high-coverage screening and vaccination from 2020 onwards would result in average annual cervical cancer incidence declining to less than six new cases per 100 000 individuals by 2045-49 for very-high-HDI countries, 2055-59 for high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for medium-HDI countries, and 2085-89 for low-HDI countries, and to less than four cases per 100 000 by 2055-59 for very-high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for high-HDI countries, 2070-79 for medium-HDI countries, and 2090-2100 or beyond for low-HDI countries. However, rates of less than four new cases per 100 000 would not be achieved in all individual low-HDI countries by the end of the century. If delivery of vaccination and screening is more gradually scaled up over the period 2020-50 (eg, 20-45% vaccination coverage and 25-70% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2030, increasing to 40-90% vaccination coverage and 90% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2050, when considered as average coverage rates across HDI categories), end of the century incidence rates will be reduced by a lesser amount. In this scenario, average cervical cancer incidence rates will decline to 0·8 cases per 100 000 for very-high-HDI countries, 1·3 per 100 000 for high-HDI countries, 4·4 per 100 000 for medium-HDI countries, and 14 per 100 000 for low-HDI countries, by the end of the century.More than 44 million women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer in the next 50 years if primary and secondary prevention programmes are not implemented in LMICs. If high coverage vaccination can be implemented quickly, a substantial effect on the burden of disease will be seen after three to four decades, but nearer-term impact will require delivery of cervical screening to older cohorts who will not benefit from HPV vaccination. Widespread coverage of both HPV vaccination and cervical screening from 2020 onwards has the potential to avert up to 12·5-13·4 million cervical cancer cases by 2069, and could achieve average cervical cancer incidence of around four per 100 000 women per year or less, for all country HDI categories, by the end of the century. A draft global strategy to accelerate cervical cancer elimination, with goals and targets for the period 2020-30, will be considered at the World Health Assembly in 2020. The findings presented here have helped inform initial discussions of elimination targets, and ongoing comparative modelling with other groups is supporting the development of the final goals and targets for cervical cancer elimination.National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia, part-funded via the NHMRC Centre of Excellence for Cervical Cancer Control (C4; APP1135172).

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2014-308915

2015

Cited 280 times

Global patterns of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer incidence in 2012

Globally, gastric cancer incidence shows remarkable international variation and demonstrates distinct characteristics by the two major topographical subsites, cardia (CGC) and non-cardia (NCGC). Because global incidence estimates by subsite are lacking, we aimed to describe the worldwide incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC separately.Using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume X (CI5X), we ascertained the proportions of CGC and NCGC by country, sex and age group (<65 and ≥65 years). These derived proportions were applied to GLOBOCAN 2012 data to estimate country-specific age-standardised CGC and NCGC incidence rates (ASR). Regional proportions were used to estimate rates for countries not included in CI5X.According to our estimates, in 2012, there were 260,000 cases of CGC (ASR 3.3 per 100,000) and 691,000 cases of NCGC (ASR 8.8) worldwide. The highest regional rates of both gastric cancer subsites were in Eastern/Southeastern Asia (in men, ASRs: 8.7 and 21.7 for CGC and NCGC, respectively). In most countries NCGC occurred more frequently than CGC with an average ratio of 2:1; however, in some populations where NCGC incidence rates were lower than the global average, CGC rates were similar or higher than NCGC rates. Men had higher rates than women for both subsites but particularly for CGC (male-to-female ratio 3:1).This study has, for the first time, quantified global incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC providing new insights into the global burden of these cancers. Country-specific estimates are provided; however, these should be interpreted with caution. This work will support future investigations across populations.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00279-5

2021

Cited 277 times

Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study

BackgroundAlcohol use is causally linked to multiple cancers. We present global, regional, and national estimates of alcohol-attributable cancer burden in 2020 to inform alcohol policy and cancer control across different settings globally.MethodsIn this population-based study, population attributable fractions (PAFs) calculated using a theoretical minimum-risk exposure of lifetime abstention and 2010 alcohol consumption estimates from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health (assuming a 10-year latency period between alcohol consumption and cancer diagnosis), combined with corresponding relative risk estimates from systematic literature reviews as part of the WCRF Continuous Update Project, were applied to cancer incidence data from GLOBOCAN 2020 to estimate new cancer cases attributable to alcohol. We also calculated the contribution of moderate (<20 g per day), risky (20–60 g per day), and heavy (>60 g per day) drinking to the total alcohol-attributable cancer burden, as well as the contribution by 10 g per day increment (up to a maximum of 150 g). 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using a Monte Carlo-like approach.FindingsGlobally, an estimated 741 300 (95% UI 558 500–951 200), or 4·1% (3·1–5·3), of all new cases of cancer in 2020 were attributable to alcohol consumption. Males accounted for 568 700 (76·7%; 95% UI 422 500–731 100) of total alcohol-attributable cancer cases, and cancers of the oesophagus (189 700 cases [110 900–274 600]), liver (154 700 cases [43 700–281 500]), and breast (98 300 cases [68 200–130 500]) contributed the most cases. PAFs were lowest in northern Africa (0·3% [95% UI 0·1–3·3]) and western Asia (0·7% [0·5–1·2]), and highest in eastern Asia (5·7% [3·6–7·9]) and central and eastern Europe (5·6% [4·6–6·6]). The largest burden of alcohol-attributable cancers was represented by heavy drinking (346 400 [46·7%; 95% UI 227 900–489 400] cases) and risky drinking (291 800 [39·4%; 227 700–333 100] cases), whereas moderate drinking contributed 103 100 (13·9%; 82 600–207 200) cases, and drinking up to 10 g per day contributed 41 300 (35 400–145 800) cases.InterpretationOur findings highlight the need for effective policy and interventions to increase awareness of cancer risks associated with alcohol use and decrease overall alcohol consumption to prevent the burden of alcohol-attributable cancers.FundingNone.

DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(19)30147-5

2019

Cited 270 times

Changes in colorectal cancer incidence in seven high-income countries: a population-based study

Background The overall incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in many high-income countries, yet analyses in the USA and other high-income countries such as Australia, Canada, and Norway have suggested increasing incidences among adults younger than 50 years. We aimed to examine longitudinal and generational changes in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer in seven high-income countries. Methods We obtained data for the incidence of colon and rectal cancer from 20 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Ireland, and the UK for the earliest available year until 2014. We used age–period–cohort modelling to assess trends in incidence by age group, period, and birth cohort. We stratified cases by tumour subsite according to the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Age-standardised incidences were calculated on the basis of the world standard population. Findings An overall decline or stabilisation in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer was noted in all studied countries. In the most recent 10-year period for which data were available, however, significant increases were noted in the incidence of colon cancer in people younger than 50 years in Denmark (by 3·1%; per year), New Zealand (2·9% per year), Australia (2·9% per year), and the UK (1·8% per year). Significant increases in the average annual percentage change in the incidence of rectal cancer were also noted in this age group in Canada (by 3·4% per year), Australia (2·6% per year), and the UK (1·4% per year). Contemporaneously, in people aged 50–74 years, the average annual percentage change in the incidence of colon cancer decreased significantly in Australia (by 1·6% per year), Canada (1·9% per year), and New Zealand (3·4% per year) and of rectal cancer in Australia (2·4% per year), Canada (1·2% per year), and the UK (1·2% per year). Increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years were mainly driven by increases in distal (left) tumours of the colon. In all countries, we noted non-linear cohort effects, which were more pronounced for rectal than for colon cancer. Interpretation We noted a substantial increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years in some of the countries in this study. Future studies are needed to establish the root causes of this rising incidence to enable the development of potential preventive and early-detection strategies. Funding Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, NHS England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Wales Cancer Network.

DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.07.026

2013

Cited 266 times

Comprehensive Control of Human Papillomavirus Infections and Related Diseases

Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is recognized as one of the major causes of infection-related cancer worldwide, as well as the causal factor in other diseases. Strong evidence for a causal etiology with HPV has been stated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer for cancers of the cervix uteri, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx (including base of the tongue and tonsils). Of the estimated 12.7 million new cancers occurring in 2008 worldwide, 4.8% were attributable to HPV infection, with substantially higher incidence and mortality rates seen in developing versus developed countries. In recent years, we have gained tremendous knowledge about HPVs and their interactions with host cells, tissues and the immune system; have validated and implemented strategies for safe and efficacious prophylactic vaccination against HPV infections; have developed increasingly sensitive and specific molecular diagnostic tools for HPV detection for use in cervical cancer screening; and have substantially increased global awareness of HPV and its many associated diseases in women, men, and children. While these achievements exemplify the success of biomedical research in generating important public health interventions, they also generate new and daunting challenges: costs of HPV prevention and medical care, the implementation of what is technically possible, socio-political resistance to prevention opportunities, and the very wide ranges of national economic capabilities and health care systems. Gains and challenges faced in the quest for comprehensive control of HPV infection and HPV-related cancers and other disease are summarized in this review. The information presented may be viewed in terms of a reframed paradigm of prevention of cervical cancer and other HPV-related diseases that will include strategic combinations of at least four major components: 1) routine introduction of HPV vaccines to women in all countries, 2) extension and simplification of existing screening programs using HPV-based technology, 3) extension of adapted screening programs to developing populations, and 4) consideration of the broader spectrum of cancers and other diseases preventable by HPV vaccination in women, as well as in men. Despite the huge advances already achieved, there must be ongoing efforts including international advocacy to achieve widespread-optimally universal-implementation of HPV prevention strategies in both developed and developing countries. This article summarizes information from the chapters presented in a special ICO Monograph 'Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases' Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012. Additional details on each subtopic and full information regarding the supporting literature references may be found in the original chapters.

DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2022.05.054

2022

Cited 248 times

The Global Landscape of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in 2020 and Projections to 2040: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020

The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2020 and projections for the year 2040.Estimates of esophageal cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated overall, by sex, histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma [AC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]), country, and level of human development for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on global demographic projections.Globally, there were an estimated 604,100 new cases of, and 544,100 deaths from, esophageal cancer in 2020, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 6.3 and 5.6 per 100,000, respectively. Most cases were SCCs (85% [512,500 cases]) and 14% (85,700 cases) were ACs. Incidence and mortality rates were 2- to 3-fold higher in male (9.3 and 8.2, respectively) compared with female (3.6 and 3.2, respectively) individuals. Global variations in incidence and mortality were observed across countries and world regions; the highest rates occurred in Eastern Asia and Southern and Eastern Africa and the lowest occurred in Western Africa and Central America regions. If rates remain stable, 957,000 new cases (141,300 AC cases and 806,000 SCC cases) and 880,000 deaths from esophageal cancer are expected in 2040.These updated estimates of the global burden of esophageal cancer represent an important baseline for setting priorities in policy making and developing and accelerating cancer control initiatives to reduce the current and projected burden. Although primary prevention remains key, screening and early detection represent important components of esophageal cancer control in high-risk populations.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.24803

2009

Cited 234 times

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-320234

2020

Cited 227 times

Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035

Objectives The incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data. Methods Data on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models. Results Overall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations. Conclusions While gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101404

2022

Cited 223 times

The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020–40: A population-based modelling study

To examine global patterns of gastric cancer in 2020 and the projected burden in 2040.Data on primary gastric cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and level of human development index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections.In total, ∼1.1 million new cases and 770,000 deaths of gastric cancer were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were on average 2-fold higher in males than females (15.8 and 7.0 per 100,000, respectively) with variation across countries. Highest incidence rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males and females (32.5 and 13.2, respectively); males residing in Japan (48.1), Mongolia (47.2) and Korea (39.7) had the highest rates in the world. Incidence was lowest in Africa with incidence rates < 5 per 100,000. Highest mortality rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males (21.1) and females (8.8). A lower share of deaths was observed in very high HDI countries compared to medium and low HDI countries. The annual burden of gastric cancer is predicted to increase to ∼1.8 million new cases and ∼1.3 million deaths by 2040.These estimates of the global burden of gastric cancer pinpoint countries and regions of high incidence and mortality in need of cancer control initiatives. Primary prevention through eradication of H. pylori and behavioural changes such as reducing salt intake, smoking, obesity, and alcohol, remains key in stomach cancer control.No direct funding was received. All authors had access to the included study data and all authors agreed with the final decision to submit for publication.

DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.01.003

2016

Cited 214 times

Obesity and cancer: An update of the global impact

In view of the growing global obesity epidemic, this paper reviews the relation between recent trends in body mass index (BMI) and the changing profile of cancer worldwide. By examining seven selected countries, each representing a world region, a pattern of increasing BMI with region and gender-specific diversity is noted: increasing levels of BMI were most pronounced in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia), rather modest in Eastern Asia (India) and generally more rapid in females than in males. This observation translates into a disproportionate distribution of cancer attributable to high levels of BMI, ranging by sex from 4-9% in Saudi Arabia and from 0.2-1.2% in India. Overweight and obesity may also influence cancer outcomes, and hence have a varying impact on cancer survival and death in different world regions. Future challenges in cancer studies exploring the association with overweight and obesity concern the measurement of adiposity and its potentially cumulative effect over the life course. Given the limitations of BMI as an imperfect measure of body fatness, routine anthropometric data collection needs to be extended to develop more informative measures, such as waist circumference in settings where the gold standard tools remain unaffordable. Furthermore, questions surrounding the dose-response and timing of obesity and their associations with cancer remain to be answered. Improved surveillance of health risk factors including obesity as well as the scale and profile of cancer in every country of the world is urgently needed. This will enable the design of cost-effective actions to curb the growing burden of cancer related to excess body weight.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30382

2016

Cited 204 times

A global view on cancer incidence and national levels of the human development index

Socioeconomic factors are associated with cancer incidence through complex and variable pathways. We assessed cancer incidence for all cancers combined and 27 major types according to national human development levels. Using GLOBOCAN data for 184 countries, age‐standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were assessed by four levels (low, medium, high, very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite index of life expectancy, education, and gross national income. A strong positive relationship between overall cancer incidence and HDI level was observed. When comparing the ASR in very high HDI regions with that in low HDI regions, we observed a positive association ranging from 2 to 14 and 2 to 11 times higher in males and females, respectively, depending on the cancer type. Positive dose–response relationships between the ASR and HDI level were observed in both sexes for the following cancer types: lung, pancreas, leukemia, gallbladder, colorectum, brain/nervous system, kidney, multiple myeloma, and thyroid. Positive associations were also observed for testicular, bladder, lip/oral cavity, and other pharyngeal cancers, Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma of the skin in males, and corpus uteri, breast, and ovarian cancers and non‐Hodgkin lymphoma in females. A negative dose–response relationship was observed for cervical and other pharyngeal cancers and Kaposi sarcoma in females. Although the relationship between incidence and the HDI remained when assessed at the country‐specific level, variations in risk within HDI levels were also observed. We highlight positive and negative associations between incidence and human development for most cancers, which will aid the planning of cancer control priorities among countries undergoing human development transitions.

DOI: 10.1177/1403494817715400

2017

Cited 185 times

The global cancer burden and human development: A review

This review examines the links between human development and cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, as well as cancer-related risk-factors and outcomes, such as disability and life expectancy.To assess human development, the Human Development Index was utilized continuously and according to four levels (low, medium, high, very high), where the low and very high categories include the least and most developed countries, respectively. All studies that assessed aspects of the global cancer burden using this measure were reviewed.Although the present cancer incidence burden is greater in higher Human Development Index countries, a greater proportion of the global mortality burden is observed in less developed countries, with a higher mean fatality rate in the latter countries. Further, the future cancer burden is expected to disproportionally affect less developed regions; in particular, it has been estimated that low and medium Human Development Index countries will experience a 100% and 81% increase in cancer incidence from 2008 to 2030, respectively. Disparities were also observed in risk factors and average health outcomes, such as a greater number of years of life lost prematurely and fewer cancer-related gains in life expectancy observed in lower versus higher Human Development Index settings.From a global perspective, there remain clear disparities in the cancer burden according to national Human Development Index scores. International efforts are needed to aid countries in social and economic transition in order to efficiently plan, implement and evaluate cancer control initiatives as a means to reduce the widening gap in cancer occurrence and survival worldwide.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33232

2020

Cited 183 times

Estimated global cancer incidence in the oldest adults in 2018 and projections to 2050

Abstract Using GLOBOCAN estimates, we describe the estimated cancer incidence among adults aged 80 years or older at the regional and global level in 2018, reporting the number of new cancer cases, and the truncated age‐standardised incidence rates (per 100 000) for all cancer sites combined for this age group. We also presented the five most frequent cancers diagnosed by region and globally among females and males aged 65 to 79 years old and 80 years or older. We, finally, estimated the number of new cancer cases in 2050, the proportion of cases aged 80 years or older, and the proportional increase between 2018 and 2050 by region, by applying population projections to the 2018 incidence rates. In 2018, an estimated 2.3 million new cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) were aged 80 years or older worldwide (13% of all cancer cases), with large variation in the profiles at regional levels. Globally, breast, lung and colon were the most common cancer sites diagnosed in the oldest females, while prostate, lung and colon were most frequent in the oldest males. In 2050, an estimated 6.9 million new cancers will be diagnosed in adults aged 80 years or older worldwide (20.5% of all cancer cases). Due to the complexity of cancer management in the oldest patients, the expected increase will challenge healthcare systems worldwide, posing a tangible economic and social impact on families and society. It is time to consider the oldest population in cancer control policies.

DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(17)30046-4

2017

Cited 176 times

Burden of hip fracture using disability-adjusted life-years: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium

No studies have estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to hip fractures using real-life follow-up cohort data. We aimed to quantify the burden of disease due to incident hip fracture using DALYs in prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium, and to calculate population attributable fractions based on DALYs for specific risk factors.We used data from six cohorts of participants aged 50 years or older at recruitment to calculate DALYs. We applied disability weights proposed by the National Osteoporosis Foundation and did a series of sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of DALY estimates. We calculated population attributable fractions for smoking, body-mass index (BMI), physical activity, alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes and parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, and oral contraceptives in women. We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts with pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis methods.223 880 men and women were followed up for a mean of 13 years (SD 6). 7724 (3·5%) participants developed an incident hip fracture, of whom 413 (5·3%) died as a result. 5964 DALYs (27 per 1000 individuals) were lost due to hip fractures, 1230 (20·6%) of which were in the group aged 75-79 years. 4150 (69·6%) DALYs were attributed to disability. Current smoking was the risk factor responsible for the greatest hip fracture burden (7·5%, 95% CI 5·2-9·7) followed by physical inactivity (5·5%, 2·1-8·5), history of diabetes (2·8%, 2·1-4·0), and low to average BMI (2·0%, 1·4-2·7), whereas low alcohol consumption (0·01-2·5 g per day) and high BMI had a protective effect.Hip fracture can lead to a substantial loss of healthy life-years in elderly people. National public health policies should be strengthened to reduce hip fracture incidence and mortality. Primary prevention measures should be strengthened to prevent falls, and reduce smoking and a sedentary lifestyle.European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31043

2017

Cited 169 times

Status of implementation and organization of cancer screening in The European Union Member States—Summary results from the second European screening report

The second report on the implementation status of cancer screening in European Union (EU) was published in 2017. The report described the implementation status, protocols and organization (updated till 2016) and invitation coverage (for index year 2013) of breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening in the EU. Experts in screening programme monitoring ( N = 80) from the EU Member States having access to requisite information in their respective countries provided data on breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening through online questionnaires. Data was collected for screening performed in the framework of publicly mandated programmes only. Filled in questionnaires were received from 26 Member States for all three sites and from one Member State for breast cancer only. Substantial improvement in screening implementation using population‐based approach was documented. Among the age‐eligible women, 94.7% were residents of Member States implementing or planning population‐based breast cancer screening in 2016, compared to 91.6% in 2007. The corresponding figures for cervical cancer screening were 72.3 and 51.3% in 2016 and 2007, respectively. Most significant improvement was documented for colorectal cancer screening with roll‐out ongoing or completed in 17 Member States in 2016, compared to only five in 2007. So the access to population‐based screening increased to 72.4% of the age‐eligible populations in 2016 as opposed to only 42.6% in 2007. The invitation coverage was highly variable, ranging from 0.2–111% for breast cancer, 7.6–105% for cervical cancer and 1.8–127% for colorectal cancer in the target populations. In spite of the considerable progress, much work remains to be done to achieve optimal effectiveness. Continued monitoring, regular feedbacks and periodic reporting are needed to ensure the desired impacts of the programmes.

DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3026(17)30232-6

2018

Cited 167 times

Epidemiological patterns of leukaemia in 184 countries: a population-based study

Leukaemia is a heterogeneous group of haemopoietic cancers that comprises a number of diverse and biologically distinct subgroups. We examine the leukaemia burden worldwide and highlight the distinct incidence patterns in order to elucidate explanatory factors that may support preventive measures and health resource planning. We aimed to estimate the global burden of leukaemia incidence according to the four major subtypes stratified by age and sex.In this population-based study, we assessed leukaemia incidence for the major subtypes using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume X (CI5-X), which includes data from 290 cancer registries in 68 countries covering the diagnostic period 2003-07, for all ages and both sexes. We then extracted counts and incidence rates in 184 countries for the year 2012 from IARC's GLOBOCAN database of national estimates. We calculated age-specific incidence rates per 100 000 person-years and age-standardised rates (ASRs) using the world standard population by country, sex, age group, and where applicable, by major subtypes. We excluded from all analyses registries for which the total number of leukaemia cases was less than 100 or the proportion of microscopically verified (MV%) cases was less than 80% (2572 cases).717 863 cases between 2003-07 were included in this analysis. More than 350 000 new leukaemia cases were estimated in 2012. We observed substantial variation in incidence between and within world regions. The highest leukaemia incidence rates for both sexes were estimated in Australia and New Zealand (ASR per 100 000 11·3 in males and 7·2 in females), Northern America (10·5 in males and 7·2 in females), and western Europe (9·6 in males and 6·0 in females), and the lowest was in in western Africa (1·4 in males and 1·2 in females). Rates were generally higher in males than females with an overall male to female ratio of 1·4. In children, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was the main subtype in all studied countries in both sexes, and characterised by a bimodal age-specific pattern. The subtype distribution was more diverse in adults, with a relatively higher proportion of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in most European and North American countries, whereas rates of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia remained relatively high among adults in selected South American, Caribbean, Asian, and African populations.Geographical disparities in leukaemia might partly be explained by quality of, and access to, health systems linked to resource levels, although there is probably a role for aetiological factors, including gene-environment interactions. The observed bimodal pattern could be due to different risk factors affecting different ages, and might include a genetic component.European Commission's FP-7 Marie Curie Actions-People-COFUND.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101375

2022

Cited 146 times

Tobacco smoking changes during the first pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundGlobally, tobacco smoking remains the largest preventable cause of premature death. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced nations to take unprecedented measures, including ‘lockdowns’ that might impact tobacco smoking behaviour. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess smoking behaviour changes during the early pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.MethodsWe searched Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases (January–November 2020) for published and pre-print articles that reported specific smoking behaviour changes or intentions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used random-effects models to pool prevalence ratios comparing the prevalence of smoking during and before the pandemic, and the prevalence of smoking behaviour changes during the pandemic. The PROSPERO registration number for this systematic review was CRD42020206383.Findings31 studies were included in meta-analyses, with smoking data for 269,164 participants across 24 countries. The proportion of people smoking during the pandemic was lower than that before, with a pooled prevalence ratio of 0·87 (95%CI:0·79–0·97). Among people who smoke, 21% (95%CI:14–30%) smoked less, 27% (95%CI:22–32%) smoked more, 50% (95%CI:41%-58%) had unchanged smoking and 4% (95%CI:1–9%) reported quitting smoking. Among people who did not smoke, 2% (95%CI:1–3%) started smoking during the pandemic. Heterogeneity was high in all meta-analyses and so the pooled estimates should be interpreted with caution (I2>91% and p-heterogeneity<0·001). Almost all studies were at high risk of bias due to use of non-representative samples, non-response bias, and utilisation of non-validated questions.InterpretationSmoking behaviour changes during the first phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were highly mixed. Meta-analyses indicated that there was a relative reduction in overall smoking prevalence during the pandemic, while similar proportions of people who smoke smoked more or smoked less, although heterogeneity was high. Implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies and programs, including tobacco cessation services, have an important role in ensuring that the COVID-19 pandemic does not exacerbate the smoking pandemic and associated adverse health outcomes.FundingNo specific funding was received for this study.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2021.11.023

2022

Cited 135 times

Global, regional and national burden of primary liver cancer by subtype

Introduction Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) are the two main histological subtypes of primary liver cancer. Estimates of the burden of liver cancer by subtype are needed to facilitate development and evaluation of liver cancer control globally. We provide worldwide, regional and national estimates of HCC and iCCA incidence using high-quality data. Methods We used population-based cancer registry data on liver cancer cases by histological subtype from 95 countries to compute the sex- and country-specific distributions of HCC, iCCA and other specified histology. Subtype distributions were applied to estimates of total liver cancer cases for 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated. Results There were an estimated 826,000 cases of liver cancer globally in 2018: 661,000 HCC (ASR 7.3 cases per 100,000); 123,000 iCCA (ASR 1.4) and 42,000 other specified histology (ASR 0.5). HCC contributed 80% of the world total liver cancer burden followed by iCCA (14.9%) and other specified histology (5.1%). HCC rates were highest in Eastern Asia (ASR 14.8), Northern Africa (ASR 13.2) and South-Eastern Asia (ASR 9.5). Rates of iCCA were highest in South-Eastern Asia (ASR 2.9), Eastern Asia (ASR 2.0), Northern Europe, the Caribbean and Central America and Oceania (ASR all 1.8). Conclusion We have shown the importance of uncovering the distinct patterns of the major subtypes of liver cancer. The use of these estimates is critical to further develop public health policy to reduce the burden of liver cancer and monitor progress in controlling HCC and iCCA globally.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32406

2019

Cited 128 times

Breast cancer survival in sub‐Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and human development index: A population‐based registry study

Breast cancer is the leading cancer diagnosis and second most common cause of cancer deaths in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, there are few population‐level survival data from Africa and none on the survival differences by stage at diagnosis. Here, we estimate breast cancer survival within SSA by area, stage and country‐level human development index (HDI). We obtained data on a random sample of 2,588 breast cancer incident cases, diagnosed in 2008–2015 from 14 population‐based cancer registries in 12 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2,311 were included for survival analyses. The 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year observed and relative survival (RS) were estimated by registry, stage and country‐level HDI. We equally estimated the excess hazards adjusting for potential confounders. Among patients with known stage, 64.9% were diagnosed in late stages, with 18.4% being metastatic at diagnosis. The RS varied by registry, ranging from 21.6%(8.2–39.8) at Year 3 in Bulawayo to 84.5% (70.6–93.5) in Namibia. Patients diagnosed at early stages had a 3‐year RS of 78% (71.6–83.3) in contrast to 40.3% (34.9–45.7) at advanced stages (III and IV). The overall RS at Year 1 was 86.1% (84.4–87.6), 65.8% (63.5–68.1) at Year 3 and 59.0% (56.3–61.6) at Year 5. Age at diagnosis was not independently associated with increased mortality risk after adjusting for the effect of stage and country‐level HDI. In conclusion, downstaging breast cancer at diagnosis and improving access to quality care could be pivotal in improving breast cancer survival outcomes in Africa.

DOI: 10.3390/nu13093173

2021

Cited 120 times

Alcohol and Cancer: Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms

Approximately 4% of cancers worldwide are caused by alcohol consumption. Drinking alcohol increases the risk of several cancer types, including cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectum, and breast. In this review, we summarise the epidemiological evidence on alcohol and cancer risk and the mechanistic evidence of alcohol-mediated carcinogenesis. There are several mechanistic pathways by which the consumption of alcohol, as ethanol, is known to cause cancer, though some are still not fully understood. Ethanol's metabolite acetaldehyde can cause DNA damage and block DNA synthesis and repair, whilst both ethanol and acetaldehyde can disrupt DNA methylation. Ethanol can also induce inflammation and oxidative stress leading to lipid peroxidation and further DNA damage. One-carbon metabolism and folate levels are also impaired by ethanol. Other known mechanisms are discussed. Further understanding of the carcinogenic properties of alcohol and its metabolites will inform future research, but there is already a need for comprehensive alcohol control and cancer prevention strategies to reduce the burden of cancer attributable to alcohol.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34002

2022

Cited 88 times

Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using <scp>GLOBOCAN</scp> 2020

Abstract Ovarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low‐resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age‐standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four‐tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four‐tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.

DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00090-1

2022

Cited 40 times

Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study

BackgroundLong-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality estimate the future burden of cancer in a population, and can be of great use in informing the planning of health services and the management of resources. We aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates and numbers of new cases and deaths up until 2044 for all cancers combined and for 21 individual cancer types in Australia. We also illustrate the potential effect of treatment delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic on future colorectal cancer mortality rates.MethodsIn this statistical modelling study, cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044 were projected based on data up to 2017 and 2019, respectively. Cigarette smoking exposure (1945–2019), participation rates in the breast cancer screening programme (1996–2019), and prostate-specific antigen testing rates (1994–2020) were included where relevant. The baseline projection model using an age-period-cohort model or generalised linear model for each cancer type was selected based on model fit statistics and validation with pre-COVID-19 observed data. To assess the impact of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer mortality, we obtained data on incidence, survival, prevalence, and cancer treatment for colorectal cancer from different authorities. The relative risks of death due to system-caused treatment delays were derived from a published systematic review. Numbers of excess colorectal cancer deaths were estimated using the relative risk of death per week of treatment delay and different durations of delay under a number of hypothetical scenarios.FindingsProjections indicate that in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic effects, the age-standardised incidence rate for all cancers combined for males would decline over 2020–44, and for females the incidence rate would be relatively stable in Australia. The mortality rates for all cancers combined for both males and females are expected to continuously decline during 2020–44. The total number of new cases are projected to increase by 47·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·2–61·3) for males, from 380 306 in 2015–19 to 560 744 (95% UI 514 244–613 356) in 2040–44, and by 54·4% (95% UI 40·2–70·5) for females, from 313 263 in 2015–19 to 483 527 (95% UI 439 069–534 090) in 2040–44. The number of cancer deaths are projected to increase by 36·4% (95% UI 15·3–63·9) for males, from 132 440 in 2015–19 to 180 663 (95% UI 152 719–217 126) in 2040–44, and by 36·6% (95% UI 15·8–64·1) for females, from 102 103 in 2015–19 to 139 482 (95% UI 118 186–167 527) in 2040–44, due to population ageing and growth. The example COVID-19 pandemic scenario of a 6-month health-care system disruption with 16-week treatment delays for colorectal cancer patients could result in 460 (95% UI 338–595) additional deaths and 437 (95% UI 314–570) deaths occurring earlier than expected in 2020–44.InterpretationThese projections can inform health service planning for cancer care and treatment in Australia. Despite the continuous decline in cancer mortality rates, and the decline or plateau in incidence rates, our projections suggest an overall 51% increase in the number of new cancer cases and a 36% increase in the number of cancer deaths over the 25-year projection period. This means that continued efforts to increase screening uptake and to control risk factors, including smoking exposure, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and infections, must remain public health priorities.FundingPartly funded by Cancer Council Australia.

DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01701-4

2023

Cited 23 times

Women, power, and cancer: a Lancet Commission

Women interact with cancer in complex ways, as healthy individuals participating in cancer prevention and screening activities, as individuals living with and beyond a cancer diagnosis, as caregivers for family members and friends, as patient advocates, as health workers and health-care professionals, and as cancer researchers and policy makers. Women, power, and cancer: a need for change and a force for progressEliminating suffering from cancer requires action across all of society: governments, industry, academia, health-care institutions, non-profit organisations, and diverse communities. Everyone in society has a role in contributing to progress against cancer, ranging from adhering to cancer prevention approaches and working in communities to leading large organisations. In this context, women in particular bring unique and essential perspectives to every interaction, at every level of society. The Lancet Commission on women, power, and cancer1 presents a comprehensive, global view of how the unique difficulties that women face can limit their ability to overcome the challenges that cancer presents, both for themselves and for society overall. Full-Text PDF The transformative potential of law for gender and cancerThe Lancet Commission1 on women and cancer investigates the nexus of gender, power, and cancer. The law—by which we mean the wide range of national and international instruments and practices that includes legislation, regulation, court cases, international agreements, administrative instruments, decrees, and customs—has immense power to shape norms and behaviours of individuals, communities, organisations, and governments and as such, impacts all aspects of cancer prevention, research, treatment, and support. Full-Text PDF

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(22)00704-5

2023

Cited 15 times

Cancer survival in Africa, central and south America, and Asia (SURVCAN-3): a population-based benchmarking study in 32 countries

Background Population-based cancer survival is a key measurement of cancer control performance linked to diagnosis and treatment, but benchmarking studies that include lower-income settings and that link results to health systems and human development are scarce. SURVCAN-3 is an international collaboration of population-based cancer registries that aims to benchmark timely and comparable cancer survival estimates in Africa, central and south America, and Asia. Methods In SURVCAN-3, population-based cancer registries from Africa, central and south America, and Asia were invited to contribute data. Quality control and data checks were carried out in collaboration with population-based cancer registries and, where applicable, active follow-up was performed at the registry. Patient-level data (sex, age at diagnosis, date of diagnosis, morphology and topography, stage, vital status, and date of death or last contact) were included, comprising patients diagnosed between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012, and followed up for at least 2 years (until Dec 31, 2014). Age-standardised net survival (survival where cancer was the only possible cause of death), with 95% CIs, at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years after diagnosis were calculated using Pohar-Perme estimators for 15 major cancers. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year net survival estimates were stratified by countries within continents (Africa, central and south America, and Asia), and countries according to the four-tier Human Development Index (HDI; low, medium, high, and very high). Findings 1 400 435 cancer cases from 68 population-based cancer registries in 32 countries were included. Net survival varied substantially between countries and world regions, with estimates steadily rising with increasing levels of the HDI. Across the included cancer types, countries within the lowest HDI category (eg, CÔte d'Ivoire) had a maximum 3-year net survival of 54·6% (95% CI 33·3−71·6; prostate cancer), whereas those within the highest HDI categories (eg, Israel) had a maximum survival of 96·8% (96·1−97·3; prostate cancer). Three distinct groups with varying outcomes by country and HDI dependant on cancer type were identified: cancers with low median 3-year net survival (<30%) and small differences by HDI category (eg, lung and stomach), cancers with intermediate median 3-year net survival (30–79%) and moderate difference by HDI (eg, cervix and colorectum), and cancers with high median 3-year net survival (≥80%) and large difference by HDI (eg, breast and prostate). Interpretation Disparities in cancer survival across countries were linked to a country's developmental position, and the availability and efficiency of health services. These data can inform policy makers on priorities in cancer control to reduce apparent inequality in cancer outcome. Funding Tata Memorial Hospital, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29105

2014

Cited 129 times

Measuring the societal burden of cancer: The cost of lost productivity due to premature cancer‐related mortality in <scp>E</scp>urope

Every cancer-related death in someone of working age represents an economic loss to society. To inform priorities for cancer control, we estimated costs of lost productivity due to premature cancer-related mortality across Europe, for all cancers and by site, gender, region and country. Cancer deaths in 2008 were obtained from GLOBOCAN for 30 European countries across four regions. Costs were valued using the human capital approach. Years of productive life lost (YPLL) were computed by multiplying deaths between 15 and 64 years by working-life expectancy, then by country-, age- and gender-specific annual wages, corrected for workforce participation and unemployment. Lost productivity costs due to premature cancer-related mortality in Europe in 2008 were €75 billion. Male costs (€49 billion) were almost twice female costs (€26 billion). The most costly sites were lung (€17 billion; 23% of total costs), breast (€7 billion; 9%) and colorectum (€6 billion; 8%). Stomach cancer (in Southern and Central-Eastern Europe) and pancreatic cancer (in Northern and Western Europe) were also among the most costly sites. The average lost productivity cost per cancer death was €219,241. Melanoma had the highest cost per death (€312,798), followed by Hodgkin disease (€306,628) and brain and CNS cancer (€288,850). Premature mortality costs were 0.58% of 2008 European gross domestic product, highest in Central-Eastern Europe (0.81%) and lowest in Northern Europe (0.51%). Premature cancer-related mortality costs in Europe are significant. These results provide a novel perspective on the societal cancer burden and may be used to inform priority setting for cancer control.

DOI: 10.1111/acer.13071

2016

Cited 129 times

Alcohol Use and Breast Cancer: A Critical Review

The objective of this study was to outline the biological pathways of alcohol-attributable breast cancer, the epidemiological risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, and the global burden of breast cancer incidence and mortality attributable to alcohol consumption, with a focus on light drinking. First, the literature regarding the biological mechanisms of how alcohol affects the risk of breast cancer was reviewed and summarized. Second, a search of meta-analyses that evaluated the risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was conducted. Last, the burden of alcohol-attributable breast cancer incidence and mortality was estimated by means of a Population-Attributable Fraction methodology. Data on alcohol consumption were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and data on cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. Alcohol consumption affects breast cancer risk through the alteration in hormone levels and the associated biological pathways, the metabolism of ethanol resulting in carcinogens, and the inhibition of the one carbon metabolism pathway. The systematic review found 15 meta-analyses on the risk relationship between alcohol consumption (also light consumption) and the risk of breast cancer. All but 2 of these analyses showed a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer. An estimated 144,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88,000 to 200,000) breast cancer cases and 38,000 (95% CI: 2,400 to 53,000) breast cancer deaths globally in 2012 were attributable to alcohol, with 18.8% of these cases and 17.5% of these deaths affecting women who were light alcohol consumers. All levels of evidence showed a risk relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer, even at low levels of consumption. Due to this strong relationship, and to the amount of alcohol consumed globally, the incidence of and mortality from alcohol-attributable breast cancer is large.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2013.10.014

2015

Cited 123 times

Convergence of decreasing male and increasing female incidence rates in major tobacco-related cancers in Europe in 1988–2010

Introduction Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988–2010, in 26 countries, of four of the major cancers in the respiratory and upper gastro-intestinal tract associated with tobacco smoking. Methods Data from 47 population-based cancer registries for lung, laryngeal, oral cavity and pharyngeal, and oesophageal cancer cases were obtained from the newly developed data repository within the European Cancer Observatory (http://eco.iarc.fr/). Truncated age-standardised incidence rates (35–74 years) by calendar year, average annual percentage change in incidence over 1998–2007 were calculated. Smoking prevalence in selected countries was extracted from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Health Organization databases. Results There remained great but changing variation in the incidence rates of tobacco-related cancers by European region. Generally, the high rates among men have been declining, while the lower rates among women are increasing, resulting in convergence of the rates. Female lung cancer rates were above male rates in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden (35–64 years). In lung and laryngeal cancers, where smoking is the main risk factor, rates were highest in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries. Despite a lowering of female smoking prevalence, female incidence rates of lung, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers increased in most parts of Europe, but were stable in the Baltic countries. Mixed trends emerged in oesophageal cancer, probably explained by differing risk factors for the two main histological subtypes. Conclusions This data repository offers the opportunity to show the variety of incidence trends by sex among European countries. The diverse patterns of trends reflect varied exposure to risk factors. Given the heavy cancer burden attributed to tobacco and the fact that tobacco use is entirely preventable, tobacco control remains a top priority in Europe. Prevention efforts should be intensified in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2018-317293

2018

Cited 111 times

Performance of colorectal cancer screening in the European Union Member States: data from the second European screening report

Objective To present comparative data about the performance of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes in the European Union Member States (EU MSs). Design Cross-sectional study. We analysed key performance indicators—participation rate, positivity rate (PR), detection rate (DR) and positive predictive value for adenomas and CRC—based on the aggregated quantitative data collected for the second EU screening report. We derived crude and pooled (through a random effects model) estimates to describe and compare trends across different MSs/regions and screening protocols. Results Participation rate was higher in countries adopting faecal immunochemical test (FIT) (range: 22.8%–71.3%) than in those using guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) (range 4.5%–66.6%), and it showed a positive correlation (ρ=0.842, p<0.001) with participation in breast cancer screening in the same areas. Screening performance showed a large variability. Compliance with referral for colonoscopy (total colonoscopy (TC)) assessment ranged between 64% and 92%; TC completion rate ranged between 92% and 99%. PR and DR of advanced adenomas and CRC were higher in FIT, as compared with gFOBT programmes, and independent of the protocol among men, older subjects and those performing their first screening. Conclusions The variability in the results of quality indicators across population-based screening programmes highlights the importance of continuous monitoring, as well as the need to promote quality improvement efforts, as recommended in the EU guidelines. The implementation of monitoring systems, ensuring availability of data for the entire process, together with initiatives aimed to enhance reproducibility of histology and quality of endoscopy, represent a priority in screening programmes management.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31527

2018

Cited 104 times

Global burden of cutaneous melanoma attributable to ultraviolet radiation in 2012

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is a strong and ubiquitous risk factor for cutaneous melanoma, emitted naturally by the sun but also artificial sources. To shed light on the potential impact of interventions seeking to reduce exposure to UVR in both high and low risk populations, we quantified the number of cutaneous melanomas attributable to UVR worldwide. Population attributable fractions and numbers of new melanoma cases in adults due to ambient UVR were calculated by age and sex for 153 countries by comparing the current melanoma burden with historical data, i.e ., the melanoma burden observed in a population with minimal exposure to UVR. Secondary analyses were performed using contemporary melanoma incidence rates in dark‐skinned African populations with low UVR susceptibility as reference. Globally, an estimated 168,000 new melanoma cases were attributable to excess UVR in 2012, corresponding to 75.7% of all new melanoma cases and 1.2% of all new cancer cases. This burden was concentrated in very highly developed countries with 149,000 attributable cases and was most pronounced in Oceania, where 96% of all melanomas (representing 9.3% of the total cancer burden) were attributable to excess UVR. There would be approximately 151,000 fewer melanoma cases worldwide were incidence rates in every population equivalent to those observed in selected low‐risk (dark‐skinned, heavily pigmented) reference populations. These findings underline the need for public health action, an increasing awareness of melanoma and its risk factors, and the need to promote changes in behavior that decrease sun exposure at all ages.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002081

2016

Cited 102 times

Duration of Adulthood Overweight, Obesity, and Cancer Risk in the Women’s Health Initiative: A Longitudinal Study from the United States

Background High body mass index (BMI) has become the leading risk factor of disease burden in high-income countries. While recent studies have suggested that the risk of cancer related to obesity is mediated by time, insights into the dose-response relationship and the cumulative impact of overweight and obesity during the life course on cancer risk remain scarce. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the impact of adulthood overweight and obesity duration on the risk of cancer in a large cohort of postmenopausal women. Methods and Findings Participants from the observational study of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) with BMI information from at least three occasions during follow-up, free of cancer at baseline, and with complete covariate information were included (n = 73,913). Trajectories of BMI across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), obesity duration (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), and weighted cumulative overweight and obese years, which take into account the degree of overweight and obesity over time (a measure similar to pack-years of cigarette smoking), were calculated using predicted BMIs. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to determine the cancer risk associated with overweight and obesity duration. In secondary analyses, the influence of important effect modifiers and confounders, such as smoking status, postmenopausal hormone use, and ethnicity, was assessed. A longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of all obesity-related cancers (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-y increment: 1.07, 95% CI 1.06–1.09). For postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancer, every 10-y increase in adulthood overweight duration was associated with a 5% and 17% increase in risk, respectively. On adjusting for intensity of overweight, these figures rose to 8% and 37%, respectively. Risks of postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancer related to overweight duration were much more pronounced in women who never used postmenopausal hormones. This study has limitations because some of the anthropometric information was obtained from retrospective self-reports. Furthermore, data from longitudinal studies with long-term follow-up and repeated anthropometric measures are typically subject to missing data at various time points, which was also the case in this study. Yet, this limitation was partially overcome by using growth curve models, which enabled us to impute data at missing time points for each participant. Conclusions In summary, this study showed that a longer duration of overweight and obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing several forms of cancer. Furthermore, the degree of overweight experienced during adulthood seemed to play an important role in the risk of developing cancer, especially for endometrial cancer. Although the observational nature of our study precludes inferring causality or making clinical recommendations, our findings suggest that reducing overweight duration in adulthood could reduce cancer risk and that obesity prevention is important from early onset. If this is true, health care teams should recognize the potential of obesity management in cancer prevention and that excess body weight in women is important to manage regardless of the age of the patient.

DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30411-x

2018

Cited 92 times

Effect on longevity of one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030: a global analysis of the Sustainable Development Goal health target

BackgroundTo curb the rising global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include a target to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by a third by 2030. A quantitative assessment of the effect on longevity of meeting this target is one of the many important measures needed to advocate and inform national disease control policies. We did a global analysis to estimate improvements in average expected years lived between 30 and 70 years of age that would result from meeting the SDG target.MethodsWe estimated age-specific mortality in 183 countries in 2015, for the four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes) and all NCDs combined, using data from WHO Global Health Estimates. We then estimated the potential gains in average expected years lived between 30 and 70 years of age (LE[30–70)) by eliminating all or a third of premature mortality from specific causes of death in countries grouped by World Bank income groups. The feasibility of reducing mortality to the targeted level over 15 years was also assessed on the basis of historical mortality trends from 2000 to 2015.FindingsReducing a third of premature mortality from NCDs over 15 years is feasible in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, but remains challenging in countries with lower income levels. National longevity will improve if this target is met, corresponding to an average gain in LE[30–70) of 0·64 years worldwide from reduced premature mortality for the four major NCDs and 0·80 years for all NCDs. According to major NCD type, the largest gains attributable to cardiovascular diseases would be in lower-middle-income countries (a gain of 0·45 years), whereas gains attributable to cancer would be in low-income countries (0·33 years).InterpretationA one-third reduction in premature mortality from the major NCDs in 2015–30 would have substantial effects on longevity. High-level political commitments to effective and equitable national surveillance and prioritised prevention, early detection, and treatment programmes tailored to the major NCD types are needed urgently in lower-resourced settings if this SDG target is to be met by 2030.FundingNone.

DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2017.106

2017

Cited 89 times

Comparison of general obesity and measures of body fat distribution in older adults in relation to cancer risk: meta-analysis of individual participant data of seven prospective cohorts in Europe

We evaluated the associations of anthropometric indicators of general obesity (body mass index, BMI), an established risk factor of various cancer, and body fat distribution (waist circumference, WC; hip circumference, HC; and waist-to-hip ratio, WHR), which may better reflect metabolic complications of obesity, with total obesity-related and site-specific (colorectal and postmenopausal breast) cancer incidence. This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02–1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04–1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00–1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer (Pinteraction<0.001), where never HT users showed an ∼20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users. BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(18)30423-6

2018

Cited 89 times

Changing geographical patterns and trends in cancer incidence in children and adolescents in Europe, 1991–2010 (Automated Childhood Cancer Information System): a population-based study

A deceleration in the increase in cancer incidence in children and adolescents has been reported in several national and regional studies in Europe. Based on a large database representing 1·3 billion person-years over the period 1991-2010, we provide a consolidated report on cancer incidence trends at ages 0-19 years.We invited all population-based cancer registries operating in European countries to participate in this population-based registry study. We requested a listing of individual records of cancer cases, including sex, age, date of birth, date of cancer diagnosis, tumour sequence number, primary site, morphology, behaviour, and the most valid basis of diagnosis. We also requested population counts in each calendar year by sex and age for the registration area, from official national sources, and specific information about the covered area and registration practices. An eligible registry could become a contributor if it provided quality data for all complete calendar years in the period 1991-2010. Incidence rates and the average annual percentage change with 95% CIs were reported for all cancers and major diagnostic groups, by region and overall, separately for children (age 0-14 years) and adolescents (age 15-19 years). We examined and quantified the stability of the trends with joinpoint analyses.For the years 1991-2010, 53 registries in 19 countries contributed a total of 180 335 unique cases. We excluded 15 162 (8·4%) of 180 335 cases due to differing practices of registration, and considered the quality indicators for the 165 173 cases included to be satisfactory. The average annual age-standardised incidence was 137·5 (95% CI 136·7-138·3) per million person-years and incidence increased significantly by 0·54% (0·44-0·65) per year in children (age 0-14 years) with no change in trend. In adolescents, the combined European incidence was 176·2 (174·4-178·0) per million person-years based on all 35 138 eligible cases and increased significantly by 0·96% (0·73-1·19) per year, although recent changes in rates among adolescents suggest a deceleration in this increasing trend. We observed temporal variations in trends by age group, geographical region, and diagnostic group. The combined age-standardised incidence of leukaemia based on 48 458 cases in children was 46·9 (46·5-47·3) per million person-years and increased significantly by 0·66% (0·48-0·84) per year. The average overall incidence of leukaemia in adolescents was 23·6 (22·9-24·3) per million person-years, based on 4702 cases, and the average annual change was 0·93% (0·49-1·37). We also observed increasing incidence of lymphoma in adolescents (average annual change 1·04% [0·65-1·44], malignant CNS tumours in children (average annual change 0·49% [0·20-0·77]), and other tumours in both children (average annual change 0·56 [0·40-0·72]) and adolescents (average annual change 1·17 [0·82-1·53]).Improvements in the diagnosis and registration of cancers over time could partly explain the observed increase in incidence, although some changes in underlying putative risk factors cannot be excluded. Cancer incidence trends in this young population require continued monitoring at an international level.Federal Ministry of Health of the Federal German Government, the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

DOI: 10.2471/blt.15.164384

2016

Cited 83 times

An assessment of GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence

To assess the validity of the GLOBOCAN methods for deriving national estimates of cancer incidence.We obtained incidence and mortality data from Norway by region, year of diagnosis, cancer site, sex and 5-year age group for the period 1983-2012 from the NORDCAN database. Estimates for the year 2010 were derived using nine different methods from GLOBOCAN. These included the projection of national historical rates, the use of regional proxies and the combination of national mortality data with mortality to incidence ratios or relative survival proportions. We then compared the national estimates with recorded cancer incidence data.Differences between the estimates derived using different methods varied by cancer site and sex. Methods based on projections performed better where major changes in recent trends were absent. Methods based on mortality data performed less well for cancers associated with small numbers of deaths and for cancers detectable by screening. In countries with longstanding cancer registries of high quality, regional-based, or trends-based incidence estimates perform reasonably well in comparison with recorded incidence.Although the performance of the GLOBOCAN methods varies by cancer site and sex in this study, the results emphasize a need for more high-quality population-based cancer registries - either regional or, where practical and feasible, national registries - to describe cancer patterns and trends for planning cancer control priorities.Évaluer la validité des méthodes GLOBOCAN pour établir des estimations nationales de l'incidence du cancer.Nous avons recueilli les données de la Norvège sur l'incidence et la mortalité par région, année de diagnostic, siège du cancer, sexe et tranche d'âge de 5 ans pour la période 1983–2012 dans la base de données NORDCAN. Les estimations pour l'année 2010 ont été établies suivant neuf méthodes GLOBOCAN différentes, dont l'extrapolation à partir de taux nationaux passés, l'utilisation d'indicateurs régionaux et la combinaison de données nationales sur la mortalité aux rapports mortalité/incidence ou aux taux de survie relatifs. Nous avons ensuite comparé les estimations nationales aux données enregistrées sur l'incidence du cancer.Les estimations obtenues suivant différentes méthodes variaient selon le siège du cancer et le sexe. Les méthodes consistant en une extrapolation donnaient de meilleurs résultats en l'absence de changement majeur des tendances récentes. Les méthodes utilisant les données sur la mortalité s'avéraient moins fiables pour les cancers associés à un faible nombre de décès et les cancers détectables par dépistage. Dans les pays qui tenaient depuis longtemps des registres du cancer de qualité, les estimations de l'incidence d'après les indicateurs régionaux ou les tendances étaient plutôt fiables par rapport à l'incidence enregistrée.Bien que, dans cette étude, la fiabilité des méthodes GLOBOCAN varie selon le siège du cancer et le sexe, les résultats révèlent la nécessité de tenir davantage de registres du cancer de qualité – registres régionaux ou, lorsque cela est faisable, nationaux – afin de décrire les profils et tendances en matière de cancer et de planifier les priorités de lutte contre cette maladie.Evaluar la validez de los métodos GLOBOCAN para obtener estimaciones nacionales de la incidencia de cáncer.Se obtuvieron datos sobre la incidencia y mortalidad en Noruega por regiones, año de diagnóstico, localización del cáncer, sexo y grupos de edades de cinco años durante el periodo comprendido entre 1983 y 2012 de la base de datos NORDCAN. Las estimaciones del año 2010 se obtuvieron utilizando nueve métodos diferentes de GLOBOCAN. Entre ellos se encontraban la proyección de tasas nacionales históricas, el uso de indicadores regionales y la combinación de datos de mortalidad nacionales con coeficientes de incidencia o porcentajes de supervivencia relativos. Posteriormente, se compararon las estimaciones nacionales con los datos de incidencia de cáncer registrados.Las diferencias entre las estimaciones obtenidas utilizando distintos métodos variaron según la localización del cáncer y el sexo. Los métodos basados en las proyecciones mostraron mejores resultados cuando se observó una ausencia de cambios importantes en las últimas tendencias. Los métodos basados en los datos de mortalidad obtuvieron peores resultados en relación con los cánceres asociados a un menor número de fallecimientos y con los cánceres detectables en revisiones. En los países con registros de cáncer prolongados de alta calidad, las estimaciones de incidencia por regiones o por tendencias muestran resultados razonablemente buenos, en comparación con las incidencias registradas.A pesar de que en este estudio el rendimiento de los métodos GLOBOCAN varía según la localización del cáncer y el sexo, los resultados destacan la necesidad de obtener registros de cáncer de mejor calidad y basados en la población (ya sea a nivel regional o, cuando proceda, a nivel nacional) para describir los patrones y tendencias del cáncer para planificar las prioridades para controlarlo.تقييم مدى صحة وسائل اكتشاف السرطان GLOBOCAN للخروج بتقديرات لحالات الإصابة بالسرطان على مستوى البلاد.لقد حصلنا على البيانات المتعلقة بحالات الإصابة والوفيات في النرويج حسب المنطقة وسنة التشخيص وموقع السرطان والجنس وفئات عمرية من 5 سنوات في الفترة من عام 1983 إلى عام 2012 من قاعدة البيانات NORDCAN. وكانت التقديرات الخاصة بعام 2010 مشتقة من استخدام تسع وسائل مختلفة من مشروع GLOBOCAN. وتضمنت هذه الوسائل تقدير المعدلات التاريخية الوطنية، والاستعانة بوكلاء إقليميين، والجمع بين بيانات الوفيات الوطنية مع نسب الوفيات جراء الإصابة أو نسب البقاء على قيد الحياة النسبية. وقمنا بعد ذلك بمقارنة التقديرات الوطنية مع بيانات حالات الإصابة المسجلة بمرض السرطان.تباينت الاختلافات ما بين التقديرات المشتقة باستخدام وسائل مختلفة حسب موقع حدوث الإصابة بالسرطان وجنس المريض. وكان أداء الوسائل المستندة إلى التوقعات أفضل في ظل غياب أي تغييرات كبيرة في النزعات الحديثة. أما أداء الوسائل المستندة إلى بيانات الوفيات فقد كان أقل جودة لحالات الإصابة بالسرطان المرتبطة بأعداد متدنية للوفاة وبأمراض السرطان التي يمكن اكتشافها من خلال الفحص. في البلدان التي يوجد لديها سجلات لحالات الإصابة بمرض السرطان طويلة الأمد وتقوم برصد حالات الإصابة بدقة عالية على أساس إقليمي أو وفقًا للنزعات، تسير التقديرات وفقًا لأسس منطقية بالمقارنة مع حالات الإصابة المسجلة.على الرغم من أن أداء وسائل اكتشاف السرطان GLOBOCAN يتباين حسب موقع الإصابة بالسرطان وجنس المصاب في هذه الدراسة، تؤكد النتائج على الحاجة إلى إقامة سجلات للسرطان بدقة أكبر وقائمة على قطاع السكان – والتي يمكن أن تكون سجلات إقليمية أو وطنية (إذا ما توفرت إمكانية عملية وقابلة للتطبيق لإقامة تلك السجلات الوطنية) – وذلك لوصف أنماط ونزعات السرطان لكي يتم وضع التخطيط اللازم لأولويات السيطرة على السرطان.旨在评估 GLOBOCAN 方法的有效性，从而得出国家癌症发病率估计值。.我们从 NORDCAN 数据库中，获得 1983–2012 年间挪威不同地区、诊断年份、癌症部位、性别以及 5 岁年龄段的发病率和死亡率数据。采用了 9 种不同的 GLOBOCAN 方法，得出 2010 年估计值。这些方法包括推断国家历史比率、使用地区代表示例以及结合国家死亡率数据和死亡率与发病率的比例或相对生存比例。我们随后将国家估计值和记录的癌症发病率数据进行比较。.采用因癌症部位和性别而不同的方法得出的估计值之间也有所差异。如果近期趋势中不存在主要变化，基于推断的方法则更有效。针对死亡率低的癌症或通过筛查可检测出的癌症，采用基于死亡率数据的方法效果不佳。在一些国家，相对于记录的发病率，通过长期高质量的癌症登记，基于地区或基于趋势的发病率估计值效果相当好。.尽管在本研究中，GLOBOCAN 方法的效果因癌症部位和性别而异，但是结果表明为描述癌症类型和趋势，以确定癌症控制工作重点，基于人群的更高质量癌症登记多多益善。这些登记可以是地区登记也可以是实用且可行的国家登记。.Оценить пригодность методов GLOBOCAN для получения национальных прогнозов по заболеваемости раком.В Норвегии из базы данных NORDCAN были получены данные о заболеваемости и смертности, отсортированные по региону, году диагностирования, затронутому органу, полу и возрастным группам в 5-летней разбивке, относящиеся к периоду 1983–2012 гг. Прогнозы на 2010 год были получены с помощью девяти различных методов из базы данных GLOBOCAN. В их число входило проецирование национальных исторических показателей, использование приблизительных показателей по региону и объединение данных о национальной смертности со значениями отношения смертности к заболеваемости или соответствующими пропорциями выживаемости. Затем было проведено сравнение национальных прогнозов с зарегистрированными данными о заболеваемости раком.Прогнозы, полученные с помощью разных методов, различались в зависимости от пораженного органа и пола пациента. Методы на основе проецирования позволили получить более точные данные, если в последних тенденциях отсутствовали значительные изменения. Методы, основанные на данных о смертности, позволили получить менее точные прогнозы для случаев заболевания раком, связанных с меньшим количеством летальных исходов, и для случаев заболевания, когда рак можно было выявить с помощью скринингового обследования. В странах, в которых в течение длительного времени существуют высококачественные реестры раковых заболеваний, прогнозирование заболеваемости на основании региональных данных или тенденций позволяло получить более или менее адекватные показатели по сравнению с зарегистрированной заболеваемостью.Хотя в данном исследовании эффективность методов GLOBOCAN различалась в зависимости от пораженного органа и пола пациента, его результаты свидетельствуют о необходимости в дополнительных высококачественных реестрах раковых заболеваний среди населения на региональном или, если это целесообразно и практически осуществимо, на национальном уровне, чтобы описать модели и тенденции раковых заболеваний для определения приоритетов в борьбе с раком.

DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2017.12.013

2018

Cited 80 times

Productivity losses due to premature mortality from cancer in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS): A population-based comparison

Over two-thirds of the world’s cancer deaths occur in economically developing countries; however, the societal costs of cancer have rarely been assessed in these settings. Our aim was to estimate the value of productivity lost in 2012 due to cancer-related premature mortality in the major developing economies of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). We applied an incidence-based method using the human capital approach. We used annual adult cancer deaths from GLOBOCAN2012 to estimate the years of productive life lost between cancer death and pensionable age in each country, valued using national and international data for wages, and workforce statistics. Sensitivity analyses examined various methodological assumptions. The total cost of lost productivity due to premature cancer mortality in the BRICS countries in 2012 was $46·3 billion, representing 0·33% of their combined gross domestic product. The largest total productivity loss was in China ($28 billion), while South Africa had the highest cost per cancer death ($101,000). Total productivity losses were greatest for lung cancer in Brazil, the Russian Federation and South Africa; liver cancer in China; and lip and oral cavity cancers in India. Locally-tailored strategies are required to reduce the economic burden of cancer in developing economies. Focussing on tobacco control, vaccination programs and cancer screening, combined with access to adequate treatment, could yield significant gains for both public health and economic performance of the BRICS countries.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-320625

2020

Cited 77 times

Colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries 2010–2014: variation by age and stage at diagnosis (the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project)

Objectives As part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) SURVMARK-2 project, we provide the most recent estimates of colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries by age and stage at diagnosis. Methods Data from 386 870 patients diagnosed during 2010–2014 from 19 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were analysed. 1-year and 5-year net survival from colon and rectal cancer were estimated by stage at diagnosis, age and country, Results (One1-year) and 5-year net survival varied between (77.1% and 87.5%) 59.1% and 70.9% and (84.8% and 90.0%) 61.6% and 70.9% for colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Survival was consistently higher in Australia, Canada and Norway, with smaller proportions of patients with metastatic disease in Canada and Australia. International differences in (1-year) and 5-year survival were most pronounced for regional and distant colon cancer ranging between (86.0% and 94.1%) 62.5% and 77.5% and (40.7% and 56.4%) 8.0% and 17.3%, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for rectal cancer. Stage distribution of colon and rectal cancers by age varied across countries with marked survival differences for patients with metastatic disease and diagnosed at older ages (irrespective of stage). Conclusions Survival disparities for colon and rectal cancer across high-income countries are likely explained by earlier diagnosis in some countries and differences in treatment for regional and distant disease, as well as older age at diagnosis. Differences in cancer registration practice and different staging systems across countries may have impacted the comparisons.

DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0349-9_ch2

2015

Cited 75 times

The Changing Global Burden of Cancer: Transitions in Human Development and Implications for Cancer Prevention and Control

DOI: 10.1093/neuonc/now166

2016

Cited 75 times

Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence

Cancers of the brain and CNS constitute a group of rare and heterogeneous tumors. Increasing incidence in Western populations has been linked to improvements in diagnostic technology, although interpretation is hampered by changes in diagnosis and reporting. The present study examines geographic and temporal variations in incidence rates of brain and CNS cancers worldwide.Data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were used, including 96 registries in 39 countries. We used Joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percentage change and its 95% CI.Globally, a large variability in the magnitude of the diagnosis of new cases of brain and CNS cancer was found, with a 5-fold difference between the highest rates (mainly in Europe) and the lowest (mainly in Asia). Increasing rates of brain and CNS cancer were found in South America, namely in Ecuador, Brazil, and Colombia; in eastern Europe (Czech Republic and Russia), in southern Europe (Slovenia), and in the 3 Baltic countries. Trends were similar between sexes, although decreasing trends in men and women were seen in Japan and New Zealand.Important regional variations in brain and CNS cancers exist, and given an increasing burden and risk worldwide, there is a need for further etiological research that focuses on the elucidation of environmental risk. The trends are sufficiently complex and diffuse, however, to warrant a cautious approach to interpretation.

DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.07.013

2016

Cited 74 times

Cancer patterns and trends in Central and South America

Cancer burden is increasing in Central and South America (CSA). We describe the current burden of cancer in CSA. We obtained regional and national-level cancer incidence data from 48 population-based registries (13 countries) and nation-wide cancer mortality data from the WHO (18 countries). We estimated world population age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 person-years. The leading cancers diagnosed were prostate, lung, breast, cervix, colorectal, and stomach, which were also the primary causes of cancer mortality. Countries of high/very high human development index (HDI) in the region experienced a high burden of prostate and breast cancer while medium HDI countries had a high burden of stomach and cervical cancers. Between countries, incidence and mortality from all cancers combined varied by 2–3-fold. French Guyana, Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina had the highest incidence of all cancers while Uruguay, Cuba, Argentina, and Chile had the highest mortality. Incidence of colorectum, prostate and thyroid cancers increased in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Costa Rica from 1997 to 2008, while lung, stomach and cervical cancers decreased. CSA carries a double-burden of cancer, with elevated rates of infection- and lifestyle-related cancers. Encountered variation in cancer rates between countries may reflect differences in registration practices, healthcare access, and public awareness. Resource-dependent interventions to prevent, early diagnose, and treat cancer remain an urgent priority. There is an overwhelming need to improve the quality and coverage of cancer registration to guide and evaluate future cancer control policies and programs.

DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(18)30897-0

2019

Cited 68 times

Essential TNM: a registry tool to reduce gaps in cancer staging information

<h2>Summary</h2> Accurate information on the extent of disease around the time of diagnosis is an important component of cancer care, in defining disease prognosis, and evaluating national and international cancer control policies. However, the collection of stage data by population-based cancer registries remains a challenge in both high-income and low and middle-income countries. We emphasise the lack of availability and comparability of staging information in many population-based cancer registries and propose Essential TNM, a simplified staging system for cancer registries when information on full Tumour, Node, Metastasis (TNM) is absent. Essential TNM aims at staging cancer in its most advanced disease form by summarising the extent of disease in the order of distant metastasis (M), regional lymph node involvement (N), and tumour size or extension, or both (T). Flowcharts and rules have been developed for coding these elements in breast, cervix, prostate, and colon cancers, and combining them into stage groups (I–IV) that correspond to those obtained by full TNM staging. Essential TNM is comparable to the Union for International Cancer Control TNM stage groups and is an alternative to providing staging information by the population-based cancer registries that complies with the objectives of the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development.

DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01791-2019

2019

Cited 59 times

International trends in COPD mortality, 1995–2017

<b>In our international study over 1995–2017, COPD mortality rates declined in most countries. Yet, in females, they remained stable in North America and increased in six countries in Europe. The number of deaths increased or remained stable in most countries.</b>http://bit.ly/2niUQ8d

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33767

2021

Cited 44 times

Comparison of liver cancer incidence and survival by subtypes across seven high‐income countries

Abstract International comparison of liver cancer survival has been hampered due to varying standards and degrees for morphological verification and differences in coding practices. This article aims to compare liver cancer survival across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership's (ICBP) jurisdictions whilst trying to ensure that the estimates are comparable through a range of sensitivity analyses. Liver cancer incidence data from 21 jurisdictions in 7 countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) were obtained from population‐based registries for 1995‐2014. Cases were categorised based on histological classification, age‐groups, basis of diagnosis and calendar period. Age‐standardised incidence rate (ASR) per 100 000 and net survival at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis were estimated. Liver cancer incidence rates increased over time across all ICBP jurisdictions, particularly for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the largest relative increase in the United Kingdom, increasing from 1.3 to 4.4 per 100 000 person‐years between 1995 and 2014. Australia had the highest age‐standardised 1‐year and 3‐year net survival for all liver cancers combined (48.7% and 28.1%, respectively) in the most recent calendar period, which was still true for morphologically verified tumours when making restrictions to ensure consistent coding and classification. Survival from liver cancers is poor in all countries. The incidence of HCC is increasing alongside the proportion of nonmicroscopically verified cases over time. Survival estimates for all liver tumours combined should be interpreted in this context. Care is needed to ensure that international comparisons are performed on appropriately comparable patients, with careful consideration of coding practice variations.

DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00406-0

2023

Cited 12 times

Quantitative estimates of preventable and treatable deaths from 36 cancers worldwide: a population-based study

<h2>Summary</h2><h3>Background</h3> Cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality globally. This study estimates premature deaths at ages 30–69 years and distinguishes these as deaths that are preventable (avertable through primary or secondary prevention) or treatable (avertable through curative treatment) in 185 countries worldwide. <h3>Methods</h3> For this population-based study, estimated cancer deaths by country, cancer, sex, and age groups were retrieved from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Crude and age-adjusted cancer-specific years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated for 36 cancer types. <h3>Findings</h3> Of the estimated all-ages cancer burden of 265·6 million YLLs, 182·8 million (68·8%) YLLs were due to premature deaths from cancer globally in 2020, with 124·3 million (68·0%) preventable and 58·5 million (32·0%) treatable. Countries with low, medium, or high human development index (HDI) levels all had greater proportions of YLLs at premature ages than very high HDI countries (68·9%, 77·0%, and 72·2% <i>vs</i> 57·7%, respectively). Lung cancer was the leading contributor to preventable premature YLLs in medium to very high HDI countries (17·4% of all cancers, or 29·7 million of 171·3 million YLLs), whereas cervical cancer led in low HDI countries (26·3% of all preventable cancers, or 1·83 million of 6·93 million YLLs). Colorectal and breast cancers were major treatable cancers across all four tiers of HDI (25·5% of all treatable cancers in combination, or 14·9 million of 58·5 million YLLs). <h3>Interpretation</h3> Alongside tailored programmes of early diagnosis and screening linked to timely and comprehensive treatment, greater investments in risk factor reduction and vaccination are needed to address premature cancer inequalities. <h3>Funding</h3> Erasmus Mundus Exchange Programme and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. <h3>Translations</h3> For the German, French, Spanish and Chinese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2008.11.030

2009

Cited 110 times

Multiple tumours in survival estimates

In international comparisons of cancer registry based survival it is common practice to restrict the analysis to first primary tumours and exclude multiple cancers. The probability of correctly detecting subsequent cancers depends on the registry's running time, which results in different proportions of excluded patients and may lead to biased comparisons. We evaluated the impact on the age-standardised relative survival estimates of also including multiple primary tumours. Data from 2,919,023 malignant cancers from 69 European cancer registries participating in the EUROCARE-4 collaborative study were used. A total of 183,683 multiple primary tumours were found, with an overall proportion of 6.3% over all the considered cancers, ranging from 0.4% (Naples, Italy) to 12.9% (Iceland). The proportion of multiple tumours varied greatly by type of tumour, being higher for those with high incidence and long survival (breast, prostate and colon-rectum). Five-year relative survival was lower when including patients with multiple cancers. For all cancers combined the average difference was -0.4 percentage points in women and -0.7 percentage points in men, and was greater for older registries. Inclusion of multiple tumours led to lower survival in 44 out of 45 cancer sites analysed, with the greatest differences found for larynx (-1.9%), oropharynx (-1.5%), and penis (-1.3%). Including multiple primary tumours in survival estimates for international comparison is advisable because it reduces the bias due to different observation periods, age, registration quality and completeness of registration. The general effect of inclusion is to reduce survival estimates by a variable amount depending on the proportion of multiple primaries and cancer site.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.026

2010

Cited 103 times

Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables and future cancer incidence in selected European countries

Cancer is one of the major causes of death in western countries. Fruit and vegetable consumption may reduce the risk of cancers of the oropharynx, oesophagus, lung, stomach and colorectum. We investigated the potential effect of interventions aimed at increasing the intake of fruits and vegetables to the recommended level (500 g/d) on future cancer incidence in Europe. Data on cancer incidence and daily intake of fruit and vegetables were compiled for France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. We also performed a meta-analysis of European observational studies to arrive at a quantitative estimate on the association between fruit and vegetable intake and cancer risk. Predictions on the future cancer incidence were modelled using PREVENT 3.01. Our study predicted 212,000 fruit- and vegetable-related cancer cases in these countries in 2050, out of which 398 (0.19%) might be prevented if the 500 g/d fruit and vegetable intake were achieved in the aforementioned countries. The largest absolute impact was observed for lung cancer with 257 (out of 136,517) preventable cases if the intervention was successfully implemented. Sweden would benefit the most from intervention to increase fruit and vegetable consumption with a 2% reduction in expected cases. Increasing fruit and vegetable consumption has a small impact on reducing the burden of cancer in Europe. Health impact assessment tools such as PREVENT can provide the basis for decision making in chronic disease prevention.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.052

2010

Cited 86 times

Interpreting the epidemiological evidence linking obesity and cancer: A framework for population-attributable risk estimations in Europe

Standard approaches to estimating population-attributable risk (PAR) include modelling estimates of exposure prevalence and relative risk. Here, we examine the associations between body mass index (BMI) and cancer risk and how effect modifications of these associations impact on PAR estimates. In 2008, sex- and population-specific risk estimates were determined for associations with BMI in a standardised meta-analysis for 20 cancer types. Since then, refinements of these estimates have emerged: (i) absence of menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) is associated with elevated BMI associations in post-menopausal breast, endometrial and ovarian cancers; (ii) current smoking attenuates the BMI associations in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, lung and pancreatic cancers; (iii) prostate screening attenuates BMI associations when all prostate cancers are considered together; and (iv) BMI is differentially associated with different histological subtypes within the same cancer group. Using secondary analyses of the aforementioned meta-analysis, we show 2–3-fold shifts in PAR estimations for breast and endometrial cancers depending on the MHT usage in European countries. We also critically examine how to best handle exposures (in this example, BMI distributions) and relative risk estimates in PAR models, and argue in favour of a counterfactual approach based around BMI means. From these observations, we develop a research framework in which to optimally evaluate future trends in numbers of new cancers attributable to excess BMI. Overall, this framework gives conservative estimates for PAR – nonetheless, the numbers of avoidable cancers across Europe through avoidance of excess weight are substantial.

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-12-125

2012

Cited 64 times

Estimating and validating disability-adjusted life years at the global level: a methodological framework for cancer

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) link data on disease occurrence to health outcomes, and they are a useful aid in establishing country-specific agendas regarding cancer control. The variables required to compute DALYs are however multiple and not readily available in many countries. We propose a methodology that derives global DALYs and validate variables and DALYs based on data from various cancer registries.We estimated DALYs for four countries (Norway, Bulgaria, India and Uganda) within each category of the human development index (HDI). The following sources (indicators) were used: Globocan2008 (incidence and mortality), various cancer registries (proportion cured, proportion treated and duration of disease), treatment guidelines (duration of treatment), specific burden of disease studies (sequelae and disability weights), alongside expert opinion. We obtained country-specific population estimates and identified resource levels using the HDI, DALYs are computed as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disabilities.Using mortality:incidence ratios to estimate country-specific survival, and by applying the human development index we derived country-specific estimates of the proportion cured and the proportion treated. The fit between the estimates and observed data from the cancer registries was relatively good. The final DALY estimates were similar to those computed using observed values in Norway, and in WHO's earlier global burden of disease study. Marked cross-country differences in the patterns of DALYs by cancer sites were observed. In Norway and Bulgaria, breast, colorectal, prostate and lung cancer were the main contributors to DALYs, representing 54% and 45%, respectively, of the totals. These cancers contributed only 27% and 18%, respectively, of total DALYs in India and Uganda.Our approach resulted in a series of variables that can be used to estimate country-specific DALYs, enabling global estimates of DALYs and international comparisons that support priorities in cancer control.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2016.07.022

2016

Cited 52 times

Central obesity increases risk of breast cancer irrespective of menopausal and hormonal receptor status in women of South Asian Ethnicity

Current evidence suggests that the relationship between obesity and breast cancer (BC) risk may vary between ethnic groups.A total of 1633 BC cases and 1504 controls were enrolled in hospital-based case-control study in Mumbai, India, from 2009 to 2013. Along with detailed questionnaire, we collected anthropometric measurements on all participants. We used unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk associated with anthropometry measurements, stratified on tumour subtype and menopausal status.Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) of ≥0.95 was strongly associated with risk of BC compared to WHR ≤0.84 in both premenopausal (OR = 4.3; 95% CI: 2.9-6.3) and postmenopausal women (OR = 3.4; 95% CI: 2.4-4.8) after adjustment for body mass index (BMI). Premenopausal women with a BMI ≥30 were at lower risk compared to women with normal BMI (OR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). A similar protective effect was observed in women who were postmenopausal for <10 years (OR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4-0.9) but not in women who were postmenopausal for ≥10 years (OR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-3.3). Overweight and obese women (BMI: 25-29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m(2), respectively) were at increased BC risk irrespective of menopausal status if their WHR ≥0.95. Central obesity (measured in terms of WC and WHR) increased the risk of both premenopausal and postmenopausal BCs irrespective of hormone receptor (HR) status.Central obesity appears to be a key risk factor for BC irrespective of menopausal or HR status in Indian women with no history of hormone replacement therapy.

DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2017.01.009

2017

Cited 52 times

Profile of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The need for action

Many countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are undergoing marked demographic and socioeconomic transitions that are increasing the cancer burden in region. We sought to examine the national cancer incidence and mortality profiles as a support to regional cancer control planning in the EMR.GLOBOCAN 2012 data were used to estimate cancer incidence and mortality by country, cancer type, sex and age in 22 EMR countries. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) using direct method of standardization.The cancer incidence and mortality rates vary considerably between countries in the EMR. Incidence rates were highest in Lebanon (204 and 193 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively). Mortality rates were highest in Lebanon (119) and Egypt (121) among males and in Somalia (117) among females. The profile of common cancers differs substantially by sex. For females, breast cancer is the most common cancer in all 22 countries, followed by cervical cancer, which ranks high only in the lower-income countries in the region. For males, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in combination represent almost 30% of the cancer burden in countries that have attained very high levels of human development.The most common cancers are largely amenable to preventive strategies by primary and/or secondary prevention, hence a need for effective interventions tackling lifestyle risk factors and infections. The high mortality observed from breast and cervical cancer highlights the need to break the stigmas and improve awareness surrounding these cancers.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2018.09.009

2018

Cited 52 times

Cancers related to lifestyle and environmental factors in France in 2015

Background Cancer is a major cause of premature illness and death in France. To quantify how cancer prevention could reduce the burden, we present estimates of the contribution of lifestyle and environmental risk factors to cancer incidence in France in 2015, comparing these with other high-income countries. Method Prevalences of, and relative risks for tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, inadequate diet, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, exogenous hormones, suboptimal breastfeeding, infectious agents, ionising radiation, air pollution, ultraviolet exposure, occupational exposures, arsenic in drinking water and indoor benzene were obtained to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the number of attributable cancers by the cancer site and sex. Results In 2015, 41% (or 142,000 of 346,000) of all new cancers diagnosed in France could be attributed to the aforementioned risk factors. The numbers and PAF were slightly higher in men than in women (84,000 versus 58,000 cases and 44% versus 37%, respectively). Smoking (PAF: 20%), alcohol consumption (PAF: 8%), dietary factors (PAF: 5%) and excess weight (PAF: 5%) were the most important factors. Infections and occupational exposures each contributed to an additional 4% of the cancer cases in 2015. Conclusion Today, two-fifths of cancers in France are attributable to preventable risk factors. The variations in the key amenable factors responsible in France relative to other economically similar countries highlight the need for tailored approaches to cancer education and prevention. Reducing smoking and alcohol consumption and the adoption of healthier diet and body weight remain important targets to reduce the increasing number of new cancer patients in France in the decades to follow.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj.j2765

2017

Cited 50 times

Benchmarking life expectancy and cancer mortality: global comparison with cardiovascular disease 1981-2010

<b>Objective</b> To quantify the impact of cancer (all cancers combined and major sites) compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) on longevity worldwide during 1981-2010. <b>Design</b> Retrospective demographic analysis using aggregated data. <b>Setting</b> National civil registration systems in member states of the World Health Organization. <b>Participants</b> 52 populations with moderate to high quality data on cause specific mortality. <b>Main outcome measures</b> Disease specific contributions to changes in life expectancy in ages 40-84 (LE<sub>40-84</sub>) over time in populations grouped by two levels of Human Development Index (HDI) values. <b>Results</b> Declining CVD mortality rates during 1981-2010 contributed to, on average, over half of the gains in LE<sub>40-84</sub>; the corresponding gains were 2.3 (men) and 1.7 (women) years, and 0.5 (men) and 0.8 (women) years in very high and medium and high HDI populations, respectively. Declines in cancer mortality rates contributed to, on average, 20% of the gains in LE<sub>40-84,</sub> or 0.8 (men) and 0.5 (women) years in very high HDI populations, and to over 10% or 0.2 years (both sexes) in medium and high HDI populations. Declining lung cancer mortality rates brought about the largest LE<sub>40-84</sub> gain in men in very high HDI populations (up to 0.7 years in the Netherlands), whereas in medium and high HDI populations its contribution was smaller yet still positive. Among women, declines in breast cancer mortality rates were largely responsible for the improvement in longevity, particularly among very high HDI populations (up to 0.3 years in the United Kingdom). In contrast, losses in LE<sub>40-84</sub> were observed in many medium and high HDI populations as a result of increasing breast cancer mortality rates. <b>Conclusions</b> The control of CVD has led to substantial gains in LE<sub>40-84</sub> worldwide. The inequality in improvement in longevity attributed to declining cancer mortality rates reflects inequities in implementation of cancer control, particularly in less resourced populations and in women. Global actions are needed to revitalize efforts for cancer control, with a specific focus on less resourced countries.

DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-321089

2020

Cited 50 times

International trends in oesophageal cancer survival by histological subtype between 1995 and 2014

Introduction Survival from oesophageal cancer remains poor, even across high-income countries. Ongoing changes in the epidemiology of the disease highlight the need for survival assessments by its two main histological subtypes, adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Methods The ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, a platform for international comparisons of cancer survival, collected cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995 to 2014, followed until 31 st December 2015, from cancer registries covering seven participating countries with similar access to healthcare (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival alongside incidence rates were calculated by country, subtype, sex, age group and period of diagnosis. Results 111 894 cases of AC and 73 408 cases of SCC were included in the analysis. Marked improvements in survival were observed over the 20-year period in each country, particularly for AC, younger age groups and 1 year after diagnosis. Survival was consistently higher for both subtypes in Australia and Ireland followed by Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, the UK and Canada. During 2010 to 2014, survival was higher for AC compared with SCC, with 1-year survival ranging from 46.9% (Canada) to 54.4% (Ireland) for AC and 39.6% (Denmark) to 53.1% (Australia) for SCC. Conclusion Marked improvements in both oesophageal AC and SCC survival suggest advances in treatment. Less marked improvements 3 years after diagnosis, among older age groups and patients with SCC, highlight the need for further advances in early detection and treatment of oesophageal cancer alongside primary prevention to reduce the overall burden from the disease.

DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djaa069

2020

Cited 49 times

Scaling Up the Surveillance of Childhood Cancer: A Global Roadmap

Abstract The World Health Organization recently launched the Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer aiming to substantially increase survival among children with cancer by 2030. The ultimate goal concerns particularly less developed countries where survival estimates are considerably lower than in high-income countries where children with cancer attain approximately 80% survival. Given the vast gap in high-quality data availability between more and less developed countries, measuring the success of the Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer will also require substantial support to childhood cancer registries to enable them to provide survival data at the population level. Based on our experience acquired at the International Agency for Research on Cancer in global cancer surveillance, we hereby review crucial aspects to consider in the development of childhood cancer registration and present our vision on how the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development can accelerate the measurement of the outcome of children with cancer.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32863

2020

Cited 46 times

Gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancers in the Americas: Incidence and mortality patterns and trends

Trends in gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in populations across the Americas can provide insight into shifting epidemiologic patterns and the current and potential impact of preventative and curative programs. Estimates of gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 were extracted from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) GLOBOCAN database for 185 countries. Recorded registry‐based incidence from 13 countries was extracted from IARCs Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and corresponding national deaths from the WHO mortality database. Among females, the highest estimated incidence for gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancer in the Americas were found in Bolivia (21.0 per 100,000), Chile (11.7) and Peru (6.0). In the US, the highest incidence rates were observed among Hispanics (1.8). In the Chilean population, gallbladder cancer rates declined in both females and males between 1998 and 2012. Rates dropped slightly in Canada, Costa Rica, US Whites and Hispanics in Los Angeles. Gallbladder cancer mortality rates also decreased across the studied countries, although rising trends were observed in Colombia and Canada after 2010. Countries within Southern and Central America tended to have a higher proportion of unspecified biliary tract cancers. In public health terms, the decline in gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality rates is encouraging. However, the slight increase in mortality rates during recent years in Colombia and Canada warrant further attention. Higher proportions of unspecified biliary tract cancers (with correspondingly higher mortality rates) suggest more rigorous pathology procedures may be needed after surgery.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32322

2019

Cited 43 times

The influence of birth cohort and calendar period on global trends in ovarian cancer incidence

Ovarian cancer is the eighth most common cancer in women worldwide and incidence rates vary markedly by world region. Our study provides a comprehensive overview of ovarian cancer incidence trends globally, examining the influence of birth cohort and period of diagnosis on changing risk. We presented current patterns and trends of ovarian cancer incidence until 2012 using data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Contents . The incidence of ovarian cancer is highest in northern and eastern European countries and in northern America. Declining trends were observed in most countries with the exception of a few central and eastern Asian countries. Marked declines were seen in Europe and North America for women aged 50–74 where rates have declined up to 2.4% (95% CI: −3.9, −0.9) annually in Denmark (DNK) over the last decade. Additionally, declines in the incidence rate ratio (IRR) were observed for generations born after the 1930s, with an additional strong period effect seen around 2000 in United States and DNK. In contrast, IRRs increased among younger generations born after the 1950s in Japan and Belarus. Overall, the favorable trends in ovarian cancer incidence is likely due to the increase use of oral contraceptive pills, and changes in the prevalence of other reproductive risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer over the years studied. Changes in disease classifications and cancer registry practices may also partially contribute to the variation in ovarian cancer incidence rates. Thus, continuous cancer surveillance is essential to detect the shifting patterns of ovarian cancer.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065303

2023

Cited 6 times

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040

Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies.For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020.LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau.The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.4837

2024

Global Stage Distribution of Breast Cancer at Diagnosis

Importance Stage at diagnosis is a key prognostic factor for cancer survival. Objective To assess the global distribution of breast cancer stage by country, age group, calendar period, and socioeconomic status using population-based data. Data Sources A systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and registry websites and gray literature was conducted for articles or reports published between January 1, 2000, and June 20, 2022. Study Selection Reports on stage at diagnosis for individuals with primary breast cancer (C50) from a population-based cancer registry were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis Study characteristics and results of eligible studies were independently extracted by 2 pairs of reviewers (J.D.B.F., A.D.A., A.M., R.S., and F.G.). Stage-specific proportions were extracted and cancer registry data quality and risk of bias were assessed. National pooled estimates were calculated for subnational or annual data sets using a hierarchical rule of the most relevant and high-quality data to avoid duplicates. Main Outcomes and Measures The proportion of women with breast cancer by (TNM Classification of Malignant Tumors or the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program [SEER]) stage group. Results Data were available for 2.4 million women with breast cancer from 81 countries. Globally, the proportion of cases with distant metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis was high in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 5.6% to 30.6% and low in North America ranging from 0.0% to 6.0%. The proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease decreased over the past 2 decades from around 3.8% to 35.8% (early 2000s) to 3.2% to 11.6% (2015 onwards), yet stabilization or slight increases were also observed. Older age and lower socioeconomic status had the largest proportion of cases diagnosed with distant metastatic stage ranging from 2.0% to 15.7% among the younger to 4.1% to 33.9% among the oldest age group, and from 1.7% to 8.3% in the least disadvantaged groups to 2.8% to 11.4% in the most disadvantaged groups. Conclusions and Relevance Effective policy and interventions have resulted in decreased proportions of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis in high-income countries, yet inequality persists, which needs to be addressed through increased awareness of breast cancer symptoms and early detection. Improving global coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries, including the collection of standardized stage data, is key to monitoring progress.

DOI: 10.3322/caac.21834

2024

Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries

This article presents global cancer statistics by world region for the year 2022 based on updated estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). There were close to 20 million new cases of cancer in the year 2022 (including nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) alongside 9.7 million deaths from cancer (including NMSC). The estimates suggest that approximately one in five men or women develop cancer in a lifetime, whereas around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it. Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022, responsible for almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally), followed by cancers of the female breast (11.6%), colorectum (9.6%), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (4.9%). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%), and stomach (6.8%) cancers. Breast cancer and lung cancer were the most frequent cancers in women and men, respectively (both cases and deaths). Incidence rates (including NMSC) varied from four-fold to five-fold across world regions, from over 500 in Australia/New Zealand (507.9 per 100,000) to under 100 in Western Africa (97.1 per 100,000) among men, and from over 400 in Australia/New Zealand (410.5 per 100,000) to close to 100 in South-Central Asia (103.3 per 100,000) among women. The authors examine the geographic variability across 20 world regions for the 10 leading cancer types, discussing recent trends, the underlying determinants, and the prospects for global cancer prevention and control. With demographics-based predictions indicating that the number of new cases of cancer will reach 35 million by 2050, investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infection), could avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, bringing huge economic as well as societal dividends to countries over the forthcoming decades.

DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwk084

2007

Cited 79 times

Decreased Risk of Prostate Cancer after Skin Cancer Diagnosis: A Protective Role of Ultraviolet Radiation?

Ultraviolet radiation causes skin cancer but may protect against prostate cancer. The authors hypothesized that skin cancer patients had a lower prostate cancer incidence than the general population. In the southeastern part of the Netherlands, a population-based cohort of male skin cancer patients diagnosed since 1970 (2,620 squamous cell carcinomas, 9,501 basal cell carcinomas, and 1,420 cutaneous malignant melanomas) was followed up for incidence of invasive prostate cancer until January 1, 2005, within the framework of the Eindhoven Cancer Registry. The incidence rates of prostate cancer among skin cancer patients were compared with those in the reference population, resulting in standardized incidence ratios. Skin cancer patients were at decreased risk of developing prostate cancer compared with the general population (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78, 0.99), especially shortly after diagnosis. The risk of advanced prostate cancer was significantly decreased (SIR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.94), indicating a possible antiprogression effect of ultraviolet radiation. Patients with a skin cancer in the chronically ultraviolet radiation-exposed head and neck area (SIR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.73, 0.97) and those diagnosed after the age of 60 years (SIR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.97) had decreased prostate cancer incidence rates. These results support the hypothesis that ultraviolet radiation protects against prostate cancer.

DOI: 10.1007/978-1-59745-416-2_5

2009

Cited 77 times

Epidemiology of Multiple Primary Cancers

Cancer patients have a 20% higher risk of new primary cancer compared with the general population. Approximately one third of cancer survivors aged >60 years were diagnosed more than once with another cancer. As the number of cancer survivors and of older people increases, occurrence of multiple primary cancers is also likely to increase. An increasing interest from epidemiologic and clinical perspectives seems logical. This chapter begins with the risk pattern of multiple cancers in the population of a developed country with high survival rates. Multiple cancers comprise two or more primary cancers occurring in an individual that originate in a primary site or tissue and that are neither an extension, nor a recurrence or metastasis. Studies of multiple cancers have been mainly conducted in population-based settings, and more recently in clinical trials and case control studies leading to further understanding of risk factors for the development of multiple primary cancers. These factors include an inherited predisposition to cancer; the usual carcinogenic or cancer-promoting aspects of lifestyle, hormonal, and environmental factors; treatment of the previous primary cancer; and increased surveillance of cancer survivors. Finally, implication on research strategies and clinical practice are discussed, covering the whole range of epidemiologic approach.

DOI: 10.1002/ijc.22459

2006

Cited 76 times

Excess of cancers in Europe: A study of eleven major cancers amenable to lifestyle change

Abstract Worldwide an estimated 11 million cancer cases were diagnosed in 2002, one quarter being in Europe. We estimated the potential in avoidable numbers and proportions of 11 cancers amenable to prevention (cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus, stomach, colorectal, pancreas, laryngeal, lung, female breast, endometrium, kidney and bladder) in 28 European countries. We assumed that the aggregated rate of 3 countries with lowest incidence to be attainable throughout Europe. The difference between the age‐ and gender‐specific national cancer incidence rates and the lowest rate observed in 2002 was determined and defined as “avoidable.” Of the 1.4 million adult cases of selected cancers and countries within our study, 363,000 (59%) cancers in males and 326,000 (45%) cancers in females were hypothetically avoidable. Among men, the proportion was largest in Hungary (77%) and among women, in Belgium (54%). Assuming that differences in cancer incidence are not attributable to genetic susceptibility or diagnostic activity, about 50% of all cases of these 11 cancers could be potentially avoided, especially by decreased smoking among men. Interventions directed at reducing smoking, obesity and alcohol use as well as increasing physical activity and fruit and vegetable intake are necessary to attain lower incidence rates. It is important to recognize that the actual preventable cancer by eliminating currently known risk factors is somewhat less than we have estimated. © 2006 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckt035

2013

Cited 57 times

Urban greenways have the potential to increase physical activity levels cost-effectively

For many, physical activity has been engineered out of daily life, leading to high levels of sedentariness and obesity. Multi-faceted physical activity interventions, combining individual, community and environmental approaches, have the greatest potential to improve public health, but few have been evaluated.Approximately 100,000 people may benefit from improved opportunities for physical activity through an urban regeneration project in Northern Ireland, the Connswater Community Greenway. Using the macro-simulation PREVENT model, we estimated its potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness. To do so, we modelled its potential impact on the burden from cardiovascular disease, namely, ischaemic heart disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus and stroke, and colon and breast cancer, by the year 2050, if feasible increases in physical activity were to be achieved.If 10% of those classified as 'inactive' (perform less than 150 minutes of moderate activity/week) became 'active', 886 incident cases (1.2%) and 75 deaths (0.9%) could be prevented with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4469/disability-adjusted life year. For effectiveness estimates as low as 2%, the intervention would remain cost-effective (£18 411/disability-adjusted life year). Small gains in average life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy could be achieved, and the Greenway population would benefit from 46 less years lived with disability.The Greenway intervention could be cost-effective at improving physical activity levels. Although the direct health gains are predicted to be small for any individual, summed over an entire population, they are substantial. In addition, the Greenway is likely to have much wider benefits beyond health.

DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2015-052265

2015

Cited 52 times

The impact of cigarette smoking on life expectancy between 1980 and 2010: a global perspective

Tobacco smoking is among the leading causes of preventable mortality worldwide. We assessed the impact of smoking on life expectancy worldwide between 1980 and 2010.We retrieved cause-specific mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database by sex, year and age for 63 countries with high or moderate quality data (1980-2010). Using the time of the peak of the smoking epidemic by country, relative risks from the three waves of the Cancer Prevention Study were applied to calculate the smoking impact ratio and population attributable fraction. Finally, we estimated the potential gain in life expectancy at age 40 if smoking-related deaths in middle age (40-79 years) were eliminated.Currently, tobacco smoking is related to approximately 20% of total adult mortality in the countries in this study (24% in men and 12% in women). If smoking-related deaths were eliminated, adult life expectancy would increase on average by 2.4 years in men (0.1 in Uzbekistan to 4.8 years in Hungary) and 1 year in women (0.1 in Kyrgyzstan to 2.9 years in the USA). The proportion of smoking-related mortality among men has declined in most countries, but has increased in the most populous country in the world, that is, China from 4.6% to 7.3%. Increases in the impact of tobacco on life expectancy were observed among women in high-income countries.Recent trends indicate a substantial rise in the population-level impact of tobacco smoking on life expectancy in women and in middle-income countries. High-quality local data are needed in most low-income countries.

DOI: 10.1016/j.radonc.2014.04.011

2014

Cited 45 times

Second primary cancers in survivors of cervical cancer in the Netherlands: Implications for prevention and surveillance

<h2>Abstract</h2><h3>Background and purpose</h3> We investigated the effects of socio-demographic, treatment- and tumor-specific determinants on the risk of developing a second malignancy among patients treated for cervical cancer. <h3>Material and methods</h3> We included patients with a first cervical cancer (<i>N</i>=12,048) from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), 1989–2008. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risks (AER) per 10,000 person-years were calculated to estimate the burden of second cancers in cervical cancer survivors. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were computed to identify predictors for second cancers among cervical cancer survivors. <h3>Results</h3> During the study period, 676 (5.6%) patients were diagnosed with a second cancer. Smoking-related cancers contributed the most to the overall burden of second cancers (AER=21) and risks remained elevated after 10years of follow-up (SIR=1.8, 95% CI: 1.4–2.2), yet it decreased markedly in the younger birth cohorts. Cervical cancer survivors who underwent radiotherapy were at higher risk for a second tumor when compared to those without radiotherapy, especially at smoking-related sites (IRR=1.6 (1.2–2.3)). <h3>Conclusion</h3> Patients with cervical cancer had a significantly increased risk for a second cancer compared to the general population, especially for smoking- and irradiation-related tumors. Long-term follow-up suggested the importance of smoking cessation and the benefits of counseling cervical cancer patients accordingly, particularly those who received radiotherapy.

DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2017-104858

2018

Cited 44 times

Occupational exposures and cancer: a review of agents and relative risk estimates

Objectives The contribution of occupational exposures to the cancer burden can be estimated using population-attributable fractions, which is of great importance for policy making. This paper reviews occupational carcinogens, and presents the most relevant risk relations to cancer in high-income countries using France as an example, to provide a framework for national estimation of cancer burden attributable to occupational exposure. Methods Occupational exposures that should be included in cancer burden studies were evaluated using multiple criteria: classified as carcinogenic or probably carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monographs volumes 1–114, being a primary occupational exposure, historical and current presence of the exposure in France and the availability of exposure and risk relation data. Relative risk estimates were obtained from published systematic reviews and from the IARC Monographs. Results Of the 118 group 1 and 75 group 2A carcinogens, 37 exposures and 73 exposure-cancer site pairs were relevant. Lung cancer was associated with the most occupational carcinogenic exposures (namely, 18), followed by bladder cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Ionising radiation was associated with the highest number of cancer sites (namely, 20), followed by asbestos and working in the rubber manufacturing industry. Asbestos, bis(chloromethyl)ether, nickel and wood dust had the strongest effect on cancer, with relative risks above 5. Conclusions A large number of occupational exposures continues to impact the burden of cancer in high-income countries such as France. Information on types of exposures, affected jobs, industries and cancer sites affected is key for prioritising policy and prevention initiatives.

DOI: 10.1007/s00520-014-2480-0

2014

Cited 43 times

Association of change in physical activity and body weight with quality of life and mortality in colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

DOI: 10.1007/s40471-016-0085-5

2016

Cited 43 times

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning.

DOI: 10.1007/s10654-016-0169-z

2016

Cited 41 times

Overweight duration in older adults and cancer risk: a study of cohorts in Europe and the United States

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12–1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.07.015

2019

Cited 40 times

Cancers in France in 2015 attributable to occupational exposures

Recent and comprehensive estimates for the number of new cancer cases in France attributable to occupational exposures are lacking.To estimate the number of new cancer cases attributable to occupational exposures, using a newly developed methodology and the most recent data, for a comprehensive set of occupational carcinogens in France in 2015.Surveys among employees, the national labor force data, a cohort of agricultural workers, national monitoring of workers exposed to ionizing radiation and job-exposure matrix in France were used. The number and proportion of new cancer cases attributable to established occupational carcinogens (Group 1) was estimated using estimation of lifetime exposure and risk estimates from cohort studies. Cancer data were obtained from the French Cancer Registries Network.In France in 2015, an estimated 7905 new cancer cases, 7336 among men and 569 among women, were attributable to occupational exposures, representing 2.3% of all new cancer cases (3.9% and 0.4% among men and women respectively). Among men and women, lung cancer was impacted the most, followed by mesothelioma and bladder cancer in men, and by mesothelioma and ovary in women. These cancers contributed to 89% of the total cancers attributable to occupational carcinogens in men, and to 80% in women. The main contributing occupational agent was asbestos among men (45%) and women (60%).Currently, occupational exposures contribute to a substantial burden of cancer in France. Enhanced monitoring and implementation of protective labor policies could potentially prevent a large proportion of these cancers.

Isabelle Soerjomataram

Here are all the papers by Isabelle Soerjomataram that you can download and read on OA.mg.Isabelle Soerjomataram’s last known institution is . Download Isabelle Soerjomataram PDFs here.

Here are all the papers by Isabelle Soerjomataram that you can download and read on OA.mg.
Isabelle Soerjomataram’s last known institution is . Download Isabelle Soerjomataram PDFs here.